Rest of Season First Base Rankings (May Update)

The next stop in our Rest-of-Season rankings update is first base. Recently, RotoBaller writers and rankers Nick Mariano, Pierre Camus, Bill Dubiel and Scott Engel updated their 2019 fantasy baseball rankings, available on our dashboard. We always give our readers the very latest rankings, which are continually updated based on injuries, playing time, and performance trends.

If you recall from draft day, first base is largely devoid of high-end talent this year. Those who chose to forego a top-flight 1B pick like Cody Bellinger, Freddie Freeman, or Rhys Hoskins are likely kicking themselves. Many of the later options like Joey Votto, Jesus Aguilar, and Miguel Cabrera just haven't produced, while Matt Olson remains on the IL. Luckily, a few sleepers have emerged and you can see a dramatic shift in these rankings from just one month ago.

Since you're already here, why not stay a while and check out our analysis on updated rankings for second base, shortstop, outfield, and starting pitchers? Now, with no more delay, let's break down the 2019 first base rest-of-season rankings for May.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and weekly lineup resources:

• Nick Mariano's fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups (Premium)
• Start/Sit recommendations - All Pitcher Matchups for Week Ahead
• Fantasy baseball waiver wire rankings (top 80 players)
• FAAB fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups
• Starting pitcher fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups
• Outfield fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups
• 1B/3B fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups
• 2B/SS fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups
• Catcher fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups
• Hitter streamers - fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups
• Two-start pitcher streamers - fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups
• Cut List- Players To Consider Dropping

 

First Base Tiered Ranks - 5x5 Mixed Leagues (May)

In case you missed it, our very own "Big Pick Nick" Mariano was recently named the #1 overall most accurate industry expert ranker for the 2018 season. You can see his secret sauce below! Additionally, industry legend Scott Engel recently joined the RotoBaller team and provides his insights as well. Scott is an FSWA Hall Of Famer and award winner.

Rank	Tier	Player	Position	Nick	Pierre	Bill	Scott
1	1	Cody Bellinger	1B/OF	3	9	19	6
2	1	Paul Goldschmidt	1B	16	20	21	19
3	2	Freddie Freeman	1B	29	18	20	18
4	2	Rhys Hoskins	1B/OF	22	28	40	24
5	2	Anthony Rizzo	1B	43	29	30	29
6	2	Jose Abreu	1B	52	58	68	47
7	3	Joey Gallo	3B/1B/OF	26	59	90	65
8	3	Matt Carpenter	1B/2B/3B	102	75	76	91
9	4	Daniel Murphy	1B/2B	72	107	60	114
10	4	J.T. Realmuto	C/1B	119	83	94	58
11	4	Pete Alonso	1B	68	70	152	64
12	4	Luke Voit	1B	71	88	135	80
13	4	Edwin Encarnacion	1B	109	104	84	122
14	4	Robinson Cano	1B/2B	148	97	103	109
15	4	Joey Votto	1B	96	138	63	174
16	4	Josh Bell	1B	127	110	138	112
17	4	Travis Shaw	1B/2B/3B	159	140	113	147
18	5	Christian Walker	1B	137	136	158	145
19	5	Matt Olson	1B	100	175	157	167
20	5	Jesus Aguilar	1B	156	134	150	173
20	5	Carlos Santana	1B/3B	170	163	115	180
21	5	Max Muncy	1B/2B/3B	115	215	159	141
22	5	Trey Mancini	1B/OF	134	216	172	146
23	5	Ryan McMahon	1B/3B/2B	176	170	205	227
24	6	Ryan Braun	1B/OF	195	206	147	236
25	6	Miguel Cabrera	1B	212	248	129	213
26	6	Daniel Vogelbach	1B	152	249	209	229
27	6	Justin Smoak	1B	251	241	239	204
28	6	Niko Goodrum	1B/2B/3B/SS/OF	248	242	255	202
29	6	Jose Martinez	OF/1B	269	196	201	285
31	6	Eric Hosmer	1B	229	284	219	226
32	6	Ian Desmond	OF/1B	286	312	247	211
33	6	Jay Bruce	OF/1B	153	265	362	281
34	7	Rowdy Tellez	1B	277	259	260	#N/A
35	7	Jurickson Profar	SS/3B/1B/2B	275	301	225	264
36	7	C.J. Cron	1B	295	261	297	237
37	7	Jake Bauers	1B/OF	307	263	299	261
38	7	Mitch Moreland	1B	272	383	237	#N/A
39	7	Buster Posey	C/1B	342	319	264	273
40	7	Ryan Zimmerman	1B	376	315	213	#N/A
41	7	Yuli Gurriel	1B/2B/3B	349	344	263	278
42	7	Eric Thames	1B/OF	233	270	437	295
43	7	Ryan O'Hearn	1B	312	266	383	#N/A
44	8	Ronald Guzman	1B	398	287	301	#N/A
45	8	Miguel Sano	1B/3B	278	391	366	289
46	8	Brandon Belt	1B/OF	352	353	318	#N/A
47	8	Ryon Healy	1B	#N/A	309	444	299
48	8	Tyler White	1B	358	375	328	#N/A
49	8	Wilmer Flores	1B/3B/2B	341	355	376	#N/A
50	8	Tucker Barnhart	C/1B	433	373	344	300
51	8	Ronny Rodriguez	1B/2B/3B/SS	374	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
52	8	Nate Lowe	1B	265	490	#N/A	#N/A
53	8	Marwin Gonzalez	1B/2B/SS/OF	408	463	279	#N/A
54	8	Justin Bour	1B	384	453	335	#N/A
55	8	Yonder Alonso	1B	499	330	467	290
56	8	Kendrys Morales	1B	402	481	309	#N/A
57	8	Neil Walker	1B/2B	359	414	421	#N/A
58	8	Chris Davis	1B	297	474	452	#N/A
59	8	Albert Pujols	1B	403	459	422	#N/A
60	8	Matt Adams	1B	407	454	#N/A	#N/A
61	8	Colin Moran	3B/1B	477	397	476	#N/A
62	8	Steve Pearce	1B/2B/OF	#N/A	439	471	#N/A
63	8	John Hicks	C/1B	#N/A	429	488	#N/A
64	8	Dominic Smith	1B	#N/A	#N/A	466	#N/A
65	9	Greg Bird	1B	#N/A	470	477	#N/A
66	9	Adam Duvall	1B/OF	#N/A	#N/A	500	#N/A
67	9	Tyler Austin	1B	#N/A	#N/A	532	#N/A
68	9	Jedd Gyorko	1B/3B	#N/A	#N/A	534	#N/A

 

Rankings Analysis - Top Tiers

Tier One

It's Cody Bellinger's world - we're all just living in it and waiting for the natural regression of a player who hit in the .260s his first two years and is enjoying an even K-BB rate, despite striking out at a rate 10 points higher than his current 14.3% K%. This isn't to say Bellinger will be a second-half flop but if you have him on your team and need help elsewhere, it wouldn't hurt to try selling at peak value.

Tier Two

Like most Cubs, Anthony Rizzo was slow out the gate this year but is starting to heat up. He's logged four multi-hit games in the last seven and has slugged four homers since the calendar turned to May. As a reliable run-producer who's seen more than 600 plate appearances in six straight seasons, Rizzo is a solid top-five player at first base.

There were some concerns about Jose Abreu being in decline after a rough 2018 filled with slumps and injuries. I'd say he has allayed those concerns fairly well after one month. Abreu ranks in the 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, ranking fourth at 57.9%. He's also second in Barrel rate, ranks in the 95th percentile for xSLG and 91st for xwOBA. So he's doing OK.

Tier Three

I won't get too deep into Gallo's profile here because a) we know what he is by now, and b) you may not necessarily be using him at first base. I will note that the top fantasy baseball ranker in all the land last year, Nick Mariano, has him 27 overall, higher than Hoskins, Rizzo, and even Freeman. Maybe we should learn to love Gallo and live with the strikeouts.

Matt Carpenter is the only other 1B-qualifying player in this tier and if you're using him at this position rather than the middle infield, things have gone wrong somewhere along the way. He's supposed to be the type of player you don't need to use at the corners because he's better off giving you a power boost at second base, because that position is thinner in fantasy. At least it used to be.

 

Rankings Analysis - Middle Tiers

Tier Four

In this tier, it's a matter of which New York slugger you prefer. Both Pete Alonso and Luke Voit have lived up to their preseason sleeper status so far, although Bill Dubs is not buying it just yet based on his bearish ranking. They each have posted elite xSLG numbers and have locked down a starting job the rest of this season, barring injury. Between the two, I give the slight edge to Alonso because of lineup position. Both primarily reside in the second spot of the lineup but Voit could get pushed down once the Yankees actually get their main players like Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge back.

Is Joey Votto still on here? He's only two years removed from nearly being the MVP but since then it's just been downhill. Votto remains a top-100 player for Nick, while Bill may be having flashbacks to 2017 with a ranking of 63 overall but I'm done with him for good. The Reds as a team may improve their offense (they have nowhere to go but up) but that doesn't mean Votto will be a big part of that. As Kanye once said, "You can't tell me nothin'!"

I am totally buying the Josh Bell renaissance. A sophomore slump soured us all on the former top prospect in the Steel City, reflected in his 249 preseason ADP. Despite an increased strikeout rate, he's posting elite Statcast numbers in the 95th percentile or higher of exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xSLG and xwOBA. He could end up being the best value pick at this position by season's end.

Tier Five

Matt Olson is back in the A's lineup and went 2-for-4 with a double on the 9th. We heard the cautionary tales of how his wrist injury might affect his swing for a while even when he's cleared to play. Doesn't seem that way. Olson is someone I'll be moving back up the rankings soon.

It was pretty exciting when Jesus Aguilar went yard thrice in two days and we immediately assumed he was back. He hasn't homered since May began but at least his average has inched back up to .181! Believe it or not, his plate discipline is better than last year and there aren't any big red flags to worry about so keep exploring a buy-low scenario if possible.

Tier Six

In the same vein as Votto, I'm all but throwing in the towel on a pair of former MVPs. Miggy and Braun aren't recapturing their former glory and should be viewed as CI options in 12+ team leagues. Braun can still drive in runs in that Brewers lineup and Cabrera is hitting for average but that's about it. One look at the overall profile shows that these two rank 24th and 41st respectively in terms of overall value in 5x5 leagues among players who qualify at first base.

Can you ride with Daniel Vogelbach the rest of the season? Nick definitely thinks so, ranking him inside his top 150 while nobody else has him as a top-200 player. Since his amazing week, he's only homered once since April 20th (coincidence?) which is a span of 16 games. He's struggling hard against lefties with a .118 average, so don't be surprised if his ABs start to be limited, especially once Kyle Seager comes off the injured list in late May or early June.

 

Rankings Analysis - Lower Tiers

Tier Seven

Jay Bruce is doing his best Jay Bruce impression this year in Seattle. The power will play in roto but at the expense of batting average, which currently sits at .186. The fact that his BABIP is .164 isn't encouraging, it's downright scary.

I'm keeping the faith in Ronald Guzman as a less-frightening source of power among lower-tier first base options. He just came off the IL and should resume duties as an everyday starter. He is a lottery ticket at this point but one I'm willing to invest a roster spot in.

Same goes for Ryan O'Hearn, whose Statcast numbers suggest he's due for some better luck soon. He's got a tremendous 51.3% hard-hit rate, so if he can stop hitting the ball on the ground so much, the numbers could rise. Hear that, Rafael Devers?

Tier Eight and lower

Nate Lowe was a popular waiver add 10 days ago because of his mammoth raw power. 35 at-bats and zero homers later, he's already being dropped everywhere. As long as he doesn't embarrass himself at the plate, which he hasn't so far, the Rays will give him every chance to keep playing.

Yonder Alonso isn't exciting and never has been, but he's been at least a 20-HR guy the last two seasons that won't kill your average. This year, he's killing your average. For a young, non-contending team like the White Sox, Alonso might be cast aside if he doesn't turn things around quickly.

Kendrys Morales might also become a victim of the numbers game, as Oakland has plenty of young prospects ready to take his place.

I wish there were more young 1B prospects on the cusp of making an impact this year, but as of right now the best we can do is hope that Yordan Alvarez gets called up and sees enough time to qualify at the position. As you may know, I'm a big fan.

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