Lotto Time - Late Draft Picks that Could Pay Off

Late-round fliers and sleeper draft picks for 2018 fantasy football leagues. Elliott Baas picks three unexciting but potentially valuable lotto tickets to take a chance on.

During the draft season, we love to get hyped up on young, up-and-coming players. Spinning yarns about future stardom and inflating their draft price to the point where many of these sleepers are no longer values.

The purpose of this article is to try and identify sleepers that no one is excited about - the broken, the damaged, and the ghosts of fantasy seasons past.

These are unexciting lottery tickets that could pay off towards the end of drafts this season.

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Scratch-Off Specials

Eli Manning, New York Giants: Current ADP 153

Do you like Saquon Barkley? What about Odell Beckham Jr.? Evan Engram? All of those players are being drafted at sixth or higher at their positions, yet Manning is currently the 21st quarterback off the board. It’s really easy to dislike Manning’s prospects coming into the season. He was the 24th ranked quarterback in standard scoring last season, behind the likes of Jacoby Brissett and Josh McCown. He was a bottom five quarterback in both average intended air yards and average completed air yards, which essentially means he wasn’t attempting or completing deep passes. The Giants’ offensive line was atrocious last season, and Manning had the fifth lowest time to throw among NFL quarterbacks in 2017. Those are the reasons to pass on Manning. At this point in the draft season, he’s not only essentially free, but it seems unlikely much hype will be generated about him. Why get all hot-and-bothered over a 37-year-old coming off two straight down seasons when younger players like Mitchell Trubisky, Marcus Mariota, and Derek Carr are going at a similar cost?

The reason to take a chance on Manning isn’t based on his abilities, which are undeniably in decline. Rather, it’s because his situation has been vastly improved compared to last season. The Giants spent the second overall pick on Barkley, who will be a big part of the short passing game and help mask Manning’s struggles throwing the ball downfield. The Giants also upgraded their offensive line by signing Nate Solder to play left tackle and drafting Will Hernandez to play left guard. They also hired Pat Shurmur as their head coach, who has squeezed every ounce of talent out of Sam Bradford, Nick Foles, and Case Keenum in previous seasons. Manning bounced back once after a disastrous 2013 season for two straight seasons with 30 or more passing touchdowns, and if the Giants’ revamped offense succeeds Eli will be its facilitator. We could be looking at one last hurrah for the younger Manning brother this season.

Terrelle Pryor, New York Jets: Current ADP 230

Pryor fell flat on his face during his only season in Washington. He followed up his 1000 yard 2016 with a season of injuries and letdowns, culminating in just nine games played, 240 receiving yards, and one touchdown before hitting injured reserve in November. Just when Pyror’s fantasy stock seemingly couldn’t sink lower he signed a one year contract with the least exciting team in the NFL, the New York Jets. He’s being drafted at pick 226 per Fantasy Football Calculator ADP, meaning Pryor isn’t even being selected in 12 team leagues. Often times players that come off injury or disappoint us are written off, but at this price it’s worth taking a late round stab on Pryor.

Pryor suffered his ankle injury in week one and played through it for seven more games before Washington decided to shut him down for the season. Pryor himself acknowledged the injury impacted his performance, and it’s easy to see why a receiver that grades in the 99th percentile of speed score would struggle to overcome this type of injury. Pryor’s best skill as a player has always been raw physical attributes. It’s the reason he was able to convert from a quarterback to a wide receiver and post a 1000 yard season in his first full year as a wideout.

When considering whether to draft Pryor you may look at the Jets’ depth chart and get the urge to vomit. The dearth of talent on this roster is glaring, which is the exact type of scenario in which Pryor thrived in 2016. In fact, with Pryor, Josh McCown, and Isaiah Crowell in the skill positions it looks like the Jets are trying to recreate the 2016 Cleveland Browns offense. Pryor was the 15th best wide receiver in standard scoring that season, and he did it with the unholy combination of McCown, Cody Kessler, and Robert Griffin III throwing him the ball. Pryor has had two years as a receiver, one good and one plagued with injury. If we’re throwing darts at the end of the draft Pryor represents someone with a recent history of success.

Chris Ivory, Buffalo Bills: Current ADP 179

It’s always tough to deal with legal situations in fantasy football, especially since the NFL has proven to be inconsistent with its punitive measures regarding domestic violence situations in the past. Regardless, the fantasy fallout of a potential LeSean McCoy suspension would shift the entire outlook of the Bills offense and the landscape of the first three rounds. The Bills were a team that relied heavily on the run last season, having the fifth most rush attempts in the league under head coach Sean McDermott. Part of their reliance on the run was certainly because of McCoy’s talent, but new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has also used a rush-heavy approach in his previous stints as an offensive coordinator. He had top talent with Jamal Charles in Kansas City and Reggie Bush in Miami, but also got career seasons out of Peyton Hillis and Jerome Harrison in Cleveland. A starting running back is always valuable in fantasy football, but the Bills look like a team that is going to run a lot regardless of whether they have McCoy or Chris Ivory.

If the Bills had a younger, more exciting running back behind McCoy that hypothetical player would have shot up draft boards, but based on ADP data from fantasyfootballcalculator.com Ivory’s draft position hasn’t risen much yet. Here’s a chart graphing his ADP this year.

He is starting to rise, and his climb up the draft board reflects his running style; slow, plodding, but on the move. He only went up seven picks from 14.09 to 14.02. Even with the very real prospect of becoming a starting running back nobody wants Ivory. His two years in Jacksonville left a bad taste in fantasy owners’ mouths. When he was crowned starter in Jacksonville they had an atrocious offensive line, and the coaching staff showed a reluctance to give Ivory the volume he needed to succeed. He only topped 15 carries twice with the Jaguars in 2016, his year as a starter. Effectiveness was an issue for him, but it’s hard to put all the blame on Ivory in a situation that was not conducive to his success.

Even if McCoy only winds up with a partial suspension or no suspension there is reason to be bullish on Ivory as a handcuff. Between last draft season and now McCoy crossed two important thresholds. He now has over 2000 career carries and turned 30 last week. He finished with the second most carries in the NFL last season (287) and if the Bills plan on using him as much again this season the risk for injury is only going to increase. Ivory is also 30 but has over 1000 fewer carries in his career. Behind McCoy the Bills’ depth chart at RB is barren, mostly consisting of small, pass-catcher types like Travaris Cadet and Taiwan Jones. Only Ivory has the size and experience to handle a full load. For those that worry about effectiveness, remember that Frank Gore was the number 18 running back in standard scoring last season averaging just 3.68 YPC. Ivory is a potential low-end RB2/RB3 going in the last round of drafts.

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