RADIO
Any of us that love the sport of golf have a course that is our favorite to play. It can be our favorite course for a variety of different reasons...maybe it’s because we like the way the greens roll or it’s where we shot our lowest round ever. Perhaps the course sets up well for our ball flight or we like the type of sand in the bunkers. Maybe we can’t quite put our finger on why we like it, but we just feel confident when we play there. The pros on the PGA TOUR are world class golfers. They can play great anywhere, but they are like us in at least one way...they have favorite courses too.
Horse For The Course will take a look at players that have traditionally flourished at the course that hosts this week’s PGA TOUR event. "The Horse" is a player with an elite course history and that has a great chance to repeat his success in this week's tournament. "The Ponies" are players with very good course history, that might be entering this week's tournament under the radar or have a DFS price that is a great value.
For a full review of the DraftKings PGA Slate this weekend, check out Seth Finklestein's column reviewing picks at every price point.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
The Course: Quail Hollow Club (Charlotte, NC), 7,554 yards, Par 71
The PGA Tour heads to Charlotte for this week's Wells Fargo Championship. DFS players have tons of course history to draw from this week, Quail Hollow has hosted a PGA Tour tournament since 2003. The tournament was played at Eagle Pointe Golf Club last year while Quail Hollow was preparing to host the PGA Championship. Since it was played at a different course, last year's Wells Fargo results will not factor into our course history evaluation. In preparation for the 2017 PGA Championship, three new holes were built on the front nine and a new green was built on the 11th hole. The focus of Quail Hollow continues to be the famously difficult closing three-hole stretch known as "The Green Mile".
The Horse
Rory McIlroy (DraftKings - $11,800 & FanDuel - $12,300)
Rory McIlroy is one of the game's greatest players. There are numerous courses around the world where McIlroy has logged wins and low rounds, but his track record at Quail Hollow is especially dominant. His course history in Charlotte is impressive; wins in 2010 and 2015, a second after losing in a playoff in 2012, a T-8 in 2014, and a T-4 in 2016. He finished T-22 at last year's PGA Championship that was played at Quail Hollow, despite his game not being in a great place. To say that Rory is comfortable at this track is an understatement.
While Rory's success at Quail Hollow isn't necessarily a surprise, some of his scores are very eye-opening. McIlroy picked up his first PGA Tour win in 2010 at Quail Hollow by shooting a course record 62 in the final round. He then broke his own record by firing a 61 in the 3rd round of the 2015 Wells Fargo en route to winning for the second time at Quail Hollow. These unbelievably low rounds equal what DFS players are looking for...fantasy points. When Rory gets hot, he can almost single-handedly carry a fantasy lineup into the money.
McIlroy is the highest priced player on DraftKings this week at $11,800 and he is also the current Vegas odds-on favorite to win the Wells Fargo Championship. His ability to go low and accumulate fantasy points virtually put him into a league of his own this week. Between being the highest priced player available and his recent failure in the final round of the Masters, some DFS players might shy away from Rory this week. Despite his failings at Augusta, Rory has played extremely well over the past month, as evidenced by his win at The Arnold Palmer Invitational and his near-miss at the Masters. This is the perfect situation to target Rory; he's in the groove with his swing, on a hot streak with the putter, he has tons of confidence at Quail Hollow, and you have to believe there is an extra bit of motivation following the Masters disappointment. The combination of his explosive upside and dominant course history make Rory McIlroy this week's Horse for the Course.
The Ponies
Phil Mickelson (DK - $9,200 & FD - $11,600)
This week's Wells Fargo Championship will mark Phil Mickelson's first tournament since a disappointing Masters appearance. Lefty has been experiencing a career renaissance in 2018, reeling of three straight Top-10's before picking up his first win in nearly five years at the WGC-Mexico in March.
Mickelson has never won at Quail Hollow, but has played extremely well in Charlotte throughout his career. Since his Quail Hollow debut in 2004, Mickelson has a mind-boggling seven Top-5 finishes! He also has three Top-10 finishes and has never finished lower than 35th place in a regular PGA tournament at Quail Hollow. Mickelson did miss the cut at last year's 2017 PGA Championship that was held at Quail Hollow when he was playing some of the worst golf of his career.
Phil is slotted at an interesting price point on DraftKings this week, his $9,200 price tag makes him $100 more expensive than Tiger Woods. I imagine that Tiger will soak up a lot of the ownership between the two at this price range. We must also consider the fact that Phil disappointed a lot of DFS players at the Masters, so recency bias could also help to lower Mickelson's ownership this week. I've never felt super-confident about playing Phil in cash games over the past couple of years due to his inconsistency, but at this price and in his current form, Mickelson is very playable in all formats this week.
James Hahn (DK - $7,800 & FD - $8,500)
Well, we can't fill out our lineups using just the high-priced Rory's and Phil's of the world. Let's look a little lower down the pricing scale at James Hahn. Priced at $7,800 on DraftKings and $8,500 on FanDuel, Hahn offers some nice salary relief. He doesn't have an extensive course history, but we have to love what he has done at Quail Hollow over the past two years. When Quail Hollow hosted the 2017 PGA Championship last year, Hahn came through with a 13th place finish in a tough, star-studded field. This followed his performance in the 2016 Wells Fargo where he held off the likes of Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, and Rory McIlroy to win the championship.
Hahn has quietly played excellent golf in 2018. Following a 2nd place finish at the Sony Open in January, Hahn reeled off seven consecutive cuts made. He has only missed one cut in 2018, with some nice finishes including the 2nd in Hawaii, an 11th at the Waste Management Open, and a 14th at the Genesis Open. Hahn offers tons of scoring upside, he ranks 38th on the PGA Tour in Total Birdies and 26th in Par 5 Birdie of Better Percentage. He has the ability to go low, shooting a 62 in the Sony Open to kickoff 2018.
Hahn should be a nice under the radar play in DraftKings GPP's this week. His FanDuel price of $8,500 is an absolute steal and he can be used in cash games on that site. He offers the price break we need to get Rory McIlroy into lineups and has lots of upside at his $7,800 price tag. I expect Hahn to play well this week. I will be using him heavily in FanDuel cash games and in GPP lineups on DraftKings.
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