RADIO
Nick Mariano looks at some premier waiver wire pickups and adds for Week 1 of the 2018 fantasy baseball season - players owned in 25-50% of Yahoo leagues.
First, winter was here and the night was truly dark and full of terrors. But now, now it's Opening Day and the ills of the world are all invited to screw off. I love you all, what a great day!
In light of this, let's give that free agent pool one last look over before the stats start flying. Today, we'll look at players who are owned in roughly 25-50% of Yahoo leagues and see who stands out.
These are your Week 1 waiver wire pickups and adds - players that should be considered as additions to your teams after your drafts have already been completed.
25-50% Owned Waiver Wire Adds
Catcher
Austin Barnes (C/2B, LAD)
36% owned
Barnes pushed aside Yasmani Grandal for starts down the stretch last year by rocking an .895 OPS with eight homers and four steals in 262 plate appearances, which led to his also starting over Grandal through much of the postseason. Grandal is no slouch, especially defensively, and he’s also on the last year of his contract. The age-28 Barnes and his “J.T. Realmuto but with more power” needs to be watched like a hawk should he get four or more starts a week, let alone if Grandal goes down or is traded.
Chris Iannetta (C, COL)
33% owned
Most of you expect nothing from your catcher slot, but that doesn’t have to be the case! The 35-year-old Iannetta quietly enjoyed 2017’s homer party with 17 dingers in just 316 PAs for Arizona, and he now leaves the humidor-stricken Chase Field behind him as he heads to the only park that was more hitter-friendly last season. Say it with me now: “Coooooors”. C’mon, say it like you’re one of those objectively-wrong people who doesn’t think Larry Walker should be in the Hall of Fame!
Seriously though, Iannetta may not do much more than hit 20-plus homers, but what more do you need? You know the counting stats should be decent in that lineup, too. If you want metrics, his average exit velocity of 93.8 MPH on liners and fly balls was tied with Yasmani Grandal and Welington Castillo. I want Tom Murphy to be a thing just as much as the next writer, but Iannetta is the backstop to own.
First Base
Yonder Alonso (1B, CLE)
42% owned
Damn, y’all are fickle. Remember when Alonso made the American League All-Star squad last year with an awesome first half? Or are you really that burned by the second half that you’re just out on the guy? Even if I grant you that he’s the type who can’t keep this up all year based on a one-year sample size, Alonso was ID’d last year as a potential breakout by Eno Sarris due to his fly-ball ways in Spring Training. He then encountered a timing issue in the second half and things never really settled back in.
Well, guess what? He’s now in a better park for lefties to mash, surrounded by a better lineup to keep those counting stats juicy and, and, his timing is looking pretty good right now. This is one of those times where you do have to take spring numbers into account because he’s tied for the ST lead with seven homers alongside a mighty 1.284 OPS. If he comes close to hitting 20 first-half homers with a .275 average on this team, you’re going to look silly having let someone else scoop him up.
Jose Martinez (1B/OF, STL)
22% owned
Martinez looks like he could be the next late bloomer to turn into a power stud after tallying a .309/.379/.518 triple slash in 307 big-league PAs for St. Louis. I’m sure you’ve heard about his wild 2017 and his 90.4 MPH average exit velocity, good for 26th on the leaderboard (min. 100 batted-ball events) right in between Carlos Correa and Robinson Cano. Out of batters with at least 300 PAs, Martinez’s line-drive rate of 26.6 percent was the eighth best.
He can play first base and spell the corner-outfield spots, and is really just one injury to Matt Carpenter, Jedd Gyorko, Kolten Wong or Paul DeJong away from everyday ABs. Carpenter, Gyorko and even Wong are no bastions of health and it’s conceivable that J-Mart just pushes his way into the lineup anyhow, making the six-foot-seven powerhouse a premier stash.
Second Base
Cesar Hernandez (2B, PHI)
46% owned
Everyone’s over here freaking out about Scott Kingery (which I get) and yet, Hernandez’s moderate yet dependable output is being overlooked in too many leagues. Maybe you feel like he’s been around for too long and just isn’t exciting, but he’s only 27! He’s hit exactly .294 in each of his past two seasons and was able to crank nine homers alongside 15 steals in 128 games last year. Oh, and he scored 85 runs in that shortened season.
The Phillies lineup is much improved and only getting better, and Hernandez should score 100-plus runs while threatening for double-digit homers and 20 steals with an average sniffing .300 if he gets a full season in. Take advantage of everyone going after the shiny new toy and pencil Cesar in as your keystone for cheap.
Neil Walker (1B/2B, NYY)
16% owned
We’ll dig a bit deeper here to speak on Walker, who was mercifully plucked from the free-agent pool already by the Yankees. When a guy gets into the Yankees starting lineup, then you probably want to pluck them from the FA pool as well. While Walker has had some durability concerns lately, he costs almost nothing to plug in at either 1B or 2B and could turn in a 25-homer pace in the Bronx before any assortment of Greg Bird, Gleyber Torres or Miguel Andujar push him to the bench. Bonus points if you have a deep enough bench where you can play him only against righties, against whom he hit .279 with all 14 of his homers against in 351 PAs last season (.214, 0 HRs in 97 PAs vs. LHP). Ideally, the Yanks will do the platooning for you since they can also see those gaudy splits, but still, “the more you know”.
Third Base
Matt Chapman (3B, OAK)
33% owned
Chapman could end up being the most valuable Matt in Oakland’s starting lineup by the end of 2018, as the star defender also boasts a power bat yet to be recognized at the Major League level. Chapman’s 14 homers in 326 PAs is decent, but not enough to offset a zero in steals and a .234 average. However, he cranked 36 jacks in 2016 and had hit 16 bombs in just 204 Triple-A PAs prior to his promotion last year. He has a real shot at 30-35 homers, and a walk rate around 10 percent plus the astounding defense will keep him in the lineup through any cold streaks. Don’t just blindly extrapolate the MLB numbers from last year, there’s more in the tank!
Matt Davidson (1B/3B)
9% owned
Davidson is a poor defender and has some pretty crummy contact skills, leading some to want Yolmer Sanchez playing third for the South Siders instead (sorry, I wrongfully called them the North Siders originally). If that isn’t a ringing endorsement then I don’t know what is! Luckily, the Chi Sox play in the A.L. and have the DH slot to fall back on. Double luckily, Davidson hit .328 with a 1.005 OPS this spring and has earned some playing time. Fantasy owners will only care about his defense, or even his contact, enough to the point where he plays and let’s his one premier tool -- power -- shine through. His 26 HRs in 443 PAs were solid, but the .220 average (and .260 OBP) were tough to absorb. At least Joey Gallo walks a ton. Davidson will need to be a bit better than he was, but the potential for a 30-homer year seems worth the gamble.
Shortstop
Andrelton Simmons (SS, LAA)
50% owned
I have to assume that his homerless (and unlucky) September left a sour taste in everyone’s mouth, and that’s why he’s not being drafted like a guy who nearly went 15HR/20SB with a helpful average that is now part of a juiced lineup. Or maybe folks don’t trust the gains considering his reputation for being a glove-only player? Either way, their loss is your gain. Simba won’t endure many .242 BABIP, 0% HR/FB rate months like September, though. Even if he’s stuck batting in the bottom-third of the order, he should vie for 70 runs and RBI and contribute to all five categories, albeit without standing out in any.
Marcus Semien (SS, OAK)
40% owned
Semien is poised to split leadoff duties with Matt Joyce for Oakland, with the 27-year-old seeking a rebound to his 600-plus PA seasons in 2018 and challenging for a 100-20-75-15-.250 season. It’s very unlikely his average jumps much past that, but he did pop 27 homers in 2016 so you’re not buying his power ceiling here. And we can’t forget how he hit 10 homers with 12 steals in just 85 games last year, which makes his steal ceiling closer to 25 bags. Don’t just pick the good parts of a player and build a projection, but he’s young and will have access to a great lineup spot in a sneaky-powerful A’s lineup.
Outfield
Michael Brantley (OF, CLE)
42% owned
I know, Brantley is synonymous with injured and he’s starting the year on the DL so why are we discussing this? Well, this injury stint is just due to recovery from offseason ankle surgery and the concerns surrounding dealing with him potentially never coming back have obliterated any positivity around him. It’s also caused folks to forget that he hit nine homers with 11 steals and a .299 average in just 90 games (375 PAs) last year. Projecting him for 500-550 PAs could lead to a 15/15/.300 year in an offense/park that we’ve already praised. The risk is more than baked into his price.
Lewis Brinson (OF, MIA)
33% owned
There’s little doubting Brinson is a talented player, but I understand why a 24-year-old that looked over his head during his cup of coffee last year is being shied away from. We can’t ignore that being Miami depresses value as well, but I hold that being on a team that doesn’t even have any pride to lose, helps Brinson. They should let him run (he swiped 11 bases in 340 Triple-A PAs last year) and he has fantasy-viable power (13 HRs in the same sample), which puts both 15-20 HRs and SBs each on the table.
His counting stats may sag around 130 R+RBI as a result of his supporting cast and most project him for an average around the .240s despite hitting a combined .343 over 388 Triple-A at-bats. His power and speed outpace his contact, but he’s improved since hitting .237 for the Rangers’ Double-A affiliate and a 20/20/.275 year is possible. Plus, any rookie doing well makes for a solid trade chip in most leagues.
Starting Pitcher
Marco Estrada (SP, TOR)
29% owned
To most folks, Estrada’s poor 2017 season just confirms the sabermetric counterpunch that had cast its shadow over his successful years. His 3.13 ERA of ‘15 had a 4.40 FIP and 4.93 xFIP behind it, only to produce a 3.48 ERA, 4.15 FIP and 4.64 xFIP the next season, so his 4.98 ERA was vindication. The issue here is that he was still really good in the first two months of 2017, only to fall apart between June and August before rebounding in September.
It turns out that Estrada was having sleep problems as the trade deadline approached (on top of other things) and stress mounted. He went 0-5 and averaged under five innings per start en route to an 8.87 ERA in his 10 outings between June 1 and July 28, aka the deadline date. His next start, on July 31, saw him yield just one run over seven sterling innings. He wasn’t perfect down the stretch, allowing six or more runs three times, but we’re not touting him as an ace, simply as a good pitcher. And a human. He’s a human being prone to stressful periods and their effects. Fantasy can be cold-blooded numbers, but hopefully, his 2018 is more relaxed. If so, you and he both win.
Jack Flaherty (SP, STL)
24% owned
Thanks to an Adam Wainwright injury, Flaherty will open the season as the Cardinals’ No. 5 starter and get a chance to show off his fastball, slider, curveball and just maybe the changeup. His brief stint in the Majors (at age 21) didn’t go so well (6.33 ERA, 1.55 WHIP), but he did strike out 20 in 21 ⅓ IP with a 13.1 percent swinging-strike rate. He would whiff roughly a batter per nine in the Minors and should be able to keep that up in the bigs as he refines his command against the highest competition. While I hope he pitches so well that St. Louis can’t help but keep him in the rotation, it would be wise to view this as a short-term, but fun, add.
Relief Pitcher
Nate Jones (RP, CHW)
37% owned
Back then, pros didn’t want him. Now he’s hot, pros all on him.
That was a stretch and I don’t care, Nate Jones is for real (when he’s healthy) and should prove much more reliable and effective than Joakim Soria in the ninth inning. Nasty Nate has posted a 2.49 ERA with a 10.84 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 over his last three seasons, with the issue being that he’s managed to throw just 101 ⅓ innings since the 2014 season. Thanks a lot, multiple right elbow surgeries! I can’t sit here and act like Soria didn’t have a fantastic ‘17 campaign, his 3.70 ERA had a beautiful 2.23 FIP behind it! But he posted a 4.05 ERA/4.36 FIP the year before and will soon be 34, so I trust him less on the bump. I also think he’s more likely to get dealt midseason by a rebuilding White Sox team.
Keone Kela (RP, TEX)
21% owned
Kela may have dug himself into Texas’ doghouse, but he doesn’t deserve to be in fantasy ones too. Ignoring his brief disciplinary stint at Triple-A, the fireballer posted a 2.79 ERA (3.26 FIP) and 0.91 WHIP with 51 K’s in 38 ⅔ innings last season. He did a great job at limiting hard contact (26.8 percent hard-hit rate, 24.4 percent soft-contact rate), which went wonderfully with his 57.3 percent fly-ball rate. Weak flies yielded a .179 BABIP, though I would expect some give on that. The point is, he can generate his own outs with K’s and also induces weak contact, making him a much better fit for the ninth with Alex Claudio and his grounder-inducing ways more of a “oh crap, two guys are on base in the eighth inning, we need a double play” type.
