February 9, 2018

Kevin analyzes Week 17 NBA DFS risers and fallers for DraftKings. Daily fantasy basketball sleepers, fades & values based on DFS price fluctuations.

Welcome back, my daily fantasy sports friends, to another edition of Risers and Fallers. There's a lot to cover every week, but I'm expecting next week's to be the wildest of the season - seeing as how yesterday's NBA Trade Deadline was one of the wackiest that I can recall. This is a really fun league, isn't it?

Those trades and waiver moves are sure to make an impact on risers and fallers as minutes are shaken up and uniforms have changed, but it's too early to tell how that will all shake out. Seeing as each team has roughly 30 games left and the playoffs are approaching, we could see rotations start to tighten. That's good news for our starters, not as much for

Before I get further off on a tangent, here are two players whose current salaries outweigh their production, and two others who have become too cheap to ignore. Let's take a look.

DFS Value Risers - Week 17

Domantas Sabonis (PF/C, IND)

Sabonis' ownership rates have plummeted since he was "reduced" to a reserve role for the Pacers. His production, though, hasn't been reduced. Seeing as his price has dropped almost one thousand dollars since last week - from a price point he was hitting value at, even in the off-the-bench role - and his production has been strong, I really like him in tournament formats right now. Since the benching, he is still getting his 28+ minutes a game, and he may even command a higher Usage rate with less scorers around him on the second unit. For the season, he's averaged over a point per minute in DraftKings scoring, and the reduced interest in Sabonis among the DFS community has me itching to play him in tournaments. Speaking of tournaments, Sabonis is an excellent one to pair with my next value riser, seeing as their fantasy points are fairly highly correlated in a positive way.

Victor Oladipo (PG/SG, IND)

Yes, Victor has struggled a little from a fantasy perspective. But a lot of what has you seeing red in his DFS box scores is the fact that he was grossly overpriced thanks to a few 50+ point games. He's more than capable of doing that often, but doing so consistently is another question. Oladipo's price on January 31st was $1,300 more than it is today - and it's not as if he's injured, and the role hasn't changed. As of right now, there aren't any bargain better than he among back court options. For the season, Victor has produced 1.22 DraftKings points per minute and his Usage rate remains very attractive at a little over 28%. Oladipo has a fairly tough overall matchup tonight against Boston, where he's a fine tournament play. After that, I'd suggest jumping on board in both formats while this price is too low.

DFS Value Fallers - Week 17

Zach LaVine (SG, CHI)

It pains me to throw Mr. LaVine in this section. Not only is he one of the most explosive, exciting young guards in the game, but he's also finally in a spot where he can flourish in an up-tempo offense. The trouble - and it's an isolated one for the most part - is just the price right now. Related to that, he's very Usage rate and scoring the basketball dependent on getting over cash value each night. He is capable of grabbing a few boards and snatching a few steals, but for the most part, his ceiling is tied to his shot making ability. At this price point and with that dependency on scoring the basketball, that moves him out of Cash game contention for me. He is still a fine tournament option, even though I'd prefer to see his price drop before roster-ing him, but he isn't a complete fade. One thing to be mindful of, however, is that Kris Dunn is going to return from injury soon, and while they don't play the same position, it is another rotation guard in the mix that is likely to soak up some minutes and Usage.

Nikola Mirotic (PF, NOP)

A new city, new digs and a somewhat new-ish role for Mirotic in New Orleans. I thought the Pelicans front office did a nice job bringing in Mirotic as he'll absolutely help this team space the floor and he can be an excellent scorer. He's been a popular DFS play while wearing the Pels' jersey, and for good reason, too. He has a very high ceiling thanks to the Usage rate hovering between 25-27% in Chicago and with the second unit in New Orleans. Here comes the problem - he's now starting. Doesn't sound like much of a problem on the surface, especially since that will possibly garner him a few more minutes on the floor, but the Usage rate percentage is going to take a huge hit - and therefore so does his value. He is accustomed to be a second-unit assassin, but he'll now have to share the court and the ball with the likes of Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis. At this elevated price point and with the Usage rate hit, he's an easy fade for me in cash games right now. He has a little bit of GPP intrigue left, but I'd suggest waiting to see what kind of role he has as a starter and waiting until the price drops a bit.

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