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Buy or Sell - Underowned and Overowned Players for Week 4

Pierre Camus takes a look at players who may be overvalued or undervalued in relation to their ownership percentage. These players could be buy or sell candidates for the 2017 fantasy baseball season.

At this juncture, two things are becoming very clear: Eric Thames was a bargain in fantasy drafts and Byron Buxton is an albatross on your team. If you bought low on Thames or managed to snag him off the waiver wire, congrats. If you've had the misfortune of watching Buxton rack up Ks in your starting lineup, condolences. While April doesn't make or break a player's season, it's far enough along that we can assess players based on their current rankings.

Scouting players who may be undervalued and re-assessing players who may be overvalued is a weekly exercise that you should pursue. Fortunately, I have you covered. Here are a few players who are good buy or sell candidates based on their current performance compared to ownership levels. This could mean scooping them off waivers if possible or actively seeking a trade to acquire or discard certain players in order to maximize value.

Early in the season, my values will be based more on ADP than performance due to small sample size. I will include one player at each key position group (Infield, Outfield, Starter, Reliever). Ownership levels are taken from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Underrated Players - Week 4

Taylor Motter (SS/OF, SEA) 16% owned

For a team looking to rebuild with youth, you'd think the Rays wouldn't be so keen to give away power-hitting infield prospects before the season even started. Nick Franklin and Taylor Motter were both ditched by the team and may find themselves with successful careers in new homes. Motter has already gotten started by hitting four home runs with eight RBI in just 43 at-bats. He's slugging an impressive .718, which currently leads the AL. Not bad for a temporary replacement. Motter will slide out of the shortstop spot as soon as Jean Segura returns, but he could find a home at first base or become a part-time player. He may no longer be worth starting in mixed leagues, but he's a definite hold in AL-only leagues and could be worth a bench stash.

 

Steven Souza Jr. (OF, TB) 49% owned

We know Souza won't hit anywhere close to his current .349 average by season's end, so let's get that out of the way. His .452 BABIP means regression is on its way sooner rather than later. That said, Souza's power will not go away and he could be a 25 HR waiver wire add. He is known to strikeout a ton, but Souza has been disciplined so far with an 0.56 BB/K rate that is far better than last year's 0.19 BB/K. Tampa's offense is exceeding expectations all around, but that doesn't mean there isn't long-term value here. Grab Souza for his power and run producing value as long as you know what you're getting yourself into - a likely .250 hitter with a 25/80 ceiling.

 

Michael Wacha (SP, STL) 68% owned

The fact Wacha is still available in over one-fourth of fantasy leagues shows that the recency bias is real. Wacha's 5.09 ERA and 1.48 WHIP last year made him at best a deep sleeper in preseason drafts. Those lottery tickets are starting to pay off, as Wacha has a 2.41 ERA and 1.13 WHIP after three starts. If not for three long balls, Wacha would be near flawless so far. It might be concerning that his fly ball rate is up to 46%, but that should settle down closer to his career mark, along with the inflated 1.45 HR/9. The best sign is that his K/BB is up to 3.45, although his command never really abandoned him. Wacha got away from his fastball last year and relied more on his changeup, which proved unsuccessful. That and he had some bad luck last year (.334 BABIP). Wacha won't blow you away in any category, but he's a solid SP4/SP5 in mixed leagues that is worth adding or buying cheap.

 

Brad Brach (RP, BAL) 61% owned

By now, Brach should be universally owned. If you haven't heard, All-Star closer and Cy Young candidate from 2016, Zach Britton, is on the DL for the foreseeable future. Brach is taking over closing duties and has been lights out so far. He has saves in three straight games to go along with the five holds he'd already accumulated. Brach has yet to allow a run and has registered 12 K in eight innings. He is the rare middle reliever who has earned an All-Star berth himself, so it should come as no surprise that he is comfortable in the ninth inning. Even if you aren't in need of saves, scoop him up and deal from your new position of strength.

 

Overrated Players - Week 4

Travis Shaw (1B/3B, MIL) 59% owned

He's on fire - pick him up! He's cold... bench him for now. He's on fire again - quick, put him back in! Such is the life of a Travis Shaw owner. After collecting a homer, four doubles and five RBI in the first three games of the season, Shaw was looking like he might be the real sleeper on the Brewers roster. Five hits in 10 games later, he's down to .200 on the season and we've forgotten about him. Another power surge has made him a top waiver pickup once more, but how long will it last? Shaw started like a house of fire last season in Boston too, hitting .314 in April, .275 in May and driving in 35 runs over the first two months. If you were a Shaw owner who didn't sell high at that point, you were sorely disappointed to see him hit .194 with only 23 RBI in 193 at-bats over the second half of the season. Shaw is not only as streaky as they come, he doesn't have the pedigree to support a breakout season. His career high was 16 HR in a minor league career that spanned five seasons. His walk rate has been declining each year, down to a low mark of 7.4% this season and he has an unsustainable 35.7% HR/FB%. Stream him through the spring, but don't hesitate to bench or sell him as soon as the next cold drought comes on.

 

Odubel Herrera (OF, PHI) 87% owned

Herrera projected to be a top-25 outfielder with a legitimate shot to go 20/20 this season. He hasn't gotten off the kind of start you'd like, hitting .264 with one homer and four RBI, although the two steals are somewhat helpful. Herrera is reaching base at a high clip thanks to an increased walk rate of 14.5%, but he's hitting ground balls at a higher rate (53.8%) and making less hard contact so far (15.4%). In a small sample size, these shouldn't be major concerns yet, but playing time could be. The Phillies have a glut of outfielders that they seem bent on rotating in and out of the lineup. Herrera himself was benched more frequently in early August last season when he was struggling, so he could lose a few at-bats here and there if he does hit a slump. Add in the fact that he isn't seeing much support behind him with Maikel Franco hitting .172 and Herrera isn't living up to his ADP. You can stay the course if you have faith in the Phillies, but I have my doubts about a team that seems uncertain about its direction.

 

Ervin Santana (SP, MIN) 90% owned

Your top-ranked fantasy pitcher after three weeks is none other than Ervin Santana. His 4.10 SIERA is drastically different than his 0.64 ERA, however, so there is bound to be some hard regression soon. Santana has only posted an ERA over 4.00 over a full season once in the last seven years, so we shouldn't expect a complete implosion. The problem is that he won't help you in enough other categories to warrant holding onto. He's striking out a league average 20% of batters, as he's done his whole career. Don't count on the wins to continue either - he only tallied seven each of the last two seasons with Minnesota. Santana has been around long enough that most seasoned fantasy players won't be fooled by a trade offer of Santana for deGrom, but it won't hurt to dangle him to a desperate MadBum owner to see what you can get in return.

 

Andrew Triggs (SP/RP, OAK) 49% owned

It's a bit surprising that more people haven't bought into the pitcher with the longest scoreless streak to start the year so far, but perhaps there's a good reason. Triggs has gone 17 2/3 scoreless already, but is only half-owned. The reason is that he doesn't have a track record of Major League success, he isn't doing much in the strikeout category (4.58 K/9), and his 4.18 SIERA suggests that he's not as good as he looks on paper. Triggs is a converted reliever who was thrown into Oakland's rotation because of Sonny Gray's absence. It looks like he will stick now, but there's little chance he keeps this up, at least at this rate. He's got a plus home park factor in his favor and is in a division with teams that are struggling offensively, so you can pick your spots with him, but don't expect him to become a staple in your rotation.




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Kevin Huerter

Sidelined One Week
Daniel Gafford

Aggravates Right-Ankle Injury on Wednesday
Collin Sexton

Injured in Loss to Knicks
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Suffers Calf Injury on Wednesday Night
Kyren Williams

Expected to Play in Week 14
Davante Adams

Expected to Play Despite Missing Wednesday's Practice
Kyle Tucker

Visits With Blue Jays
Woody Marks

Texans Say Woody Marks Will be Fine
Rasmus Ristolainen

to Miss at Least One More Week
Drew Doughty

Logs Full Practice Wednesday
Emilio Pagán

Reds Bring Back Closer Emilio Pagan on Two-Year Deal
Jeff Skinner

Remains Sidelined Wednesday
Petr Mrazek

Out 2-3 Weeks
Pelle Larsson

Set to Suit Up Versus Dallas
Tyler Seguin

Likely Done for the Season
P.J. Washington

Ruled Out Against Miami
Neal Pionk

Returns to Jets Lineup
Jalen Smith

to Miss Third Straight Game
Duncan Robinson

Sidelined Again Wednesday
J.J. McCarthy

Practices in Full, on Track to Return in Week 14
Daniel Gafford

Set To Play Against Heat
Tre Jones

Ruled Out for Wednesday's Game
LaMelo Ball

Good to Go on Wednesday
Cedric Mullins

Rays Agree on One-Year Deal
Steven Adams

Cleared To Play Against Kings
Deni Avdija

is Available to Play on Wednesday
Kevin Porter Jr.

Available on Wednesday
Bobby Portis

Available to Play on Wednesday
Lonzo Ball

Upgraded To Available Against Portland
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Cleared for Wednesday's Game
Jamal Murray

Cleared To Play Against Indiana
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Available on Wednesday Night
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Ruled Out on Thursday Due to a Personal Matter
Norman Powell

Sidelined Versus Mavericks
Mark Andrews

Agrees to Three-Year Extension With Ravens
Freddy Peralta

Brewers Considering Trading Freddy Peralta
Kyle Schwarber

Reds Serious About Adding Kyle Schwarber in Free Agency?
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Officially Questionable for Thursday Night
Omarion Hampton

"on Track and Looking Good" for Week 14
CFB

Brent Key Signing Five-Year Deal to Remain at Georgia Tech
Joey Bosa

Week-to-Week With Hamstring Injury
Bryce Young

Panthers Expected to Pick Up Bryce Young's Fifth-Year Option
Deshaun Watson

Browns Opening Practice Window for Deshaun Watson
CFB

Brian Hartline Expected to Land USF Head-Coaching Job
CFB

Collin Klein Expected to be Top Target for Kansas State if Head-Coach Job Opens
CFB

Chris Klieman Considering Stepping Down at Kansas State
Aaron Rodgers

Appears to be Healthier Heading into Week 14
Jalen McMillan

Expected to Have his 21-day Practice Window Opened
Mike Evans

' Practice Window Opened, Returning to Practice on Wednesday
Alexander Wennberg

a Game-Time Call Wednesday
Michael Callahan

Sustains Lower-Body Injury Tuesday
Michael Rasmussen

Makes Early Exit Tuesday
Scott Wedgewood

Exits Early With Back Problem
Evander Kane

Expected to Be Fine After Skate Cut
Tyler Seguin

Injured Versus Rangers
Sean Monahan

Expected to Play Thursday
Nathan Walker

Out for Eight Weeks
Lian Bichsel

to Sit Out 6-8 Weeks
Viktor Arvidsson

Activated From Injured Reserve
Warren Foegele

Remains Out Tuesday
Valeri Nichushkin

Available After Eight-Game Absence
Gabriel Landeskog

Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog Cleared for Tuesday
Tyson Foerster

to Miss 2-3 Months
CFB

D.J. Durkin Staying at Auburn Under Alex Golesh
CFB

Charlie Weis Jr. Permitted to Coach Ole Miss Offense in College Football Playoff
Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Says he's Fine After Suffering Hip Contusion
Omarion Hampton

Likely to Return in Week 14
CFB

Five-Star Quarterback Jared Curtis Flips Commitment From Georgia to Vanderbilt
CFB

Florida Hiring Brad White as Defensive Coordinator
Kyle Schwarber

Giants Have Checked in on Kyle Schwarber
Willson Contreras

Willing to Waive his Full No-Trade Clause?
Brandon Aiyuk

49ers "Hopeful" Brandon Aiyuk Will Play in 2025
Brayden Point

Without Timetable for Return
Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Carted Off With Hip Injury on Monday Night
Edwin Díaz

Mets Still Interested in Re-Signing Edwin Diaz
Devin Williams

Agrees to Three-Year Deal With Mets
Cole Ragans

Red Sox Targeting Cole Ragans in a Trade?
CFB

Kentucky Hires Oregon Offensive Coordinator Will Stein As Head Coach
Davante Adams

Not Dealing With a Serious Injury
Kyler Murray

Surgery Not on the Table for Kyler Murray
Marvin Harrison Jr.

in Danger of Missing Week 14?
CFB

Kalani Sitake the Top Target for Penn State Coaching Job
Justin Herbert

Having Hand Surgery on Monday
CFB

Josh Heupel Says He's Not a Candidate for Penn State Head Coach Job
CFB

Will Stein, Brian Hartline the Top Candidates for Kentucky Job?
CFB

Nebraska Fires Defensive Coordinator John Butler After One Season
CFB

UCLA Expected to Hire Bob Chesney as Next Head Coach
CFB

Lane Kiffin to Make $13 Million Salary, Ties Kirby Smart
CFB

Buster Faulkner, Joey Halzle Candidates for Florida Offensive Coordinator Job?
CFB

Kentucky Officially Fires Mark Stoops
CFB

Lane Kiffin to be Introduced as LSU's Next Head Coach on Monday
CFB

Florida Poised to Land Jon Sumrall as Next Head Coach
CFB

Alex Golesh Taking Over Auburn Head-Coaching Job
CFB

Arkansas Expected to Hire Ryan Silverfield as Next Head Coach
Zack Wheeler

Likely to Return in May
Ryan Helsley

Agrees to Two-Year Deal With Orioles

RANKINGS

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RB
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TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
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OF
SP
RP