X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Nate Karns and Jose Quintana

What Appears In This Article? hide

Pitching always seems to define my fantasy seasons, good and bad. After covering Jarrod Dyson in the last Champ/Chump, it makes sense to acknowledge that the piece Kansas City acquired is also interesting from a fantasy perspective.

Jose Quintana may be the best pitcher on the trade market, so he has been involved in his fair share of rumors as well.

Will either help fantasy rosters in 2017?

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

The Fantasy Jury Has Spoken

Nathan Karns (SP, KC)

By surface stats, Karns was an unmitigated disaster in 2017. His 6-2 record hid an atrocious 5.15 ERA. Advanced metrics offer reason for optimism, as his FIP (4.05) was far more palatable. The reason for the discrepancy seems to be an inflated .327 BABIP (.297 career BABIP) and a low strand rate of 69% (74.7% career).

Part of Karns's BABIP problem was a 23.2% LD% against, a stat that should correct itself in 2017. He was also let down by a disastrous Seattle defense that combined for -22 DRS last year. His new team had 29 team DRS last season, so his defensive support should be better. The improvement won't be as great as the differential suggests, however, as Dyson is taking 19 of Kansas City's 29 DRS with him to Seattle. Even league average defenders could help Karns a lot though.

Karns does not need too much defensive support for his 24.2% K% to matter in fantasy. His repertoire includes a knuckle curve, a change, and a heater to set the others up. The K-Curve offers a 13.3% SwStr%, 39.2% chase rate, and 42.1% Zone%, indicating that the offering is effective in and out of the zone. The change isn't a true wipeout pitch with a 35.7% chase rate, but its 18.8% SwStr% and 42.4% Zone% can help pile up Ks. His 10.8% BB% was a little high, but the fact that his K pitches work in the zone should let him cut the BBs down if he can harness them.

Kansas City is also a pretty great place to pitch. Kauffman Stadium suppresses power, and the Royals share a division with quite possibly the two worst teams in the AL: Minnesota and Chicago. Detroit can be beaten by avoiding their star power as well, so three of four divisional opponents present favorable matchups. At worst, Karns is a streamable arm with a schedule that should produce a lot of streaming opportunities. Should he reach his potential, you'll even want to use him against powerhouse Cleveland.

Verdict: Champ

 

Jose Quintana (SP, CWS)

For many years, Quintana was an undervalued fantasy asset. Just when he began to garner the respect he deserved, his skills began to erode. His 13-12 record with a 3.20 ERA and 21.6% K% were usable in fantasy, but nothing more than that. No one won a competitive league by drafting Quintana last year.

It looks like 2017 could be worse. A 79% LOB% saved Quintana from his 4.03 xFIP last year, but it probably won't repeat. If Quintana posts a league average or worse ERA, there will not be much reason to roster him in fantasy. Last year's league average strikeout rate is probably Quintana's best possible performance in the category. Quite frankly, his stuff is not great.

His arsenal is highlighted by a curve with an 11.4% SwStr%, 32.8% chase rate, and 37.7% Zone%. That's the good pitch, and it fails to generate whiffs outside the zone or earn strikes in the zone with any regularity. His change is completely useless, as it is seldom a strike (25.8% Zone%), rarely chased (26.5%), and almost never misses bats (6.1% SwStr%). The 154 wRC+ it allowed is way too high as well. Neither of Quintana's fastballs offers strikeout upside, so a K% closer to his career 19.9% rate should be expected moving forward. Fantasy owners need a lot more from a player with Quintana's name recognition.

Chicago is also unlikely to provide a substantial amount of Ws, and he will spend two-thirds of the season there even if he gets traded at the deadline. The Cell, now called Guaranteed Rate Field, is also a terrible place to pitch. Quintana has avoided getting burned too badly by inducing a ton of ground balls, but his FB% jumped from 29.7% in 2015 to 38.7% last year. The resulting HR/FB of 9.5% was not too bad, but rostering fly ball guys in that stadium is playing with fire. Don't pay a SP2 price for a SP4-caliber arm.

Verdict: Chump


Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Salvador Perez9 mins ago

Back In Action Tuesday
Daulton Varsho14 mins ago

Out Against Lefty Tuesday
Bojan Bogdanovic19 mins ago

Needs Surgery, Out For Remainder Of Postseason
Jeremy Swayman20 mins ago

Back In Action On Tuesday
José Abreu22 mins ago

Jose Abreu Being Sent To The Minors
Matt Martin28 mins ago

Out Again Tuesday
Vladislav Namestnikov34 mins ago

Brenden Dillon, Vladislav Namestnikov Out Tuesday
Tim Anderson48 mins ago

Out Of Tuesday's Lineup
Sami Valimaki2 hours ago

Two-Steps Into Texas This Week
Chan Kim2 hours ago

Could Surprise At The CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Tyler Black2 hours ago

Brewers Set To Call Up Tyler Black
Matt Grzelcyk2 hours ago

Likely Back In Tuesday
Adam Schenk2 hours ago

Has Concerns Heading To Texas
Rico Hoey2 hours ago

Showing Signs Of Improvement
Jhoan Duran2 hours ago

Activated From Injured List
T.J. Oshie2 hours ago

Facing Uncertain Future
Timothy Liljegren2 hours ago

Draws Back In For Game 5
Nolan Jones2 hours ago

Placed On Injured List
Joseph Woll3 hours ago

To Start Game 5 Tuesday
Auston Matthews3 hours ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Bubba Watson3 hours ago

LIV Golf Betting Picks: 2024 Singapore Preview and Best Bets
J.K. Dobbins3 hours ago

Says He's 100 Percent Healthy
Will Zalatoris3 hours ago

Withdraws From CJ Cup Byron Nelson
PGA3 hours ago

Preferred Lines Golf Betting Podcast - 2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson PGA Bets, Tips, and Preview
Cade Horton4 hours ago

Cubs Promote Cade Horton To Triple-A
Jett Williams4 hours ago

On Injured List At Double-A
Khris Middleton4 hours ago

The Best of Both Worlds: NBA DFS Cash and GPP Targets for 4/30 (Premium Content)
Kodai Senga5 hours ago

Looks "Nasty" While Facing Live Hitters
Zac Gallen5 hours ago

To Start Wednesday Against Dodgers
Yu Darvish5 hours ago

Activated And Starting On Tuesday
PGA6 hours ago

PGA Stat Buffet - Betting, DFS Picks - Golf Bets Research - The 2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson (Premium)
PGA7 hours ago

RotoBaller PGA Show: Fantasy Golf, Betting, and DFS Breakdown - 2024 CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Zay Jones7 hours ago

Jaguars Release Zay Jones On Tuesday
Jalen Williams7 hours ago

Fills Stat Sheet As Thunder Complete Sweep
Bam Adebayo7 hours ago

Close To 20-20 Game In Monday's Loss
Derrick White7 hours ago

Scores Career-High 38 Points In Monday's Win
Jayson Tatum7 hours ago

Notches Third Double-Double Of Postseason
Anthony Davis7 hours ago

Battles Through Shoulder Injury In Game 5
LeBron James7 hours ago

Mum On Future After Playoff Exit
Nikola Jokic7 hours ago

Falls One Assist Short Of Another Big Triple-Double
Jamal Murray8 hours ago

Hits Another Game-Winner To End Series
Giannis Antetokounmpo8 hours ago

NBA DFS: Top Daily Fantasy Expert Picks for DraftKings, FanDuel (4/30/24)
Sam Bennett10 hours ago

DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Hockey Picks (4/30/24): Today's Top NHL DFS Lineups
Max Fried16 hours ago

Pitches Six No-Hit innings Monday
Justin Turner17 hours ago

Homers Twice In Monday Win
NFL17 hours ago

Seahawks, 49ers Interested In Jamal Adams
Tee Higgins17 hours ago

Bengals Not Close To Tee Higgins' Contract Demands?
Gunnar Henderson17 hours ago

Cranks 10th Homer Monday
Chase Brown17 hours ago

Enters 2024 As Backup
Josh Lowe18 hours ago

Gets Good News On MRI Exam
Luis Severino19 hours ago

Flirts With No-Hitter In Eight Brilliant Innings
Cody Bellinger19 hours ago

Ramping Up Activity
NHL19 hours ago

NHL DFS Picks and Heat Map (Premium Content) - April 30, 2024
Cristian Javier19 hours ago

Resumes Throwing Off The Mound
Zac Gallen19 hours ago

Throws Bullpen With No Issues
Tommy Edman20 hours ago

Swinging From Both Sides Of A Tee
Jamal Murray20 hours ago

Available For Game 5
Kristaps Porzingis20 hours ago

To Undergo Imaging Tuesday
Kristaps Porzingis20 hours ago

Doubtful To Return To Game 4
Michael Gallup20 hours ago

Intends To Sign With Vegas
Patrick Reed21 hours ago

DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The CJ Cup Byron Nelson With Jordan Spieth, Stephan Jaeger, Adam Schenk, Peter Kuest and More Golf Advice (2024)
Patrick Beverley21 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Tuesday
Khris Middleton21 hours ago

Probable For Game 5
Damian Lillard21 hours ago

Unlikely To Play Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo22 hours ago

Doubtful For Game 5
Tyrese Haliburton22 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Game 5
Bojan Bogdanovic22 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Mitchell Robinson22 hours ago

Questionable For Game 5
Kyle Pitts23 hours ago

Falcons Pick Up Kyle Pitts' Fifth-Year Option
PGA23 hours ago

TeeOffSports' PGA DFS Rankings Wizard Model - The CJ Cup Byron Nelson (Premium Content)
Matt Martin24 hours ago

To Miss Game 5
Derek Forbort1 day ago

Could Play In Game 5
Chase Elliott1 day ago

Notches Another Top-Five Finish At Dover
Alex Bowman1 day ago

Frustrated After Finishing Eighth At Dover
Jaylen Waddle1 day ago

Fifth-Year Option Picked Up By Dolphins
Matheus Nicolau1 day ago

Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 91
Jordan Spieth1 day ago

2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson Course Preview and Breakdown for TPC Craig Ranch
Travis Kelce1 day ago

Chiefs Agree To Two-Year Extension With Travis Kelce
William Byron1 day ago

Botched Pit Stop and Crash Eliminate William Byron From Contention at Dover
NASCAR1 day ago

Martin Truex, Jr. Faded to Third at Dover, but Remains Fastest Driver of 2024
Kyle Larson1 day ago

Late-Race Charge at Dover Comes up Short
Denny Hamlin1 day ago

Takes Checkered Flag at Dover for Third Win of Season
Jarvis Landry1 day ago

Expected To Try Out For Jaguars
Alex Perez1 day ago

Scores Second-Round Knockout Win At UFC Vegas 91
MMA1 day ago

Ariane Lipski Loses A Decision At UFC Vegas 91
Karine Silva1 day ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Jonathan Pearce1 day ago

Suffers Decision Loss
David Onama1 day ago

Wins Second Fight In A Row
Brad Keselowski1 day ago

A Tire Issue On Lap 118 Impacts Brad Keselowski's Day At Dover
Ryan Blaney1 day ago

Finishes Seventh At Dover
Jack Eichel1 day ago

DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Hockey Picks (4/29/24): NHL DFS Lineups
Mika Zibanejad1 day ago

Collects Two Points Sunday
Artemi Panarin1 day ago

Notches Game-Winning Goal Sunday
Auston Matthews1 day ago

Uncertain For Game 5
Ezekiel Elliott1 day ago

Back With Cowboys
Noah Gragson1 day ago

Nabs A Quality Top 10 Finish At Dover
Brock Boeser1 day ago

Nets Hat Trick Sunday
Kyle Busch1 day ago

Scores His Second Top-10 Finish Of The Year At Dover
Stuart Skinner1 day ago

Blanks Kings On Sunday
Jordan Spieth1 day ago

Scouting the Routing: 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Daniel Hemric1 day ago

Ends Up Ninth At Dover
Ty Gibbs1 day ago

Sneaks Into Tenth At Dover On Sunday
Tank Dell2 days ago

In "Good Spirits" After Being Shot
Connor Hellebuyck2 days ago

Struggles Again Sunday
Nathan MacKinnon2 days ago

Cale Makar Each Notch Two Points In Game 4
Derek Ryan2 days ago

To Make Postseason Debut Sunday
Jordan Spieth2 days ago

2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson PGA Power Rankings: Top 10 Teams To Watch
Kirk Cousins2 days ago

Still Atlanta's Unquestioned Starting QB
Justin Jefferson2 days ago

Vikings Optimistic Regarding Justin Jefferson's Contract Talks
J.J. McCarthy2 days ago

Vikings Won't Rush J.J. McCarthy Into Starting Role
Travis Etienne Jr.2 days ago

Jaguars Pick Up Fifth-Year Options On Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne Jr.
Martin Truex Jr2 days ago

. Is One Of The Top DFS Plays At Dover
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Will Start Fourth At Dover
Michael McDowell2 days ago

Fade Michael McDowell For the Wurth 400 At Dover
Joey Logano2 days ago

Will Not Cause Much DFS Excitement At Dover
Noah Gragson2 days ago

Is Noah Gragson A Sneaky Tournament Play At Dover?
Uros Medic2 days ago

Returns To Win Column At UFC Vegas 91
Tim Means2 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 91
Austen Lane2 days ago

Winless In The UFC
Jhonata Diniz2 days ago

Wins UFC Debut
Ryan Spann2 days ago

Suffers Third Straight Loss
Bogdan Guskov2 days ago

Gets Upset Win At UFC Vegas 91
Kyle Larson2 days ago

the Favorite to Win at Dover Despite Qualifying 21st
Chase Elliott2 days ago

a Core DFS Play at Dover
Alex Bowman2 days ago

Always Strong at Dover
Chris Buescher2 days ago

Has DFS Place Differential Upside at Dover
Troy Franklin3 days ago

Broncos Trade Up To Select Oregon Receiver Troy Franklin
Deebo Samuel4 days ago

49ers Set To Keep Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk?
Luke McCaffrey4 days ago

Selected By Commanders 100th Overall
Jalen McMillan4 days ago

Heads To Tampa Bay
Tip Reiman4 days ago

Cardinals Take Tip Reiman At No. 82
Alex Perez4 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Matheus Nicolau4 days ago

Returns To Action At UFC Vegas 91
Ariane da Silva4 days ago

Ariane Lipski Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
Karine Silva4 days ago

Looks For Ninth Victory In A Row
David Onama4 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 91
Jonathan Pearce4 days ago

Looks To Get Back In Win Column
Uros Medic5 days ago

A Massive Favorite At UFC Vegas 91
Tim Means5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 91
Austen Lane5 days ago

Searching For First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF