Position scarcity gives certain players an uptick in ADP over what their established production warrants based on the feeling that it is important to get something out of the lineup slot. Buster Posey is a much better offensive performer than other catchers, for example, so slotting him in at C is more valuable than a slightly better performer at 1B.

Other than catcher, the middle infield spots are the ones most associated with position scarcity. This is fine if you're rostering someone like Jose Altuve, whose production will actually help your team, a little early. It is not a reason to take a bad player just so you have something. No matter how deep your league is, bad players will always be available to you. No need to reach for them in the first half of the draft, regardless of position.

Without further ado, let's look at some second sackers.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. Our rankings assistant tool combines all our staff's ranks in one place. You can easily filter and export all sorts of rankings and tiers - mixed leagues, points leagues, AL/NL only, top prospects, dynasty ranks, keeper values, and more.

 

Champ or Chump: Second Base

Matt Carpenter (3B/2B, STL, ADP: 55.2)

Prior to last season, Matt Carpenter established himself as an OBP asset with minimal power. Then, he hit .272/.365/.505 with 28 HR, completely changing his profile in the process. Fantasy owners seem to like the new Carpenter, as he leaves the draft board far earlier than he ever had before.

While Carpenter did hit a lot more fly balls last season (41.7% against 35.2% in 2014), it would be a fool's errand to bank on a repeat. Carpenter's HR/FB soared to a career best 15.8% in 2015. In itself, that is not too startling - plenty of players beat it every year. The problem arises when you consider that his previous career best was just 7%, indicating that Carpenter may not be capable of sustaining such a high figure.

Carpenter made a number of changes to his game to enjoy the power breakout, and many of them are troubling. He pulled ground balls at a higher rate (67.5%) than ever before (career 56.7%), essentially begging to be victimized by the infield shift. This hurt his BABIP on grounders, which fell to .175 last season. 2016 could well be worse, as teams will know to shift against him from Opening Day on.

Carpenter has always posted an elevated LD%, but last year's career best 28.5% LD% is an outlier even for a guy with a career 25.9% rate. While he maintained his barely plus average from 2014, more unproductive ground balls combined with fewer liners should be expected to torpedo his BABIP in 2016, and the average will follow suit.

He also struck out a lot more, going from a strong 15.7% K% in 2014 to a 22.7% rate that was actually slightly above the MLB average. His SwStr% more than doubled, from 3.3% in 2014 to 7.7% last year, while his overall Contact% dropped from 89.9% to 80.1%. Despite his past, there is real batting average risk here.

This is the profile of a guy that needs 30 HR to have any fantasy value at all, and he failed to hit that milestone even with everything going right last year. Even if he manages to maintain his power stroke, hitting leadoff is the worst possible slot for this profile. Since he figures to reach base less often with a weaker average, he won't score as many runs. Meanwhile, he'll be the king of the solo shot as no one will be on for his first PA and only the 8-hitter and pitcher can set him up thereafter.

Low batting average profiles with some power upside are hardly scarce on draft day, and Matt Carpenter is one of the most expensive. With only 10 games at the keystone last year, not even position scarcity can save him in many leagues. Pass.

Verdict: Chump

 

Jason Kipnis (2B, CLE, ADP: 87)

It seems like this guy has been a fantasy sleeper forever, but he still hasn't accomplished anything. His .303/.372/.451 line looked good last season, but it came with few steals (12) and even fewer dingers (9). His elevated BABIP of .356 suggests the average is due for a crash, and nothing of fantasy value is left if it does.

There are two paths to a high BABIP: LD% and footspeed. Kipnis covered the first part of that equation with a 26.8% LD% in 2015, and many figure he can sustain it based on his 24.1% career rate. His career is comprised of only four seasons, however, and only last year and 2013 (24.7%) have really high rates. The rest of his career hovers around 22%, just a smidge better than average. There is a 50/50 chance that the high, not the average, rates are the fluke. If so, the average is going to tumble.

Kipnis can run, so he figures to be able to use his wheels for a BABIP advantage. Except he hasn't - his career BABIP on ground balls is just .207, actually less than the 2015 MLB average of .236. His BABIP last year was based on fly balls (.221), which actually posted a higher rate than his grounders did (.212). That almost never happens, and it can't possibly be sustainable.

Kipnis was also an inefficient base thief in 2015, racking up eight CS to go with his 12 bags. His success rate was much higher both in his previous MLB experience and down on the farm, but a bad start could give him a permanent red light. Plus SBs are not a given.

That would be fine with more power, but that seems unlikely at best. Kipnis managed only a 28.1% FB% in 2015, falling far short of the level required for even moderate power. The few flies he hit weren't particularly well struck either, as he posted just a 6.9% HR/FB. When you combine the lack of elite power and speed with the prospect of low counting stats in Cleveland's punchless lineup, there is a lot of risk for little reward in taking Kipnis in 2016.

When I wrote the intro discussing position scarcity, I had Kipnis in mind as the bad player who is taken only because he plays a scarce position. I don't want him at his current price. I may not want him at any price.

Verdict: Chump

 

Daniel Murphy (2B/3B/1B, WAS, ADP: 158)

Murphy's excellent postseason kind of bummed me out, as I was excited by his prospects as a quality under the radar fantasy selection before he went nuts on the national stage. Apparently I had nothing to be worried about, as merely a repeat of his .281/.322/.449 line with 14 HR would be a nice profit for his current price, especially with 2B eligibility.

I think there's more here though. Despite the solid batting average, Murphy's BABIP was just .278 last year compared to his career .314 figure. Both his grounders (.200) and fly balls (.084) under performed their respective career marks (.237 and .146), while his LD% shrank to 21.2% from a career 23.1% rate. A little more luck, even average luck, and Murphy is a .300 hitter.

The average he put up last year was the result of sensational plate discipline, as he struck out only 7.1% of the time. It may seem fluky, but an elite 3.9% SwStr% helps to justify it. He walks at only an average clip, but batting average guys that never strike out are reliable batting average guys.

The power looks legitimate too, provided you don't need to pay for any postseason heroics. His 8.3% HR/FB and 36% FB% both seem perfectly sustainable, and the sheer number of balls in play ensures that a few baseballs leave the park even if one of them slips. .300 with 15 HR from a 2B or MI is nothing to sneeze at, and there's a shot at SBs too.

Murphy pilfered only two bags in four attempts last year, but swiped 46 in 56 attempts over the prior three seasons combined. Murphy was never blessed with elite wheels, stealing instead as the opportunity presented itself. Opportunities could be numerous this year, as opposing teams may no longer pay as much attention to him after 2015's decreased SB output.

He also shares a division with Travis d'Arnaud, A.J. Pierzynski and Carlos Ruiz, all of whom struggle to manage the running game. J.T Realmuto, the last divisional opponent, was no better than average last year. He may hold a grudge against the Mets specifically for having zero interest in retaining his services, and be especially aggressive against them as a result. I expect double digit steals, and 20 wouldn't shock me.

Washington's lineup is tough to project, but there's a chance Murphy slots into the coveted two slot at some point. He'll almost certainly be high enough to interact with Bryce Harper in some way, whether Harper drives him in or presents Murphy with abundant RBI chances. Either way, his counting stats should be good for a second baseman.

To conclude, Murphy should hit 15 HR with a .300 average and a fair number of steals while accumulating counting stats in a decent lineup. That's what Kipnis wants to do, but Murphy has a better shot to do it and a significantly lower price tag. He also qualifies at both second (68 games) and third (42) in nearly all leagues, with significant 1B time as well (17). In leagues that charge for or otherwise limit transactions, Murphy is particularly valuable.

Verdict: Champ

 

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