March 17, 2016

Seth Finkelstein's college basketball NCAA Tournament bracket predictions. March Madness sleepers and busts picks - teams to target and avoid in your brackets.

College basketball has been crazy thus far. Top ranked teams keep falling and there seems to be an upset nightly. This NCAA Tournament should be the wildest March Madness seen in years. I'm here to tell you some teams that I believe in, and some teams that I don't. Hopefully this will help you make your tournament bracket decisions when it's time.

Will a 16-seed finally beat a number one? This would be the year for that to happen. I even think there is a shot that all final four teams will feature teams six-seeded or lower. Here are a couple of teams that can bust some brackets open, and also some teams from major conferences that you should avoid.

Editor's Note: If you are interested in more college basketball columns, you can also check out our CBB DFS lineups picks and daily league predictions.

NCAA Tournament Targets & Sleepers

Stony Brook Seawolves - America East

Stony Brook will be hosting Vermont on Saturday at 11 a.m. for the America East Championship and a chance to go to their first NCAA Tournament ever. Last year, they were heartbroken by Albany on Peter Hooley's buzzer beating three, in a game the Seawolves should have won. Albany has been Stony Brook's kyrptonite in recent years, but luckily for them, they face the Catamounts Saturday. Vermont did beat Stony Brook in Long Island on senior day in what was a substantial upset, but I expect the Seawolves to be ready for this game.

Their best player, senior forward Jameel Warney, is an NBA talent. The guy is a beast. He's averaging 19 points and 10 rebounds a game. In the quarterfinals against UMBC, Warney put up a 27-23 in an 86-76 win. On Monday against Hartford in the semifinals, Warney had another double-double, 21-13, in an 80-64 win.

Warney is joined by the dynamic guard, senior Carson Puriefoy, averaging 15 points a game, and senior forward, Rayshaun McGrew, averaging 11 points and 6 rebounds. They also play great defense, allowing 63 points a game, 13th best in the NCAA.  Joe Lunardi has Stony Brook as a 13-seed, and assuming they win, this senior trio could cause some damage.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors - Big West

This team caught my attention when they took Oklahoma to the wire on December 23, losing by three. They can't make the NCAA Tournament next year due to sanctions, so this is the year to make it and they know it. Their best win was against Missouri Valley conference champion Northern Iowa.

They've only lost five games all year, and are led by forward Stefan Jankovic, averaging 16 points and 7 rebounds. Assuming they get through the Big West tournament, I think this team could win a game or two in the NCAA Tournament.

USC Trojans - Pac-12

Currently, Lunardi has the Trojans in the tournament as a 10-seed. Despite losing 6 of their last 8, USC will be a dangerous team to play. They are led by a coach, Andy Enfield, who knows a thing or two about getting hot at the right time, as he was the old coach of Florida Gulf Coast when they went to the Sweet 16 as a 15-seed. Their best win came against Arizona and playing in the loaded Pac-12 will surely help them face off against teams from lesser conferences.

Colorado Buffaloes - Pac-12

Currently a 9-seed by Lunardi. They have beaten Oregon, California, and, most recently, Arizona, in what was their biggest win of the season. Their 10 losses have come to all legitimate teams. Their best player, Josh Scott, averaging a team high 16 points and 9 rebounds, can carry this team to the Elite Eight.

California Golden Bears - Pac-12

In case you were wondering, yes, I love the Pac-12 this year. Bill Walton announcing makes the game a ton better to watch too. Anyways, read this article by Deadspin, and you'll be convinced that they can go to the final four. I'm not sure if you'd call them a sleeper, but I think very few people will have them going far.

Holy Cross Crusades - Patriot League

The Crusaders were 10-19 and entered the conference tournament as the 9-seed out of ten teams. Well, they won four road games in a row capping off an incredible run. They will be a 16-seed. Can they beat a 1-seed, who knows? Probably not, but if they do, then Bill Simmons says he is retiring from sports as it would be the greatest moment in his sports life. Go Holy Cross!

NCAA Tournament Busts & Avoids

Maryland Terrapins - Big-10
This team is fake and frauds. They beat Iowa and split with Wisconsin and Purdue. Maryland's loss to Minnesota was disastrous. How could you lose to a team that went 8-22? They rely way too much on Melo Trimble and their center, Diamond Stone, isn't tough enough under the basket. In a year where every team is so close, I see Maryland getting upset in the 1st round.

Xavier Musketeers - Big East

I am a huge Big East fan and love watching the conference. Xavier plays great when they face big time opponents. When they played Villanova two weeks ago, they came out and played their best game of the season. When they had to play lowly St. John's (that's a hard sentence to write being a Red Storm fan) they let them hang around in both games, settling for seven and eight point wins.

They also lost to Creighton, not projected to make the tournament, and almost lost to them in their last game of the season at home. Their four losses came to Villanova, Georgetown, Creighton, and Seton Hall. I think the Big East is overrated though, and when Xavier will have to play a team not as good as them, I am not sure they will show up.

Texas A&M - SEC

The SEC is a weak conference. Their best win came against Kentucky, because the referees wanted to control the game and had to call a technical because the Kentucky player threw the ball down after grabbing a rebound and getting fouled. Fluke win. Losing to Alabama and LSU were bad bad losses. Something doesn't seem right about this team, and making the second weekend seems far fetched for the Aggies.

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