The wait is finally over – spring training is in full swing. And what better way to celebrate the advent of draft season than to profile potential breakouts and busts?

If you've been following my ongoing series, I've been taking a look at both NL and AL players who may breakout, bounce back, bust or regress in 2016. Today I will take a look at three American League outfielders who may disappoint for fantasy baseball owners.

Be sure to also head over to our fantasy baseball rankings assistant. We recently launched this handy new rankings tool - you can easily filter, sort, and export all sorts of rankings for mixed leagues, AL/NL only, top prospects, dynasty formats, keeper values and more! It's all in one place, and all free.

2016 AL Outfielder Bust Candidates

Jacoby Ellsbury

Remember 2011, when Ellsbury was an absolute monster? He hit .321/.376/.522, with 32 homers, 39 steals, and 224 R+RBI. The power predictably turned out to be a mirage; he’s hit 36 homers combined in the four seasons since. You probably don’t need me to tell you that. But Ellsbury has also seen his stolen base totals decline from 52 to 39 to 21 over the last three seasons. He’s hit above .271 just once since that out of nowhere elite season. Last season, he posted the lowest hard-hit rate and lowest contact rate of his career.

Most importantly, he’s continued to have trouble staying healthy. Ellsbury has missed a third of his team’s games going back to 2010. There’s no reason to expect him to avoid injury in his age-32 season, and his best tool – his speed – has pretty clearly been sapped by injury and age. Yet he’s the 26^th outfielder off the board on average in drafts so far, and our staff rankings have him 24^th at the position. Seems like a recipe for disappointment.

Carlos Gomez

Like Ellsbury, Gomez was hobbled by injury last season and will be on the wrong side of 30 this season. He hasn’t had nearly as much trouble staying healthy, but he shows the same troubling downward trends in key areas. Gomez’s homers, HR/FB%, ISO, average fly ball distance, stolen bases and attempts, and hard-hit rate have all declined since 2013.

Given what appears to simultaneous declines in both power and speed, Gomez can no longer be expected to produce as his did during his peak, when he averaged 22 homers and 37 steals per season. He might benefit from a better team and park context, but it seems likely that the Astros will bat him in the lower half of the order, which would further depress his stolen base totals. At this point, 20/20 looks more like ceiling than floor for him. Adjust your valuations accordingly.

Corey Dickerson

Owners who had Dickerson in keeper or dynasty leagues were on cloud nine after his breakout 2014. Unfortunately, since then there’s been nothing but bad news. First, Dickerson spent most of 2015 battling plantar fasciitis and managed to play in only 65 games. To make matters worse, the Rockies kept not putting him on the disabled list, so many owners were stuck in limbo for weeks at a time and forced to tie up an active roster slot on a guy who wasn’t playing.

Then in January, he was traded to Tampa Bay. Home/road splits should be taken with a grain of salt in most cases, but when the home park in question is Coors Field, they carry more weight. The splits for Dickerson, like with many hitters who have called Coors home, aren’t pretty:

To be fair, Coors also tends to have a negative impact on a hitter’s road numbers. We’ve seen this borne out by the continued success of players like Matt Holliday and Dexter Fowler in recent years after moving on to other teams. Tropicana Field is a rather dramatic departure, but all of the other parks in Dickerson’s new division are hitter-friendly. Perhaps more importantly, Dickerson will be able to DH regularly, which may help him avoid continued injury problems.

That said, Dickerson’s production still figures to take some sort of hit from leaving the thin air of Denver. Add to that his risk of injury and difficulties hitting southpaws, and it’s hard to recommend him with confidence.

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