FanDuel DFS – MLB Lineup Picks, Sleepers & Advice for 7/31/15

July 31, 2015

Tom Bellucco analyzes some MLB DFS lineup picks & sleepers for 7/31/15 on FanDuel fantasy baseball daily leagues. His DFS advice and value picks help you win on FanDuel.

Ugh. Thursday was no fun for DFS. Pitchers got shelled, hitters with supposedly good splits did nothing (while lefties bombed lefties), and stacks faltered brutally. Not to mention the Pirates got blown out. We’ll chalk that one up as a loss, moving forward as quickly as possible.

Friday, July 31^st is deadline day! We have a full slate of games, and if the past week has been of any indication, there should be a boat load of roster changes. Luckily the action should commence somewhere around 4 pm, and that gives us enough time to clear the dust and figure out who is on what team. I’ll do my best to avoid the players who may get traded tomorrow, but be sure to check on your players if you’re someone who sets their lineup early. Let’s get to it!

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Offenses to Target for FanDuel DFS

St. Louis Cardinals (vs. Kyle Kendrick, RHP)

This stack isn’t so much picking on Kendrick as much as it is loving the lefty bats in St. Louis right now. Matt Carpenter had a huge game yesterday, and we’ll touch on his value later. Kolten Wong and Jason Heyward are the other two lefties that I love to plug in against right-handed pitchers. Wong has .358 wOBA this season against righties, while Heyward has a .327 wOBA against right-handed pitchers. If you are someone who usually fully stacks a team (four players), then you could also take a flyer on newly acquired Brandon Moss (if he makes it in the lineup) or underpriced Jhonny Peralta.

Baltimore Orioles (vs. Buck Farmer, RHP)

Buck Farmer, while having a pretty great name, has not been a great pitcher. He’s certainly not 9.22 ERA bad, but his xFIP shows us a pitcher who will likely settle down into an above-four ERA. Despite the eventual regression of Farmer’s 25% HR/FB rate, I like the Orioles’ power hitters in this matchup.

Manny Machado is my first target, with his reverse splits leading to a .380 wOBA against righties this year. Chris Davis brings a red-hot bat into this matchup with a .351 wOBA vs. righties to go along with it. Matt Wieters and Adam Jones cap off the stack. Not only are both players underpriced based on their power potentials, but they each fared well yesterday against right-handed Alfredo Simon and righties in the Tigers’ bullpen (if you want to call it that). The only other consideration I might have would be someone like Travis Snider at a low price if he finds himself in the top half of the lineup.

DFS Starting Pitchers to Target for FanDuel

Madison Bumgarner (SP, SFG) - $11,400

This move may certainly come back to bite me, but I have a gut feeling about it, and I’m sticking to it. The Rangers have a track record of being awful this season against lefties (their wOBA puts them at 21^st in the league, while their wRC+ puts them at 25^th). They did just shell C.C. Sabathia last night, but MadBum is no C.C. There are plenty of strikeout candidates in that lineup, including names like Josh Hamilton, Mitch Moreland, and Prince Fielder. Bumgarner also saves you nearly $2,000 in budget compared to Kershaw, and if Mike Trout and The Machine have anything to say, Kershaw is not sure thing either.

Johnny Cueto (SP, KAN) - $10,300

Yes, you’re going to need some cheap bats today. I find it very hard to believe that all three of the studs on the bump today will falter. So, I think a tournament winner will have one of these three guys. The big chance to stand out from the crowd will likely be to get in on Cueto.

His price is enormous for someone pitching in Toronto, but the narrative basically writes itself. After getting pounded in game one, the Royals send their newly acquired ace to the mound and he shuts down the scariest offense in the MLB. Cueto has the ability to do that. He should get plenty of strikeouts, and the Royals should be able to put up runs against Drew Hutchinson. If Cueto can limit the Jays to three runs or less, he should be in line for a hefty handful of strikeouts and a win. Hopefully the money you saved by not going Bumgarner or Kershaw can push you past the chalky tournament lineups.

DFS Infielders to Target for FanDuel

James McCann (C, DET) - $2,600

McCann has an incredible wRC+ of 174 against lefties. He gets Wei-Yin Chen on Friday, and he should be able to drive in some runs for a very low price as long as he’s in the lineup.

Anthony Rizzo (1B, CHC) - $3,100

The Cubbies’ first baseman now has a homer in back-to-back games after going 3-4 last night. His price is at its low point right now, so act on it while you can. Taylor Jungmann has been good, but Miller Park is small. Rizzo has the opportunity to make it three straight with a dinger on Friday.

Howie Kendrick (LOS, 2B) - $2,800

Everyone loves when the Dodgers play righties, but when they don’t, I love targeting Kendrick. He’s slightly better against lefties with a .324 wOBA against them this year, and he usually bats right atop a productive Dodgers lineup. Kendrick collected two hits last night and even stole a base. Take advantage of this low price when trying to make up for expensive pitching.

Matt Carpenter (3B, STL) - $2,700

Alongside Rizzo, Carpenter will be one of the highest owned players in any FanDuel format. He smashed two homers yesterday while going 4-5 on his way to 18.75 points. His .369 wOBA against righties is always promising, and you definitely want a share of Carpenter at this price point if he is indeed climbing out of his lengthy slump.

Brandon Crawford (SS, SFG) - $3,200

Although his price is a little higher than we’d like for a bargain buy, Crawford has produced against righties this year to the tune of a 125 wRC+. He just lost a seven-game hit streak last night, so he’ll be looking to start a new one against mediocre righty Nick Martinez. After starting the year with such promise, Martinez’s 4.08 ERA has skyrocketed lately due to lengthy hit and walk parades.

DFS Outfielders to Target for FanDuel

Yoenis Cespedes (OF, DET) - $3,600

If you’re going with Cueto instead of Bumgarner, you can bump this pick up to Nelson Cruz against lefty Tommy Milone. That’s lip-smacking good. But Cespedes is seemingly the next best thing. He takes his eight hits and three homers in the past four games into a matchup with Baltimore’s lefty, Chen. Cespedes’ season splits don’t bode well for lefties, but his career numbers put him at just above average with a 110 wRC+. Just be on the lookout for a possible trade before 4 pm that would scratch him from the lineup.

Yasiel Puig (OF, LOS) - $3,100

Let’s hope his 2-4 games with a homer on Wednesday is a sign that Puig is back. His price is very reasonable at the moment, and taking a chance on him makes sense against lefty Hector Santiago, as Puig has a .398 wOBA against lefties on the season. Once again, be on the lookout for a possible trade that spoils this pick.

Austin Jackon (OF, SEA) - $2,500

While Jackson was pulled mid-game last season at the trade deadline, I don’t see that being an issue today. However, he may be someone to take advantage of at this very low price. Jackson has seven hits in his last six games, including two doubles and two homers. His 111 wRC+ against lefties like Milone is just another reason to take a shot on the Mariners’ leadoff man.

Good luck with your FanDuel and DFS lineups RotoBallers!

DFS Q&A with Max Petrie @ 6PM on 7/31

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