Tiered 1B Rankings Analysis: Draft Strategy & Advice for First Basemen

Over the next week, RotoBaller analysts will give you a sneak peak into our consensus Premium Tiered Rankings at each position with some in-depth analysis to help you prepare for your drafts. We already looked at catchers, and today we tackle first base. The rest of our tiered rankings can be found in our 2015 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit & Cheat Sheet. 

Tiered rankings are critical for fantasy baseball drafts. Faced with the decision of drafting player X or Y at First Base, you need to have an idea of how those players stack up against each other. If they are in the same tier, you can wait on the more costly first basemen, and draft the cheaper one instead.

Having tiers for first basemen will help avoid overpaying for power and also help spend your draft dollars or picks as wisely as possible.

 

Tiered First Base Rankings Analysis

First base typically boasts some of the best hitters in the game, and you can never go wrong taking the top tier guys early in any draft. If you miss out on those first few studs, there is plenty to fall back on. Power is typically the name of the game when it comes to drafting first basemen, but some offer a bit more. Knowing how to distinguish value in the middle tiers can make or break your season, as there are usually some great sleepers lurking there (think Jose Abreu in 2014). Below I’ll provide a sneak peak into the third and fourth tiers of RotoBaller’s Premium Tiered Rankings.

*Note: All round estimates are based on 10 or 12-team leagues.

 

Tier 3 - Solid Starters

These are the guys who are the top options after everyone in the league has filled the 1B spot and is looking to add a solid corner infielder. However, you may still be able to get top 15 production out of some of them, which could make them excellent value picks if you wait a little bit.

2015 was a tale of two halves for Brandon Moss. He hit 21 homers in the first half before stumbling mightily after the All-Star Break, finishing with only 25 home runs and a lowly .234 batting average. However, it was later revealed that he had been playing with a torn labrum in his hip, which would certainly account for his atrocious second half. He was traded to Cleveland in the offseason, and should benefit significantly from leaving the cavernous O.co Coliseum. A healthy Brandon Moss is capable of 35 homers and 90 RBIs, and his batting average should float around .250 or so, making him a very decent option at first base—provided he stays healthy.

Carlos Santana will split time with Moss at first base and DH for the Tribe in 2015, providing them with a potent 1-2 punch in the middle of the lineup. His 2014 was the complete opposite of Moss’s, as he was awful in the first half and broke out in the second half. I like Santana to put up top 10 first base numbers in 2015, as his combination of power and high walk rate should leave fantasy owners satisfied throughout the year, although the batting average may be lacking. Look for him in the 6^th or 7^th rounds.

Prince Fielder could be an excellent pick for the middle rounds of the draft, as he is very likely to return to the player he was in Milwaukee. He now plays in a hitter’s paradise in Texas, and should come at a significant discount coming off of the neck injury that cost him 120 games in 2014. Assuming that Fielder plays at least 140 games (and all signs currently point to him being healthy to start the season), I would consider him a lock for 25 homers and 80 RBIs. He could return 3^rd or 4^th round value for a 6^th or 7^th round pick.

Sigh, Chris Davis. That magical first half from 2013 is a distant memory—owners who wasted a 1^st or 2^nd round pick on him last season probably still meet in church basements for Chris Davis Owners Anonymous on Sunday evenings. He is still a big, strong, middle-of-the-lineup type, but you better get used to the dismal batting average that will probably accompany his 30+ homers. It won’t be as bad as last year, as he had a comically bad .242 BABIP, but I still don’t see him breaking .240 on the season.

Chris Carter is a big, strong, middle-of-the-lineup type, but you better get used to the dismal batting average that will probably accompany his 30+ homers. Whoa, déjà vu. Seriously though, if you draft Chris Carter (who may only have DH-eligibility in some leagues), you’re looking for power numbers and that’s it. If strikeouts count against you, you may want to look elsewhere.

Brandon Belt was off to a good start last season, justifying some of the hype that he had coming into 2014. However, a broken finger and concussion robbed Belt of a large chunk of the season, and he finished with dismal numbers. I like him a lot more going into 2015, as those kinds of injuries do not make him “injury-prone”. A full season will probably yield a .260 average with 20 jacks and 60 runs/RBIs. Belt will make for a nice corner infield option later in drafts, around the 20^th-22^nd rounds.

I would draft Laroche higher than the rankings have him, as he has quietly been one of baseball’s better power hitters over the last few years. He will now play half of his games at US Cellular Field, which should benefit his power numbers. The veteran lefty should ride his looping swing to a solid season, a virtual lock for 25 homers and 80 RBIs. You could probably wait as long as the 16^th-18^th rounds and get decent first base production and exceptional corner infield production.

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Tier 4 - Serviceable Starters

This is where the first base position really starts to fall off. These players should all be rostered, but you’re now looking at utility fantasy players versus solid starting first basemen.

Lucroy is not eligible at first base in all leagues, which justifies how low he’s ranked here. If he is eligible, you could certainly put him in the second tier of first basemen. He typically has a high batting average for catchers and first basemen, and backs it up with 15+ homers and 70 runs/RBIs. I imagine he’ll go in most drafts no later than the 7^th round, and ultimately if you’re looking for first base production you can find enough value in the later rounds.

Matt Adams is a difficult player to rank, as he should be capable of top 15 first base numbers. However, he struggles enough against lefties that he is usually part of a platoon. That leaves him as a solid corner infielder, but not much more. You’ll likely get a solid .280+ batting average, but he is going to be limited in all other counting stats simply due to the lack of at-bats. Unless he takes significant strides against lefties, expect him to remain a backup fantasy player who’ll need to be subbed out semi-frequently.

Duda used to be very similar to Adams as far as the platooning goes, but in 2014 he was afforded a full season of at-bats, and didn’t disappoint. Duda is now more comparable to Brandon Moss, as he should be able to approach the 30 homers he hit last year, and have the runs and RBIs that come with powers numbers like that. You’re looking at .250 or so for the batting average, but this is first base—you can deal with that for 30 jacks. A solid corner infielder with an 18^th-20^th round price tag? Sign me up.

Pearce should be on your radar in deeper mixed leagues after a breakout season (albeit at age 31) with the Orioles last season. His numbers should be relatively similar, with some regression factored in, in 2015, which makes him a decent late-round choice. This is a guy who can fill in at corner infield or in your utility slot if you miss out on some of the higher-ranked options. He won’t hurt you in any category except speed, and he carries eligibility for the outfield as well. As a reference point, I was able to take him in the 24^th round in a recent draft, and was more than happy to make him my utility guy to start the season.

Everyone (myself included) was excited about Trumbo in 2014 as he headed to Arizona. However, he lost half of his season to a broken foot, and comes into 2015 with somewhat of a discount tag. When healthy, the powerful righty slugger is one of the premier power threats in the game, and should have no problem tattooing 30 fastballs over the fence if he plays 150 games, but temper your expectations elsewhere. Low walk rates and high strikeout rates will negate some of the power value he carries, typically keeping him just on the cusp of being a top 15 first baseman. Target him around the 11^th-13^th rounds—if someone wants to stretch for him before then, let them.

This is Eric Hosmer’s last chance with me. As one of the highest-touted prospects in recent memory, Hosmer still hasn’t reached his full potential. However, he is still only 25, meaning it’s not at all too late for a breakout season. I’m not willing to take the risk unless the price is absolutely right. He was taken in the 16^th round in the aforementioned draft, and that is still too early for me—I wouldn’t take him any earlier than the 18^th round regardless of format. Best case scenario is he hits .300 with 20 homers and 10 stolen bases—worst case scenario he repeats his performance from last year, which was .270 with nine homers and four steals. I’m drafting with last season in mind, and anything better than that is just gravy.

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