Fantasy Football Stock Rising / Falling after Preseason Week 1

News, Notes and Fantasy Football Analysis

Week 1 of NFL Preseason Action

Let’s face it: the main reason to be excited about preseason football isn’t simply that there are “games” on, but that the actual ones that matter are rapidly approaching. For fantasy, that means it’s crunch time for monitoring which sleepers are worth taking a late-round flyer on, and which rookies and veteran players you should let other owners take the gamble on. Although the first week of preseason games are never the most revealing, there are still some tidbits to touch upon that you need to consider for your draft strategy.

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Getting through one week of preseason football without any major injuries is always a huge plus both for real life and fantasy. That said, there were some minor bumps along the way. New York Jets running back Chris Ivory left the first preseason game early with an apparent rib injury.

It doesn't appear all that serious, but it should be noted that Ivory has a history of getting banged up, so it may end up impacting how the Jets split carries among their backs. It’s assumed the team will use a committee approach, but if health continues to be an issue for Ivory, it’s possible recent signee Chris Johnson may get more of the workload than initially thought. It’s a minor detail for now, but something to keep in mind.

What Else Has Been Going On

A host of other players were held out of preseason action entirely, most of which were for precautionary measures. Arian Foster did not play in the Houston Texans preseason opener after tweaking his hamstring a few weeks back. He has since returned to practice, but with concerns over Foster’s usage and overall health, it’s a bit troublesome that he’s already banged up. We should expect Foster to be ready for week one, just be wary of his history when drafting him. If he’s anything close to what he was when healthy two years ago, he should easily end up a top 10 back.

Other notable no-shows include a trio of receivers recovering from 2013 injuries in Julio Jones, Randall Cobb and Reggie Wayne. All three should be eased back into action at some point, so there aren’t any concerns regarding their availability for the start of the regular season.

The other main storyline that will surely last the entire preseason is what quarterback the Cleveland Browns decide to trot out as their starter. Brian Hoyer got the nod in the first exhibition game, but Johnny Manziel did get the chance to show off his athleticism on a few plays.

This QB battle is almost certainly going to last way longer than any of us would have liked, so there isn’t all that much to read into here just yet. The hope is that Manziel eventually outshines Hoyer and gets the starting gig, which could result in fantasy goodness. Until then, there’s nothing we can do but just sit back and watch this QB competition develop.

Speaking of the potential for Johnny Manziel’s fantasy stock to skyrocket, some other players have shifted along the spectrum of fantasy relevance, so let’s address those names we see as Risers/Fallers, shall we?

Fantasy Football Stock Rising

1) Rashad Jennings, Running Back, New York Giants

Jennings is certainly one player that caught everyone’s eye after just one exhibition game. Anytime a player breaks off a 73-yard touchdown, it’s sure to garner a boatload of attention from fantasy owners. Sure, it’s only one big play in one preseason game, but sometimes that’s all it takes for a player’s average draft position to rise. After all, we’re looking for the next breakout stars during games that don’t count within a limited sample size.

Now that Jennings has more attention on him, he’ll likely receive a bump up from his sixth-round ADP, which is perfectly fine. Taking Jennings in the fifth or late-fourth when you’re looking to secure a second running back is a fair strategy, but don’t overdo it. The spread between all of the RB2s is closer than ever, so although Jennings is a more attractive name than he was two weeks ago, don’t go crazy trying to get him. He should be a decent enough RB2, especially in PPR leagues thanks to the new offense that coordinator Ben McAdoo has implemented.

2) Brandin Cooks, Wide Receiver, New Orleans Saints

If you’re looking at Brandin's 12th-round ADP and salivating at the thought of snagging him there, you should know you’re not even close to alone. As RotoBaller's own Evan Okulanis points out, Cooks was an automatic sleeper the second the Saints drafted him, due largely to the powerful offense they’ve been known for over the years.

Cooks put up solid numbers in his preseason debut, with five receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown. Cooks was already a sleeper to begin with so a performance like that without even Drew Brees throwing to him, albeit in a preseason game, is sure to increase his value.

You can forget about that 12th-round ADP-- you’re going to need to reach for Cooks to ensure you get him. And when you look at some of the receivers being drafted ahead of him, he’s totally worth it. Hakeem Nicks? Danny Amendola? Dwayne Bowe? Pass, pass and pass. That bumps Cooks up to the 10th round.

3)  Carlos Hyde, Running Back, San Francisco 49ers

Carlos Hyde is a bit trickier to evaluate, given that starting running back Frank Gore did not play in the first exhibition game. That said, Hyde did manage to average 7.8 yards per carry in his debut, which should give him a boost in upcoming fantasy drafts. Every year, people doubt Frank Gore’s ability to keep performing at a high level, yet every year he manages to prove everybody wrong.

The 49ers will surely continue to limit Gore’s touches once again, so Hyde is no longer a simple handcuff option. He could end up being a bigger part of the offense than anticipated. He’s a 15th-rounder at the moment, but I would expect that to increase as we get closer to the start of the regular season, especially when you factor in fighting off potential handcuffers.

Fantasy Football Stock Falling

1)  Knowshon Moreno, Running Back, Miami Dolphins

Hopefully you avoided the misfortune of being burned by Dolphins running back Lamar Miller last year, but if you didn't, you’re surely hesitant about believing in him once again. The problem is that Knowshon Moreno still isn’t sitting atop the Miami depth chart. That’s not good, considering we’re about to enter the second preseason game.

Moreno showed up to camp overweight and requiring a knee surgery from which he is still recovering. Miller didn’t exactly blow anyone away with his four carries for 11 yards last week, but the fact that Moreno isn’t yet at the level many expected him to be is concerning. Unless we see something from Moreno before the start of the season, I can’t possibly justify taking him at his current 10th-round ADP. I’d much rather wait another round and grab Lamar Miller, since he's actually playing.

2) Steven Jackson, Running Back, Atlanta Falcons

Much like Knowshon Moreno, Steven Jackson is also a victim of circumstance here. After Jackson was sidelined indefinitely with a hamstring injury, rookie Devonta Freeman came out with a solid 5.0 yards per carry that will exert some pressure on Jackson.

The Falcons do have other backs on their roster, so they would likely share carries should Jackson end up missing an extended amount of time during the regular season.

Steven Jackson should be viewed as an RB3 at best right now, and his recent drop in ADP reflects that. For now, the other backs in Atlanta are simply names to keep an eye on with Freeman leading the charge. As far as Jackson is concerned, wait on him if you can.

3) DeSean Jackson, Wide Receiver, Washington Redskins

If you’ve noticed a trend here, good job keeping up. DeSean Jackson returned to practice this week after missing time with a sore ankle. The injury isn’t all that concerns me, though-- it's the role, as well. Fellow wide receiver Pierre Garcon led the NFL in targets last year with a whopping 184. No one expects that number to stay so high with the newly acquired Jackson on the squad, but Washington won't simply forget about Garcon.

Jackson is currently being drafted as a late-fourth round/early-fifth-round pick, which is just straight-up bonkers. The next group of receivers going after him include Wes Welker on a potent Denver offense, Roddy White on a Falcons team that is surely going to bounce back, and two clear-cut number one receivers in Victor Cruz and Keenan Allen. I prefer all four of those guys to DeSean. Until I see the exact role DeSean Jackson is going to fill in Washington, I can’t justify spending such a high pick as his ADP would indicate.

Fantasy stock practically changes daily so monitor all of the situations mentioned as best you can and make whatever decision you’re most comfortable with. Hopefully the next batch of preseason games offers some more clarity on these storylines but there is sure to be new ones that arise.