Payton Tolle 2026 Player Outlook: Nasty Stuff, Raw Talent, but No Defined Role
A big-bodied lefty at 6'6" 250, Tolle came out of the gate hot with an eight-strikeout performance in his big league debut. Unfortunately, things went sideways for him in the next two starts and he was demoted to the bullpen, where he did post a 3.00 ERA and 2.83 xFIP, albeit in just six innings. He's best known for his monster fastball, a 96.7 mph offering with 16.7 inches of induced vertical break and 6.8 inches of arm-side movement. This fastball plays up because Tolle uses his long arms to get 7.5 feet of extension, making the hard fastball come at hitters that much quicker. He also has a deep arsenal of secondary stuff, including a cutter, slider, changeup, and curveball. The cutter, slider, and changeup all had whiff rates of 30% or higher in the majors. Tolle has big strikeout upside, posting an overall 36.5% K rate in the minors last season, though it fell to 28.8% at Triple-A and 25.7% in the majors. Regarded as one of baseball's top pitching prospects, Tolle has shown decent command for a pitcher with his size and velocity. He had a 6.3% walk rate in the minors, but it ballooned to 10.8% in the majors. He struggled to make hitters chase with just a 22.2% o-swing rate, which likely led to the increased walks. He might not make the team out of Spring Training, and if he does it could be in a relief role. It might take an injury or struggles from someone like Johan Oviedo for Tolle to get a rotation spot, but even then he has fellow pitching prospect Connelly Early to contend with. We'll likely see Tolle in the majors again this season, but it's hard to say when and in what capacity.
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