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Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola is coming off one of the worst seasons in his 11-year career with the Phillies, with a 6.01 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 97 strikeouts in 94 1/3 innings pitched. Nola dealt with a lingering ankle injury that kept him out for over three months, and he clearly was not able to get right throughout the season. While his underlying numbers show room for positive regression (4.13 xERA, 3.81 SIERA, and 3.71 xFIP), he never found a groove during the 2025 season, and it's difficult to suggest that he can surpass anything but his career average at this point (3.83 ERA and 1.15 WHIP). On the bright side, he still induced an excellent 33.5 percent chase rate (93rd percentile) and a slightly above-average 24 percent strikeout rate and 25.2 percent whiff rate. Nola is now 32 years old and projected to be the Phillies' No. 3 starter behind Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo. The former 2014 first-round pick will look to rebound in 2026, but there aren't many data points showcasing that he will turn back the clock to his elite form, as RotoBaller ranks him as SP61, while NFBC ADP ranks him 209.0 overall. At this point in his career, he may be looked at as more of an innings eater and work deep into ball games, assuming he can limit the loud contact.--Nicho Roessler
Source: RotoBaller
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