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Overshadowed on Cincinnati by the likes of Hunter Greene and Chase Burns, Abbott quietly had a breakout season in 2025. He posted a 2.87 ERA and 15.5% K-BB% in 166.1 innings. He was a rock for the Reds and fantasy managers, but it seems that no one believes in him as he's going around pick 221 in NFBC leagues. It's easy to see why managers doubt Abbott's success. Yes, he had a 2.87 ERA, but he also had a 4.31 xFIP, 4.20 SIERA, and a pedestrian 21.8% K rate. It took some good fortune for Abbott to put up a sub-3 ERA, such as his .274 BABIP against, 80% LOB rate, and 8.3% HR/FB ratio. All of those numbers seem unsustainable, and it's really hard to believe he'll have a sub-10% HR/FB ratio again pitching home games at Great American Ballpark. There is sneaky downside here, as Abbott has middling stuff and struggles to get whiffs, and can be susceptible to home runs. He may not necessarily fall all the way to what his xFIP and SIERA projected last season, but I'd expect his final ERA to fall closer to the high-3s, like where it was his first two seasons. He could be a steady, low-upside arm to pick later in drafts, but don't expect a repeat of 2025.--Elliott Baas
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