2025 Fantasy Basketball Breakouts: Super Sophomores

Thunder Dan Palyo dives into the data from the first two months of the NBA season to see which second year players are breaking out and showing signs of being reliable fantasy assets.

What do the Spurs, Thunder, and Pistons all have in common? They all have a young core of players in place and have made some savvy moves through the draft and trades, building impressive organizational depth. The youth movement is on full display so far in the 2025 NBA season, and there is no shortage of players in their early twenties who are making a huge impact for their teams.

We probably want to reserve judgment on the rookies at this stage of the season, and to be fair, only a handful of them are making a big impact so far in year one. Instead, this series has been focusing on other young players who are showing signs of breaking out, as well as a few who have struggled to gain their footing.

Last week, we focused on third-year players. Today, I'll take a closer look at some sophomores who are busting out in a big way and a few who are failing to meet expectations as well.

Fantasy Basketball: Second Year Breakouts

All statistics are current as of Tuesday, February 16th.

Alexandre Sarr, PF/C - Washington Wizards

2025 Stats: 19.1 PTS, 8.6 REB, 3.3 AST, 0.8 STL, 2.0 BLK, 1.1 3PTM, 51.%% FG%, 63.9% FT%, 2.1 TO

Sarr has been on the shelf for nearly three weeks now, and we don't have much clarity on when he will return. Clearly, the Wizards are going to exercise caution with Sarr, who they have to view as the most important building block for their rebuild.

Before being sidelined, Sarr was playing at a high level and had cracked the top-50 in 9-CAT, even while playing just 29 minutes per game. Sarr's scoring took a huge leap from his rookie year to year two (13.0 points to 19.1 points), and his FG% also has dramatically improved from 39% to 51.5%. That likely has to do with the fact that he's taking two fewer three-point attempts per game and 4.5 more shots from inside the arc.

Sarr continues to be an elite shot blocker with 2.0 per game, and it makes you wonder what his ceiling is there if he's ever allowed to play 34 minutes a night. The only wart in his game that stands out is the 64% from the free-throw line, but it's a small price to pay for some fantastic production across the board.

Let's hope he gets back on the court sooner than later, because Sarr was showcasing all of his skills, putting up big numbers, and making a case for how he should have been the top pick in the draft last year.

Reed Sheppard, PG/SG - Houston Rockets

2025 Stats: 12.9 PTS, 3.1 REB, 3.1 AST, 1.6 STL, 0.5 BLK, 2.6 3PTM, 47.7% FG%, 69.6% FT%, 1.3 TO

Sheppard was a popular value pick late in drafts, and after the first few weeks of the season, he was already being dropped by a lot of managers after a very slow start to his sophomore campaign. But Fred Van Vleet's season-ending injury in the preseason created a void that simply couldn't be filled without Sheppard, and he's stepped up his game in a big way over the last month.

.@reed_sheppard saw nothing but the rock & the rim 👏 pic.twitter.com/jKksFNpleM

— Houston Rockets (@HoustonRockets) December 16, 2025

Sheppard's role off the bench is an important one, as he has been an effective scorer and a surprisingly good defender. He currently ranks 61st in 9-CAT on the strength of 2.6 threes, 1.6 steals, and 0.6 blocks on only 1.3 turnovers. The point totals are going to fluctuate on a nightly basis, and you'd love to see more than just three assists per game, but Sheppard's ability to consistently knock down threes (43.7% from deep) has been a big part of Houston's success this season.

If he goes through a week with some single-digit scoring games, resist the temptation to cut Sheppard, even in shallower formats. His game has translated very well for fantasy purposes, and he's going to have solid value in this role for the rest of the season.

Zach Edey, C - Memphis Grizzlies

2025 Stats: 13.6 PTS, 11.1 REB, 1.1 AST, 0.6 STL, 1.9 BLK, 0.1 3PTM, 63.3% FG%, 78.1% FT%, 2.4 TO

Another sophomore who looked tremendous before suffering another setback was the former Purdue big man Edey. The giant missed the first month of the season as he was recovering from a surgical procedure on his ankle, but had posted some massive numbers in his first 11 games of the year. But last week, he went down again with yet another injury to his troublesome left ankle and is set to miss at least a month.

year-two Zach Edey: interior force pic.twitter.com/hKIDFMS9Gl

— Brett Usher (@UsherNBA) December 1, 2025

Edey's performance when healthy was downright awesome. He was stacking up double-doubles with ease and blocking nearly two shots per game in only 26 minutes a night. He had improved his FG% and FT% from year one and looked poised for a huge second year.

You have to stash him on your IR now and hope for the best, but the fact that he's now had multiple injuries to the same ankle is problematic, and we know that players of his size have run into issues with their lower body often in the past. I hope we get a healthy Edey back on the court in January, because he was proving all of his doubters wrong with his play, and he makes Memphis a much better team when he's in the lineup.

Matas Buzelis, SF/PF - Chicago Bulls

2025 Stats: 13.6 PTS, 5.5 REB, 1.6 AST, 0.9 STL, 1.4 BLK, 1.4 3PTM, 47.1% FG%, 82.4% FT%, 1.9 TO

If you just glance at Buzelis's stat line, you may not come away all that impressed. Buzelis had some lofty expectations thrust upon him by many of us in the fantasy industry (myself included), and with a 9-CAT rank of just 102, he's underperformed compared to where he was drafted by a lot of managers.

MATAS BUZELIS CAUGHT A BODY.@BuzelisMatas | @CHSN__ pic.twitter.com/8RBPJMleeX

— Chicago Bulls (@chicagobulls) December 8, 2025

But the reality is that the 21-year-old has improved his numbers across the board when compared to his rookie season, with the one exception being a small decline in his 3PT%. Part of the reason that his numbers don't pop as they should has been that he's playing only 28 minutes per night, when many of us had projected him to be playing 32-33 minutes per game as a member of the starting lineup.

The Bulls have been playing a lot of guys in their rotations, and after a fluky hot start to the year, they lost five in a row and have recently lost eight of their last nine. Now they're looking more like a lottery team, and we are starting to hear trade rumors concerning Nikola Vucevic, Coby White, and others.

Those who drafted Buzelis with expectations of a top-75 season just have to hold on for now. He clearly has the skill set to get there, and if Chicago ends up making some moves before the deadline, perhaps we see more minutes for Matas and a bigger role for him on offense.

Jaylon Tyson, SG/SF - Cleveland Cavaliers

2025 Stats: 13.1 PTS, 5.7 REB, 1.9 AST, 1.0 STL, 0.6 BLK, 2.1 3PTM, 52.7% FG%, 78% FT%, 0.9 TO

The Cavaliers are having a disappointing start to the season by their standards, as this team was expected to be atop the Eastern Conference standings and make a run at getting to the NBA finals. But a combination of injuries and some defensive deficiencies has plagued the Cavs, who find themselves only a few games above .500.

One bright spot for Cleveland has been the emergence of their 2024 first-round pick, Jaylon Tyson. The Cavs were able to snag Tyson at 20th overall last year and while he played just nine minutes per game in his rookie campaign, he's been leaned on heavily this year, making 16 starts and playing 28 minutes per night.

Jaylon Tyson runs the floor like a madman pic.twitter.com/xyK4oVtzyg

— Tony Pesta (@Tony_Pesta) December 7, 2025

Whether he's starting or coming off the bench, Tyson has been one of the most consistent contributors in Cleveland this season. He's showing off some impressive rebounding for his size in addition to some elite shooting from beyond the arc (46.5% on 4.5 attempts per game).

Tyson is returning top-70 value right now, and with Evan Mobley out for what sounds like at least the next three weeks, he should continue to get plenty of playing time. The breakout has been awesome to see and I don't see any reason to think it's going to stop anytime soon.

Kyshawn George, SG/SF/PF - Washington Wizards

2025 Stats: 14.9 PTS, 5.8 REB, 4.9 AST, 1.1 STL, 0.9 BLK, 2.5 3PTM, 46.2% FG%, 73.2% FT%, 3.3 TO

It's looking more and more like the Wizards may have struck gold twice in the draft last year, snagging the freakishly athletic big man Sarr at second overall and then grabbing George at 24th overall with their other first-round pick. George ended up playing quite a bit as a rookie, averaging 26.5 minutes per game across 68 games (38 starts), but was horribly inefficient, shooting 37% from the floor and finishing with averages of 8.7-4.2-2.5.

Kyshawn George: Sophomore leap 📈 pic.twitter.com/FUDPfKJCW4

— Greg Finberg (@GregFinberg) December 15, 2025

But something has clicked in year two for George, both as a scorer and a shot-creator for others. He's shooting the ball much better from behind the arc (43.9%) and from two-point range (48.4%) while doubling up his assists from 2.5 to 4.9. The Wizards have embraced using George on the ball more this season, initiating the pick-and-roll and driving the ball into the paint, where he can both score from the mid-range and find others for open shots.

His game is still sloppy at times, and the increased ball-handling has led to 3.3 turnovers per game. However, his across-the-board contributions and improved efficiency have boosted him up into the top 100 in 9-cat production so far this season. His length also helps him stack up some solid defensive stats (2.0 combined blocks/steals) that balance out his fantasy game quite nicely.

There have been some rough stretches for George this season, but that's to be expected from a very young player who is playing on a very bad team. However, the arrow is clearly pointing up on his value, and he looks like a player who could end up rounding into form at just rthe ight time for the fantasy playoffs - especially if Washington has shut down or traded some veterans like CJ McCollum or Khris Middleton by then.

Ajay Mitchell, PG/SG - Oklahoma City Thunder

2025 Stats: 14.0 PTS, 3.3 REB, 3.7 AST, 1.5 STL, 0.3 BLK, 1.1 3PTM, 46.7% FG%, 88.5% FT%, 1.6 TO

It would be unfair not to mention Mitchell among these breakouts simply because he's no longer a "must-roster" player in most leagues anymore. The reality is that when the OKC Thunder are fully healthy, Mitchell simply doesn't usually play enough minutes to be viable in 12-team leagues or shallower. However, he was a top-60 player for the first month of the season when he was thrust into a larger role due to injuries to Jalen Williams, Isaiah Joe, and Alex Caruso (among others).

Mitchell is our first of two second-round success stories in this piece and further evidence that OKC is playing chess in the draft, while others play checkers. He'd be starting on at least half of the other teams in the league right now, and I don't think that's too bold a claim by any means.

Mitchell is the type of combo guard that would fit on any NBA roster. He can score at all three levels with moderate efficiency while also defending at a high level. His 1.6 steals per game in only 26 minutes would translate to 2.0 steals per contest if he were playing starters' minutes. He's not likely going to be a fantasy option in standard leagues this season unless we see another injury to a key guard in the OKC rotation, but Mitchell should be rostered in deep leagues and is a guy who could emerge next year as a fantasy target if OKC shakes up their roster, or sends him elsewhere as a package to bring in another veteran.

Cam Spencer, PG/SG - Memphis Grizzlies

2025 Stats: 12.0 PTS, 2.2 REB, 4.0 AST, 0.8 STL, 0.1 BLK, 2.5 3PTM, 51.5% FG%, 91.5% FT%, 1.2 TO

How is it possible that a backup guard playing only 22 minutes per game can crack the top 100 in 9-CAT? Well, when you're shooting 51% from beyond the arc and playing some of the most efficient basketball of any bench player in the league, it's quite possible! This is the story of Cam Spencer, who was taken in the second round by Memphis last season after leading the UCONN Huskies to multiple championships during his senior year of college.

Cam is an easy underdog to root for. He had to play at Loyola for three seasons before transferring to Rutgers and ultimately UCONN in his final year of eligibility. He's not all that big or fast, but has an exceptional NBA IQ and has made himself into an elite shooter. He's older than most sophomores (at age 23), and his game is more polished as a result - and it's showing in his play.

Only 2 players in NBA history have averaged 15+ PPG on 85% TS% over a 10 game span:

- Kyle Korver (2017)
- Cam Spencer (last 10 games)

Camdemonium 🤯 pic.twitter.com/CMmnsJEkbF

— The Lead (@TheLeadSM) December 16, 2025

Right now, he's on an incredible run, and it's a shame he's set to miss tonight's game with the Timberwolves because he has been must-watch television of late with his insane shooting streak. He'll cool off at some point and will also have to contend with the eventual returns of Ty Jerome and Scotty Pippen Jr. to the rotation. But Spencer has proven he can play at this level and is deserving of our attention in fantasy hoops when he's getting this many minutes.

Fantasy Basketball: Second Year Busts

Zaccharie Risacher, SF/PF - Atlanta Hawks

2025 Stats: 11.2 PTS, 2.7 REB, 1.5 AST, 1.1 STL, 0.5 BLK, 1.3 3PTM, 46.3% FG%, 69.7% FT%, 0.8 TO

We are going to use the term "bust" very cautiously here because all of these players have a ton of talent and a lot more time to make good on their potential. However, just as I did last week with Scoot Henderson, I think we have to hold Zaccharie Risacher to a high standard based on where he was taken in this draft class (first overall).

It was a bit of a controversial pick at the time, and it's only looking worse with age as Risacher has yet to really break out for the Hawks. In his defense, he's on a very good team that doesn't need him to do all that much on a nightly basis, compared to someone like Alex Sarr, who is being featured nightly on a bad team.

However, his numbers are still largely underwhelming, and his performance is anything but consistent. He looks like a player who could be a valuable rotational piece on the wing, but he certainly doesn't look like a superstar by any means. We aren't likely to see him make a major fantasy impact this season as Atlanta is loaded with a deep rotation, so any hopes for a fantasy breakout will have to wait until at least year three.

Cody Williams, SG/SF - Utah Jazz

2025 Stats: 2.9 PTS, 0.9 REB, 0.6 AST, 0.2 STL, 0.1 BLK, 0.2 3PTM, 36.7 FG%, 25% FT%, 0.4 TO

Cody Williams has two things working against him. He probably came out one year too early for the draft after playing just one season at Colorado, and he happens to be the younger brother of the incredibly successful Jalen Williams of the NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder. He was also taken in the top ten of this draft class at just age 19 despite very limited action in college, so he has a lot to live up to with his draft position and family pedigree.

Notable players the Jazz COULD have taken instead of Cody Williams in last year's draft

Matas Buzelis
Bub Carrington
Kel'el Ware
Jared McCain
Kyshawn George
Ryan Dunn
Ajay Mitchell
Jaylen Wells

Would you feel better about the Jazz's rebuild with one of these players? pic.twitter.com/GVA7ICrb6u

— Jazz Lead (@JazzLead) November 23, 2025

And for those very reasons, it's probably unfair to read too much into his lack of contribution to Utah right now. But I am going to do it anyway. The Jazz have been stockpiling assets for several seasons now, and I am really not sure what their plans for the future are and where Williams fits in. He's been playing mainly in the G-League this year, but he's even been overshadowed there by guys like Walter Clayton Jr. and Taylor Hendricks in terms of production.

He may find his way into the rotation later this season if Utah finally goes into its annual tank mode, but my expectations, based on his play so far, are pretty low. He might be a late bloomer who could be another several years away from making an impact or he could end up being a total bust altogether. In today's NBA, lottery picks are usually expected to show some signs of progress by at least year three, so the pressure could be on for Williams as early as next season.

Tristan da Silva, SF/PF - Orlando Magic

2025 Stats: 9.7 PTS, 3.9 REB, 1.2 AST, 0.8 STL, 0.2 BLK, 1.6 3PTM, 43.9 FG%, 81.5% FT%, 1.0 TO

This is probably the hardest guy to analyze of the group, but I think overall it's been a disappointing start to da Silva's sophomore season given the context surrounding his role in Orlando this year. While he has improved his scoring, threes, and added a few more boards and steals than last year, he really failed to capitalize on a huge opportunity to show that he was deserving of a bigger role on this Magic team while Paolo Banchero was out of the lineup.

Tristan da Silva has had a ROUGH December so far, shooting 25.6% from the floor and 21.7% from three, only averaging 4.3 points.

This month, he has finished with zero points THREE TIMES and shot ONE free throw.

I still like him as a player, but he has to be better for the team. pic.twitter.com/CQyRzBCJcz

— Bernard Oliver (@boliver36) December 14, 2025

I really thought he'd slide right into the starting lineup at power forward and see a bump in production, but he really didn't do enough as a starter to hold that spot and was sent back to the bench, where he occasionally has a good game every once in a while.

He's clearly got NBA talent and is a big, athletic player who has shown the ability to run the floor, space the floor, and defend. We just haven't seen him do it consistently, and I think Orlando was banking on him taking a much bigger leap in year two than we have seen so far. He's off our radar for fantasy purposes until we see him be a more consistent player, even with Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs out with injuries.

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