Running Back Matchups to Target in Week 10 (2025) - James Cook, Rico Dowdle, Kyren Williams, Kyle Monangai

Thunder Dan's favorite RB matchups to exploit for Week 10 of 2025 - DFS running backs to target on DraftKings and FanDuel. These RB matchups are GPP and cash game opportunities.

There are certain running backs, like Christian McCaffrey, who are matchup-proof because of their massive volume of touches or their heavy usage in the pass game. In CMC's case, it's both, and he's projected to lead the slate in rostership again on Sunday this week.

But we can roster two additional running backs on FanDuel and DraftKings in addition to McCaffrey in our cash game lineups, and we can build some McCaffrey-less lineups for tournaments where we fade him, too. So let's find the best possible matchups for the remaining running backs on the slate (CMC's actually doesn't look all that great on paper). As usual, I'm breaking down DVOA data, offensive line matchups, ratings, and various other metrics to validate those matchups and use as much empirical process as I can.

My goal in this weekly article will be to highlight the absolute best matchups for running backs on Sunday's main slate, with a primary focus on DFS. However, these are also running backs you should smash into your season-long lineups and great candidates for prop bets, too. We also have lots of great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win MORE this season! Without any further ado, here are my top FOUR (the pickings are kind of slim this week) matchups for Week 10.

• 2025 fantasy football rankings
• Running back (RB) fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver (WR) fantasy football rankings
• Tight end (TE) fantasy football rankings
• Quarterback (QB) fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Kicker (K) fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Week 10 Running Back Matchups

In my constant search for usable metrics, I crunched the first NINE weeks of data. The first column is the overall offensive rushing attack vs. their opponent, calculated using each team's offensive and defensive DVOA.

The second column is the offensive vs. defensive line matchup, calculated by using the "adjusted line yards" created and allowed by each team. The third column is simply Pro Football Focus' run-blocking grade for each team's offensive line.

James Cook ($7,500 DK, $9,200 FD)

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

The Bills are coming off their biggest win of the season against the Chiefs and bring their top-ranked rushing offense into Miami this weekend. Cook has been rolling lately as he went over 200 yards against the Panthers two weeks ago and followed that up with 114 yards against a typically stingy KC run defense last week.

Miami's rushing defense rank has improved during the course of the season, as they rank 14th against the run; however, they are still allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and just allowed Derrick Henry to go 19-119 on the ground last week.

The whole point of doing my ratings is so that we can see which matchups check multiple boxes, and this week checks all three as the entire rush offense grades out well. We have a dependable back, top-5 offensive line, and an opposing defense that has allowed four 100-yard rushers this season (including Cook's 19-108 in these teams' first meeting back in September).

Cook was on the injury report early in the week, but has been cleared, and I would expect him to resume his normal workload. Don't make the mistake of fading this spot. Cook has one of the highest ceilings on the slate and a potentially favorable game script as the Bills are heavily favored here, and Miami is down and out.

Kyren Williams ($6,600 DK, $8,200 FD)

L.A. Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Williams has shown up in this column a few times this season as he has had the benefit of running behind one of the better run-blocking offensive lines in Sean McVay's proven system. He seems to be perpetually underpriced on DraftKings and perhaps properly priced on FanDuel, but this week we should give him some strong consideration for our lineups again.

Williams had a nice outing last week against the Saints, running for 114 yards on 25 carries and scoring a touchdown. The concerns about Blake Corum cutting into his touches have been put to bed.

Not to rely totally on prior matchups, but like Cook, Williams has seen this divisional foe already once this season and had one of his best games of the year, although a lot of that production came as a receiver in that game. He ran for 65 yards and caught eight passes for another 66 yards and two touchdowns, which was good for 32 DK points.

If you remember, the Rams actually lost that game on a Thursday night at home in L.A. Now they head to the Bay Area for a rematch and are installed as five-point favorites.

This Rams offense is humming along right now, with Matthew Stafford locked in and having both of his elite receivers at his disposal. It's a tough offense to stop (ranked second in passing, third in rushing) as it's one of the most balanced attacks in the league. They can run to set up the pass and vice versa. Williams' ability to run between the tackles while also doing damage as a pass-catcher makes him an invaluable piece of this offense and a threat to break the slate if he finds paydirt multiple times.

What's changed since the first meeting between these teams is that the Niner defense has lost its All-Pro linebacker, Fred Warner, and now ranks 22nd against the run. In a huge divisional matchup with playoff implications, don't be surprised if McVay leans on his running game and his trusted back to grind the Niners into the ground.

Rico Dowdle ($6,300 DK, $8,000 FD)

Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints

If you have been reading this piece this year, you'll know that I have been babbling about how good the Panthers' offensive line is, as they often pop in the matchup rankings against inferior opponents. Dowdle was a monster as the starter in two incredible matchups against the Dolphins and Cowboys, but for some reason, they went back to Chuba Hubbard for two straight weeks

Then last week, Dowdle got the opportunity to regain his lead back duties and BAM, he rips off 130 yards and a touchdown for Carolina in their upset of the Packers. He handled 25 carries in that game and no longer has to worry about Hubbard eating into his opportunities.

So now we are looking at a situation where Dowdle, who has been cleared to go Sunday after showing up on the injury report earlier this week, is actually projecting as one of the most highly-rostered backs on both sites.

Let me tell you right now, I am going to EAT THAT CHALK. The Panthers are home favorites here and facing a New Orleans team that has to be in the conversation as one of the worst teams in football. The Saints' offense stinks and struggles to move the football, putting their defense (which grades out as fairly average) on the field for far too many snaps.

Carolina is going to feed Dowdle this week and lean on their ninth-ranked run offense. I think they could win this one going away, and I'm building lineups and making my bets accordingly. With the Panthers' defense also looking like a chalky option on FanDuel, you may as well correlate the two plays and click Dowdle and the defense together for a very strong combo.

Kyle Monangai ($5,600 DK, $6,500 FD)

Chicago Bears vs. New York Giants

We don't yet know the status of D'Andre Swift for tomorrow's matchup with the Giants, but we can't ignore what the rookie Monangai did last week against the Bengals (we featured him here) and the excellent matchup that the Bears' running game has against New York this week.

For the second straight week, the Bears have the best matchup rating as they get a Giants run defense that ranks dead last (32) and has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Swift's status will be key to monitor, but even if he does play, I would expect Monangai to get a decent chunk of the touches this week. The rookie has certainly earned more opportunities with his strong performance so far this season. Both players are cheap enough to warrant consideration in tournaments, but Monangai's cheaper price tag makes him a bit more appealing.

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