MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (9/24/2025)

September 24, 2025

Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/24/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Ivan Herrera, Jarren Duran, and Teoscar Hernandez.

The MLB regular season is winding down, but our quest for finding home runs nightly continues on! Here at RotoBaller, we're going to keep hunting for dingers through the end of the season, and we just might keep it going through the playoffs - why not?

I have four home run props I am excited about today, and some excellent odds for each hitter. If we hit on even one of these spots today, we should come out ahead! Each of our hitters today has been vetted in a strict process where I consider platoon splits, weather, park factors, pitch mix matchups, and recent form.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Wednesday, September 24, 2025. Odds for each pick are from Fanduel or DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/24/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Wednesday, September 24:

• Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox
• Teoscar Hernandez, Los Angeles Dodgers
• Ivan Herrera, St. Louis Cardinals
• Zach Cole, Houston Astros

Jarren Duran OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+460 FanDuel)

We kick things off with a hitter who is known more for his speed than his power. Duran has 16 home runs this season in 600+ at-bats, with 13 of those coming against right-handed pitchers. When I pulled up the profiles for the Boston batters today, I thought I would likely end up with someone like Wilyer Abreu or even Nathaniel Lowe. However, it was Duran's profile against Max Scherzer that impressed me the most.

Let's talk about Scherzer for a minute first. If you have been reading my HR articles at all this season, you'll already know that I have been picking on Mad Max with lefties quite often. That's been for good reason, as Scherzer has allowed 12 home runs to lefties in just 189 plate appearances. LHH has a .540 SLG, .284 ISO, and a whopping 17% barrel rate against Scherzer this season.

Scherzer still leads with his four-seam fastball to lefties, throwing the pitch 47% of the time. However, his fastball isn't what it used to be. He averages just 93.8 mph on the four-seamer, making it quite average in velocity, and it's getting pummeled to the tune of a 48.7% HH%, average exit velocity of 90 mph, and 12.8% barrel%.

Mad Max is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, and his fastball is getting hit in the air the most by lefties at a 59% rate. The result is going to be a lot of home runs allowed, which is exactly what we have seen this season.

Duran hasn't faced Mad Max since the 2023 season; however, he did homer off him in three at-bats. Seven of Duran's home runs have come on four-seam fastballs from RHP, so look for him to be sitting on that pitch from Scherzer and ready to turn it around when he gets it.

Teoscar Hernandez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+540 DraftKings)

I don't think I have ever recommended Hernandez for a home run against a RHP before, but I suppose there is a first time for everything. The Dodgers face Arizona tonight, and the Diamondbacks will roll with promising young right-handed Ryne Nelson on the mound.

Nelson has had a solid season and normally wouldn't be a pitcher I would pick on, but the options today are kind of sparse, as there are a decent number of good pitchers going on this slate. Nelson has shown some sharp reverse splits this season, allowing RHH to rack up a .200 ISO, 49.6% HHR%, and 12.7% barrel%.

Those numbers aren't terrible, but they are bad enough to dig a little deeper, and when we do, we find out that Nelson is relying a bit too much on his four-seam fastball when facing righties. He's throwing it over 60% of the time, with his slider being his secondary offering at 20% usage. So hitters can look fastball/slider against Nelson and expect to be right over 80% of the time.

Teoscar Hernandez is one of nine players (teammate Shohei Ohtani being one of them) with at least 25 home runs in every season since 2021.pic.twitter.com/N3BBOSprpv

— Dodgers Tailgate (@DodgersTailgate) September 24, 2025

That's why I like Hernandez. Despite his reputation as a lefty-killer, he has 15 home runs against RHP this season. Nine of those have come off four-seamers or sliders, with the other six coming against curveballs and cutters (the last two pitches in Nelson's arsenal).

Hernandez has been heating up lately. He homered last night to give him three long balls over his last 12 games. It's a sneaky good matchup for hi,m and we are getting much better odds on him tonight against a RHP than we would against a lefty, where we usually see him closer to +300.

Ivan Herrera OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+830 FanDuel)

How can a player who has homered in three straight games have odds over +800 tonight? What if I told you that this player has elite splits against the handedness of the pitcher he is facing, too?

That's exactly the situation with Herrera, who is facing the left-handed veteran Robbie Ray tonight. Ray has had a nice season for the Giants, but is still a relatively HR-prone pitcher as he's allowed 18 long balls to right-handed hitters this season and a 47% HH%.

#STLCards DH Iván Herrera just drilled his 19th home run of the season -- and his eighth of September -- to pull them within 8-6 of the #SFGiants. Herrera has now hit a HR in three straight games. This one traveled 400 feet and left the bat at 101.8 mph. pic.twitter.com/giwYZTwe1J

— John Denton (@JohnDenton555) September 24, 2025

Enter Herrera, who has some of the best splits in the league (let alone among catchers) against left-handed pitching. He's hitting .330 with a .670 SLG, 50.6% HH%, and an incredible 21.6% barrel rate against LHP this season.

He will be facing Ray for the first time in his young career, but I love this matchup for him based on the batted ball profile. Ray's top two pitches to righties are his four-seamer and slider, and Herrera hits both well. When players can tee off on fastballs, it's fairly common. But when we see a secondary pitch line up as well as this matchup does with Ray's slider, it gives me a lot of optimism. Herrera has a .909 SLG and .636 ISO against sliders from lefties this season!

Zach Cole OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+442 DraftKings)

How many of you know who Zach Cole even is? Be honest with me!

Cole has made a big impression in Houston since being called up earlier this month. He has three home runs in his first 30 at-bats, including an impressive one on his very first swing at the big league level!

1 pitch, 1 home run!

Zach Cole just homered on the first MLB pitch he saw 😱 pic.twitter.com/Ot4dsScs9O

— MLB (@MLB) September 12, 2025

The lefty had 19 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A this season before getting the call-up to the Astros a few weeks ago. He's racked up his share of strikeouts early (pretty common for young hitters), but has shown some impressive power at the same time.

It looked like we were going to get J.T. Ginn for the Athletics tonight, but now it appears they will go with Luis Severino. I'd rather pick on Ginn, but Sevvy has had his share of issues pitching at home this season, too. This ballpark is fantastic for home runs, as we know, and it appears that the wind should be blowing out tonight, too.

The bookmakers apparently know about Cole's power. I was expecting him to be +500 or higher. He's my longshot play of the night, but it's as good a spot as any lefty could be in tonight in terms of park factor.

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