MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (9/10/2025)

September 10, 2025

Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (9/10/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Colby Thomas, Corbin Carroll, Matt Olson, Addison Barger, Jorge Polanco and Junior Caminero.

Yesterday, I wrote the main MLB DFS article here at the site, but I must have been channeling my home run mojo because I got long balls from both Josh Lowe and George Springer for my lineups. It's too bad my pitching didn't cooperate, but that's the challenge of DFS - you have to get everything right. For home run props, we just have to be right about one thing and can win our bet with just one swing of the bat.

I must be feeling good today, because I have settled on six different home run props! I am not saying you should bet on all six, and I usually only bet three or four per night. However, people love options, and I figure more options are better than fewer, right?

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Wednesday, September 10, 2025. Odds for each pick are from Fanduel or DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (9/10/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Wednesday, September 10:

• Colby Thomas, Athletics
• Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
• Addison Barger, Toronto Blue Jays
• Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
• Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (still waiting to see who is pitching for Chicago)
• Jorge Polanco, Seattle Mariners

Colby Thomas OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+509 DraftKings)

We have a perfect recipe for a home run in one of the early games today. Boston rookie lefty Payton Tolle has allowed 2.16 HR/9 through his first two starts and a ton of fly balls with only a 22% GB%. Tolle is leading with his fastball 56% of the time to lefties, and the pitch is getting crushed when hitters make contact (.524 SLG%, .333 ISO).

Colby Thomas vs. LHP

11 for 37
2 doubles
5 HR
.297/.372/.757

OPS 1.129

the A’s are set to face 5 lefty starters in the next 7 days.pic.twitter.com/2VtxUzJ1DU

— BK (@athleticBsK) September 7, 2025

Enter Thomas, who has been crushing lefties this season and has a .304 AVG, .826 SLG, and .522 ISO against four-seamers. He also has a 57.9% fly ball rate on four-seamers, nearly guaranteeing that he's going to be able to elevate Tolle's fastball, which is already highly elevatable.

With the wind blowing out at Sutter Health Park, we should see some long balls today.

Corbin Carroll OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+290 DraftKings)

We have more favorable hitting conditions in California with the winds blowing out at Oracle Park in San Francisco. This park is built to handle the wind, but we could see gusts up to 10-12 mph throughout today's game, giving hitters who can get the ball into the air an advantage.

Enter Carroll, who is having his best power-hitting season of his career with 30 home runs and a career-high 46.5% FB%. Caroll has been demolishing RHP this year to the tune of a .595 SLG and 20.1% Barrel%.

The matchup here is about as good as it gets, as the Giants righty Carson Seymour has allowed a .510 SLG and 22.2% barrel% this season and a whopping 28.9% HH%. Seymour is a converted reliever who is making just his third start, so we should get two (maybe three) at-bats for Caroll against the young RHP.

Addison Barger OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+462 DraftKings)

Another pitcher with terrible splits against lefties today is Houston RHP Jason Alexander. In nine starts this season, the Astros pitcher has allowed a .542 SLG, .260 ISO, and 58% HH%.

That forced me to dig into the two elite power bats in the Toronto lineup - Daulton Varsho and Addison Barger. While Varsho has an elite 25% barrel% against righties, he also whiffs 32% of the time, and he didn't match up quite as well with Alexander's arsenal as this year's big breakout hitter, Addison Barger.

Alexander throws changeups and sinkers to lefties about 70% of the time, with his sweeper being his main breaking pitch to lefties. Barger has a .265 ISO vs. the changeup, a .252 ISO against the sinker, and a .500 ISO against the sweeper. Barger's top three barrel rates are against these three pitches (25% vs. the sinker and sweeper, 18% vs. the changeup).

I love Barger's odds based on this pitch mix profile, but I won't be surprised if Varsho tags one instead (considering this has happened to me multiple times this season, where I get down to two hitters and end up choosing the wrong one).

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Matt Olson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+382 DraftKings)

I have had some good luck with Olson lately, correctly identifying his last two home runs. Today, I am digging into his past performances against Chicago starter Jameson Taillon a bit more than I usually do as Olson has a prolific past against him.

Olson has yet to face Taillon this season, but going back to 2021, he has faced him eight times, collecting four hits - two of which were home runs. The other two hits (a double and a single) were both hit extremely hard, too, proving that Olson is pretty dialed into Taillon's pitch mix.

Matt Olson has tied Ryan Klesko for the 20th-most home runs (139) in Braves franchise history 👏🏼pic.twitter.com/GkgRtVPvXX

— Kevin Keneely (@KevinKeneely1) September 7, 2025

Now, Taillon has been a bit better against lefties this season, but his four-seamer still gets hit incredibly hard by them. That's the pitch that Olson will be looking for and the pitch that he's been able to turn around and drive for power this season and throughout his career.

Olson's in good form lately, and based on his history against Taillon, I like his chances of taking him deep. These are some nice odds for a power hitter like Olson in a ballpark that plays well for left-handed homers.

Jorge Polanco OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+520 FanDuel)

Polanco has been swinging a hot bat for Seattle as he's riding a seven-game hitting streak with three doubles and two home runs in that stretch. He's slid up to the five hole in the order and is looking more like the hitter who was nearly unstoppable back in April and May than the guy who slumped for a long stretch during the middle of the season.

As a switch-hitter, Polanco will slide over to the left side of the plate, where he has hit 20 of his 24 home runs this season. His opponent on the mound today is right-handed Michael McGreevy, who has some dramatic splits this season. McGreevy is allowing a .538 SLG%, 13.2% Barrel%, and 44% HH% to lefties this season.

McGreevy is fastball and cutter-heavy to lefties, which bodes well for Polanco as he's hit nine homers off right-handed fastballs and has an elite 25% barrel% against the cutter.

Editor's Note: I had originally planned on writing up Junior Caminero, too, but the White Sox have not announced a starting pitcher yet, and I'll just hold off for now until we know who is pitching for sure.

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