Was J.J. McCarthy's Performance Legit or a Fluke? Fantasy Football Outlook For Week 2 (2025)

September 10, 2025

John breaks down the fantasy football breakout performance of Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy. Should we buy or sell J.J. McCarthy heading into Week 2?

Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy finally got his first start in the NFL after missing his entire rookie season in 2024 due to a knee injury he sustained in the preseason. Quarterback Sam Darnold played the entire season as the starter for the Vikings that year while McCarthy recovered from his injury.

On Monday Night Football, the Michigan product finally took the field in a thrilling comeback win against the Chicago Bears, extending the long-held misery of Bears fans and injecting new hope into a Minnesota franchise that disappointed in the playoffs last season.

It's reasonable to expect players who have never played in the NFL to have rocky starts in their first game. Some of them have entirely rocky first seasons, though, and some of them never take the steps to becoming good NFL players. So was McCarthy's breakout really a fake-out? Let's dive in!

How Did J.J. McCarthy Play In Week 1?

For much of the game, McCarthy looked like an absolute deer in the headlights. He missed on a variety of throws, was sacked a few times on third downs, and generally, it looked like the entire offense was struggling massively. And much of it was McCarthy's fault.

Every drop back from JJ McCarthy's debut

First half was a rollercoaster.
Second half shows you why they're so high on him#Skol pic.twitter.com/GRURzD1U99

— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) September 9, 2025

You can watch every one of his dropbacks here if you want to. McCarthy took two sacks on third down on his first three drives. Some of that could be put on the offensive line, but it's likely that he had some rust to shake off. The team did have a key offensive lineman missing, as well as wide receiver Jordan Addison, though.

On the next drive, McCarthy threw a deep pass to running back Aaron Jones Sr. that drew a pass interference penalty. But he fizzled yet again, and the Vikings were forced to kick a field goal. The next three drives totaled just 29 yards, though.

JJ McCarthy really led to us 4th Quarter Comeback win on the road in prime time for his first start. pic.twitter.com/mdixVDm8BS

— MNMuse (@_MNMuse) September 9, 2025

The worst play was the first one in the above clip, where McCarthy threw an interception to the Bears that was returned for a touchdown. The next drive fizzled, too, when McCarthy failed to complete more than two yards' worth of passes before the team punted again.

But in the fourth quarter, he led the Vikings to three straight touchdowns, one on a pass to Justin Jefferson, one on a pass to Jones, and one that he ran in himself, to lead the comeback win and rack up 23.2 PPR fantasy points in leagues with standard scoring settings.

McCarthy's fourth quarter was absolutely massive and shows amazing potential.

Was McCarthy's Performance Legit Or A Fluke?

To answer this, you first have to consider McCarthy's history as a quarterback. He didn't have a ton of reps in college. He operated in an extremely run-heavy offense at Michigan that often restricted his pass attempts to lower numbers than most other NFL QBs had in college.

He's also just 22 years old, having entered the NFL at 21, and missed his first season entirely. It had been nearly two years since McCarthy had played a single snap of regular or postseason football -- January 8, 2024, when he won the NCAA Football National Championship with the Wolverines.

So it's understandable that he had such a rusty start. There was a lot put on his shoulders, and as one of the least-experienced rookies in terms of pass attempt reps in college, his slow start wasn't totally unprecedented. But he showed an excellent grasp of his game, despite all those things working against him.

JJ MCCARTHY TO Adam Thielen FOR THE TWO POINT CONVERSION #skol pic.twitter.com/kAziDpCKkO

— SuperHawkeyeFan (@superhawkeyefan) September 9, 2025

He made quick, decisive reads and fired accurate missiles to his receivers when he saw openings. He also leveraged his athleticism to pick up rushing yards and try to evade pressure, even when things didn't work out perfectly. There were plays where he didn't have other options.

And as was the case in college, McCarthy maneuvered the pocket very well and made great anticipatory throws, even when under pressure. It was incredibly promising, and nothing about his comeback performance screams "fluke" -- these are replicable, important traits to have for a signal-caller.

I knew this was impressive mid-game, but my goodness.

The pocket movement, the anticipation, the tight window throw.

Absolute money from JJ McCarthy.

pic.twitter.com/ouXCQQW9sG

— Matt Anderson (@MattAnderson_8) September 9, 2025

Keep in mind that McCarthy did this without his starting left tackle, Christian Darrisaw (knee), and his WR2, the aforementioned Addison. When both those players return, he'll have better pass-protection and an even better receiving corps, which should help him even more.

He's in an elite offensive environment and showed some of his excellent rushing prowess, so it's clear, at least according to my analysis, that he is set up for long-term, consistent success this season. He also clearly flashed the talent he needs to take advantage of that and have a big year.

J.J. McCarthy Fantasy Football Outlook For 2025

It's only been one game, but he actually was one of the best QBs from a fantasy perspective in the NFL in Week 1. He finished the game averaging 0.97 fantasy points per dropback, which was good for third in the NFL, behind only Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields. It's little surprise that three mobile QBs are at the top of those rankings.

J.J. McCarthy finished the week 3rd in fantasy points per dropback with 0.97, behind only Justin Fields and Lamar Jackson, per @FantasyPtsData. McCarthy's rushing upside is real, and it shows up in the numbers.

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) September 9, 2025

McCarthy showcased his fantastic rushing ability on an 11-yard carry and his 14-yard touchdown rush. While he hasn't run an officially timed 40-yard dash, he supposedly ran in the 4.48 range at some point before entering the NFL. That would give him speed that few other signal-callers possess.

One last reminder: J.J. McCarthy has elite rushing UPSIDE. In the best case scenario, he runs a lot and racks up huge points. His mobility also helps him extend plays. Still a huge fantasy steal in an elite offensive environment for a QB in the Vikings.https://t.co/Q3UHbbzI9w

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) August 23, 2025

I highlighted McCarthy's rushing prowess several times in the offseason. There's plenty of film from his college days to back this up, too, as you can see in the above clip, where he outruns running back Blake Corum at full speed. Corum ran a 4.54-second 40-yard dash.

So the evidence we have backs up this claim, and now we've seen it in a regular-season game. It appears that Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell is willing to let McCarthy show off his wheels, too, and that's massive for fantasy football value. Rushing quarterbacks are a cheat code for fantasy production.

The Minnesota Vikings offensive line finished 2nd in the league in Pass Block Win Rate. Better than the Ravens, Bills, Buccaneers and Eagles.

I'm not saying the Vikings have a better OL than the Eagles, but the argument that the Vikes OL wasn't good is garbage.

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) September 1, 2025

O'Connell is a revered offensive-minded coach. The Vikings have one of the league's best pass-protecting offensive lines when healthy. And the group of pass-catchers McCarthy has, including Jefferson, Addison, tight end T.J. Hockenson, and WR Thielen, is arguably the best in the league when all are on the field.

So McCarthy can comfortably be projected to finish as a top-10 fantasy QB this season, with top-5 upside buoyed by his rushing ability, despite his inexperience. He should be a priority waiver wire pickup in all fantasy leagues where he wasn't drafted.

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