MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (8/30/2025)

August 30, 2025

Zach Thompson's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/30/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Brandon Lowe, Roman Anthony, Brenton Doyle, and Joc Pederson.

Major League Baseball plans to have all 30 teams in action on this final Saturday of August, with four games in the afternoon and 11 under the lights. Several of the most homer-friendly environments in baseball are on the board, and some juicy matchups against homer-prone pitchers are also in play. With so much baseball spread throughout the day, plenty of home run props make sense to consider, so let's take a look at some of the top matchups to help you build a solid betting card for Saturday.

When finding the best home run props to target, several key factors are worth considering, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, BvP history, weather conditions, and park factors. It's also important to consider the pricing of the betting odds. In this article, we're looking for some home run bets that provide as much value as possible. Since I typically play these picks in a round robin format with a small unit size, I try to avoid obvious plays with short odds. Selecting a couple of value home run props gives your round robin or parlay an extremely high ceiling.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Saturday, August 30, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary greatly from one sportsbook to another.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/30/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Saturday, August 30:

• Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
• Roman Anthony, Boston Red Sox
• Brenton Doyle, Colorado Rockies
• Joc Pederson, Texas Rangers

Brandon Lowe OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+290 - DraftKings)

In the afternoon, the obvious pitcher to target is the Nationals' Jake Irvin, who leads the majors with 29 home runs allowed this season in his 27 starts. He and the Nationals host the Rays on Saturday afternoon, which sets up Lowe to continue his impressive season.

The 30-year-old lefty has already smashed 26 homers in his 110 games this year, the second-most he has had in any season in his career. He's gone yard in each of his last two games and has eight homers in his last 20 contests. He has nine barrels in those 20 games for a 16.4% barrel rate, which is an improvement over his 13.1% barrel rate on the season, and significantly higher than the league average of six to nine percent.

The Maryland alum looked right at home in his return to the DMV area on Friday:

Brandon Lowe's 27th homer of the year gives the Rays an early lead 🚀 pic.twitter.com/geWtQJGhWC

— MLB (@MLB) August 29, 2025

Lefties like Lowe have hit 18 of the 29 homers that Irvin has allowed this season and have a .377 wOBA against him. While Irvin didn't give up a home run in his last outing, he has given up seven homers in his last six games with a 7.85 ERA and 6.50 FIP. Over those six starts, opponents have a 49.5% hard-hit rate against Irvin.

Lowe has hit 23 of his 27 homers against righties and 14 of his 27 homers on the road. He has better contact metrics on today's side of both of those splits, so everything's lined up for him to stay hot in this juicy matchup with Irvin on Saturday.

Roman Anthony OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 - DraftKings)

Anthony had some of the best batted ball metrics in the minor leagues before getting his much-anticipated promotion earlier this season. The top prospect has delivered at the major league level as well, and his home run props come at a great value against the Pirates on Saturday afternoon.

In his 67 games in the majors, Anthony has eight homers, including four home runs in his last nine games while hitting .361 with a .464 wOBA and a 69.6% hard-hit rate.

On Friday night, he went yard against Paul Skenes as he continues to impress at just 21 years old.

Roman Anthony DESTROYS a home run off of Paul Skenes 😮 pic.twitter.com/WkyKHlngCJ

— MLB (@MLB) August 30, 2025

Anthony has an average exit velocity of 94.4 miles per hour since arriving in the majors, with a 59.4% hard-hit rate and 15.8% barrel rate. He ranks fifth in all of baseball with that average exit velocity, and second behind only Kyle Schwarber in hard-hit rate. He's crushing just about everything and posting plenty of power production after his adjustment to the majors.

He's taking on Pirates starter Johan Oviedo at Fenway on Saturday afternoon. Oviedo has pitched just 10 innings this season but has been effective with a 3.60 ERA, 3.42 FIP, and just one homer allowed. In his eight minor league starts, he allowed three homers in 26 innings while rehabbing after Tommy John surgery and a lat injury that shelved him for a few months. The Pirates have been managing his workload carefully, which could mean Anthony gets more at-bats against the shaky Pirates bullpen, depending on how his start goes.

Picking Anthony's home run props on Saturday is not quite as much about the specific matchup as it is about the value he brings at this number, given his impressive recent form. I think he'll be able to stay hot against the Pirates at Fenway and continue to establish himself as one of the top young hitters in the majors.

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Brenton Doyle OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550 - DraftKings)

Coors Field is in play on Saturday night, and the Cubs' home run props are all adjusted radically shorter to compensate for the elevation. Doyle's home run props are still loaded with value, though, coming in at over +500 on DraftKings Sportsbook coming into the day.

Doyle had a rough middle section of the season, but the 27-year-old righty has found a much better groove lately, and he's one of the key bats in the middle of the Rockies' lineup. After hitting only .151 in June with only a single homer, Doyle started to gather momentum in July and really took off in August.

In his 25 games this month, he's hitting .356 with seven homers and a .449 wOBA along with a 15.7% barrel rate and 50% hard-hit rate. Not surprisingly, most of Doyle's power production this season has been at Coors Field, where he has hit 10 of his 14 homers and has a .329 batting average to go with a .394 wOBA.

Brenton Doyle, last 26 games...

95 PA, .404/.426/.685, 4 2B, 7 HR, 4 SB#Rockiespic.twitter.com/IqdMQcuxNO

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) August 24, 2025

He didn't homer in the series opener on Friday, but did pick up a pair of well-hit doubles and a pair of walks.

On Saturday night, Doyle will take on starting pitcher Javier Assad. Assad has been limited to three starts this year after suffering an oblique strain in February and experiencing a setback while on a rehab assignment in April. He has bounced back and forth to the minors several times since getting healthy and has a 3.86 ERA and 4.98 FIP in his 14 innings.

Assad has allowed two homers in those 14 frames, one to righties and one to lefties. In his career, though, righties have produced more power against him, and he has especially struggled on the road.

Like with Anthony, backing Doyle this Saturday is about the value at the odds more than the matchup. Even though this is a pretty neutral matchup, based on how hot he has been lately, getting Doyle at Coors Field at this price feels like an excellent value play Saturday night.

Joc Pederson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+275 - DraftKings)

With cooler weather starting to settle in across the country, Sacramento's hot weather and homer-friendly breezes will make Sutter Health Park stand out as a great environment for home run props the rest of the season. In Sacramento on Saturday night, the Athletics will give the ball to Mason Barnett for his major league debut, setting up the Rangers in a good spot to deliver some power.

The 24-year-old righty put together a 5.83 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, and allowed 17 homers in 23 starts, spanning 117 1/3 innings for the Las Vegas Aviators. Lefties hit over half of those homers in fewer than half the plate appearances against him, and he gave up four homers in his last six starts, with an 8.07 ERA and 4.93 FIP. He had a 41.3% hard-hit rate against him on the year.

There are several Rangers out with injuries who would be the usual targets in this kind of matchup, but of the options available, Pederson is a solid play since he brings solid form and good upside, even though his season-long numbers are still very underwhelming. This season, the veteran lefty is hitting only .171 with a .275 wOBA and seven home runs.

In August, though, he has been much more effective, hitting .283 with five homers, a .390 wOBA, and a 60% hard-hit rate. Pederson was part of the Rangers' 20-run performance on Wednesday before getting Friday's series opener off against a lefty.

Joc Pederson belts a 3-run homer and the @Rangers have put up 7️⃣ through 2 innings! pic.twitter.com/LrQ5bkFnaU

— MLB (@MLB) August 28, 2025

He should be back in the lineup on Saturday and will look to continue his strong month of contributions as the Rangers try to hang in the American League Wild Card race. His value isn't quite as high as the other options in this post, but he's in a great home run environment with a favorable matchup and enough momentum to make him a strong play this Saturday night.

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