Running Back Matchups to Target in Week 1 (2025) - James Conner, Chuba Hubbard, Bucky Irving, more

September 7, 2025

Thunder Dan's favorite RB matchups to exploit for Week 1 of 2025 - DFS running backs to target on DraftKings and FanDuel. These RB matchups are GPP and cash game opportunities.

Every week of the NFL season, we have to weigh the opportunities that we project for each running back against the quality of the opposing run defense. There are only a handful of backs that are guaranteed so many touches that we can look past their matchup and plug them into lineups without hesitation (the Saquon Barkleys and Bijan Robinson types).

But most NFL running backs are much more matchup-dependent, and in the DFS/betting space, we love evaluating weekly matchups to find the optimal plays or wagers.

My goal in this article will be to highlight the absolute best matchups for running backs on Sunday, with a primary focus on DFS. However, these are also running backs that you should smash into your season-long lineups and great candidates for prop bets, too.

Week 1 Rushing Matchups

I pulled together some matchup ratings using several sources. The overall DVOA run matchup takes into account the running backs, while the DVOA offensive line matchup is based solely on "adjusted line yards," a metric that attempts to remove the impact of the back (breaking tackles, juking defenders, etc) out of the equation.

I also used Pro Football Focus's rushing offense and defensive metrics to formulate the third rating, while using their run-blocking grade verbatim. While I am not sure any single metric can prove to be predictive, I think that looking at all to see what general trends emerge could certainly start pointing us in the right direction.

Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,700 DK, $8,700 FD)

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers

Gibbs finished the regular season by going gangbusters in the final three games with an average of 162 yards from scrimmage. Monty is back in the mix for touches, but the word out of Detroit is that the new offensive coordinator, John Morton, wants to feature Gibbs more and make sure he's a big part of the passing game.

The Lions' offensive line boasted the third-best run-blocking grade last season, and we have slightly favorable matchup grades across the rest of the board for Detroit here against this Green Bay front. While Micah Parsons should improve their pass rush, the Pack could still have their hands full with Gibbs and company despite ranking seventh in rush defense (DVOA) last season.

Lions OC Morton on if the workload distribution between Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery will be similar to last year:

"We'll see."

— Underdog NFL (@UnderdogNFL) September 4, 2025

Gibbs is a big-play threat any time he touches the ball, and his ability to rack up yards in the open field is what is so appealing, especially this week, as the Packers allowed the third-most receptions to running backs last season.

Christian McCaffrey ($7,300 DK, $8,100 FD)

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks

The entire fantasy football community gasped when news that McCaffrey was limited at practice on Thursday with a calf injury. But there's nothing to suggest that he's in danger of missing Sunday's opener against the Seahawks...yet.

Christian McCaffrey Absence Could be Precautionary https://t.co/nmqbyAGL9o

— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) September 5, 2025

Now we are left to wonder if we will see CMC return to his former glory as one of the premier running backs in fantasy football. One thing we know for sure is that the 49ers will need him to produce if they want to move the ball on offense, and that he should be a major part of the game plan. Deebo Samuel Sr. is no longer in town to steal touches in the backfield, and Brandon Aiyuk is still on the shelf with an injury, leaving San Francisco with a pretty condensed group of offensive contributors between McCaffrey, George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, and the freshly signed Jauan Jennings.

McCaffrey played only four games last year, and it's hard to glean much from those results since the Niners' season was already pretty much in the tank. His best game of the four did come against Seattle, however, as he finished with 106 yards from scrimmage on 23 touches. The newly-acquired Brian Robinson Jr. isn't a threat to steal touches, and Isaac Guerendo was banged up much of the preseason.

McCaffrey is the only running back other than Alvin Kamara with a receptions prop O/U of 4.5 catches this week. If we expect him to handle 15+ carries and another 4-5 receptions (as well as goalline work), he's going to provide a very high floor, especially on DraftKings in their PPR format.

Just for fun, CMC has dominated the Seahawks in their last five meetings, going back to 2022.

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Bucky Irving ($7,100 DK, $7,700 FD)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons

I have been touting Bucky for season-long leagues, so it's going to be hard for me not to smash his button in DFS contests this week when we have a 46.5-point total in this matchup with Atlanta and some shootout potential.

It's pretty much green across the board for Bucky and the Bucs on our chart, though I should note that their best lineman, Tristan Wirfs, has already been ruled out for Sunday's game.

Still, the Falcons' run defense ranked just 24th (DVOA) last season, and Bucky projects for a bigger workload this season than in his rookie campaign when Tampa eased him into action. By the end of last year, Irving had usurped a 60-70% snap share, and his effectiveness as a pass-catcher had even eaten into Rachaad White's playing time and touches.

It's a fair price on Irving, who finished the 2024 season as a near must-play in good spots. Don't forget some Bucky exposure in your builds!

James Conner ($6,100 DK, $7,500 FD)

Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints

Conner has my vote for the best matchup on the board this week. Not only is he going to be touting the rock for a solid touchdown favorite, but he's facing a Saints run defense that was shredded by opposing backs in 2024.

New Orleans finished last season ranked 30th in rush defense (DVOA) and should struggle trying to slow down Conner and his physical running style.

Conner is the best of both worlds for fantasy purposes in that he should get the goalline work as the top short-yardage back while also racking up some catches as a receiver. His versatility is almost always overlooked simply because his game is not flashy and he's been playing in the desert on some mediocre football teams for the last four years.

If the Cardinals' offense breaks out in Week 1 like many think it can, then we could see them score a bunch of points in this one and create multiple scoring opportunities for Conner. At his price, he's my favorite back on a point-per-dollar basis.

Chuba Hubbard ($6,000 DK, $6,500 FD)

Carolina Panthers @ Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a game that I want to heavily target in DFS on Sunday. Both Carolina's and Jacksonville's defenses were abysmal last season, and both struggled to stop the run. The overall matchup ratings favor the Jags here, but they also have the most questions in their backfield about who will get the carries with a potential three-headed committee of Travis Etienne Jr., Bhayshul Tuten, and Tank Bigsby all potentially splitting touches.

We know who Carolina will feed the rock on early downs and around the goalline - Hubbard. After outperforming expectations in 2024 again, Hubbard is set to reprise his role as the lead back with only Rico Dowdle to compete for touches in mostly a third-down and passing situational role.

With the Jags ranking 25th in rush defense last season and the potential for the Carolina offense to be an improved unit in 2025, I like Hubbard's chances of making value on his cheap salary with a solid day of running the football and a decent probability of finding the end zone (the Jags also allowed the 6th-most rushing touchdowns to opposing backs).

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