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Andy's dynasty fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers, and risers to target for 2025. He uses advanced sabermetrics to analyze Ivan Herrera, Dylan Beavers, Carson Williams, and more.
During the first half of the fantasy baseball season, we have seen many stars emerge throughout all levels of the sport. In the major league, Nick Kurtz has become a bona fide top-3 dynasty first baseman, while Jacob Misiorowski has looked like a budding ace in Milwaukee.
In this piece, we will look at a few under-the-radar breakout candidates from the first half (in both the majors and minor leagues) and determine their rest of season outlook, and more importantly, their long-term outlook for dynasty leagues.
Should fantasy managers buy these players before their fantasy stock continues to soar? Let's dive in!
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Note - All Advanced Statistics are Updated as of Wednesday, August 14
Ivan Herrera, C/DH, St. Louis Cardinals
2025 Stats - 68 G, .294/.371/.457, 10 2B, 10 HR, 5 SB
I was quite bullish on Ivan Herrera in the pre-draft process for redraft leagues, and the 25-year-old has lived up to his expectations. Through 67 games, Herrera has held a strong .295 AVG with a .461 SLG and a .834 OPS. He has gone deep 10 times, added 10 doubles, and even swiped four bags.
In terms of counting stats, Herrera scored 29 runs and led an impressive 42 RBI in a small sample.
He flashed similar upside during the 2024 campaign when he held a .301/.372/.428 line with 12 doubles and five home runs across 72 games.
Iván Herrera over a healthy 2026 season is going to be must watch baseball.
The 25-year-old now has 10 HR and a 149 wRC+ over 248 PA this season.#ForTheLou
— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) August 5, 2025
Although he has missed time due to injuries, when active, he has been very productive in terms of fantasy. Should dyasnty managers be looking to buy Herrera before his price rises even further?
Currently, Herrera holds a .360 xwOBA, .275 xBA, and a .474 xSLG, which place him in the 82nd, 78th, and 73rd percentile, respectively, among qualified hitters. While the 26-year-old has only made 14 starts behind the dish and has typically been shifted to the DH spot, he has provided fantasy managers with elite hitting production at a surprisingly deep catcher position this season.
When looking at his profile, Herrera's underlying metrics do not suggest significant regression is coming. He has hit fastballs at a solid .329 BA and a .387 wOBA, which is relatively similar to the .290 xBA and the .366 xwOBA under the hood. While his underlying numbers are lower, they are still very strong and suggest he should not see much of a dip in base production.
In terms of breaking balls, Herrera could actually see a very slight increase, evident in the .374 wOBA and the .383 xwOBA. However, offspeed pitches have been his weakness this season as he has generated a low .196 xwOBA (.088 wOBA).
His overall xwOBA has decreased sharply when facing breaking balls this season. Seeing him remain just as productive against the other two pitches is a good sign.
Despite this weakness, Herrera has continued to hit the ball harder, which has helped offset his struggle to hit offspeed pitches. As shown below, his hard-hitting rate amongst all three pitch types has increased this season, in relation to 2024.
In addition, while hitting the ball harder, Herrera is also whiffing at fewer pitches within the zone (offspeed and fastballs), which is another strong indicator that his breakout is legit.
Given that he sits well above average in several marks and is hitting the ball harder and whiffing less in the zone, many managers should feel comfortable targeting Herrera on the trade market. However, keep a close eye on his games played behind the dish., While most formats require only 10 games (which will keep his catcher eligibility for 2026), some formats may require 20, which could make him a utility-only player.
He will continue to be a locked-in top-10 catcher with upside as we enter the final stretch of the season.
Carson Williams, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
2025 Stats - 105 G, .214/.315/.438, 12 2B, 21 HR, 21 SB
Let's take a stop at Triple-A to check in on the top prospect in the Tampa Bay system. Carson Williams was selected with the 28th overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft out of Torrey Pines HS. Williams spent his entire 2024 season at Double-A, where he held a .256/.352/.469 line with 20 doubles, 20 home runs, and 33 stolen bases.
This strong play earned him a ticket to Triple-A to open the 2025 season. However, the infielder got off to a rough start, posting a low .202/.308/.395 line with 10 home runs over 67 games. During this stretch, he held a high 35.0% K rate. However, as he grew accustomed to Triple-A pitching, he began to show some progression.
Over his last 11 games, Williams has posted a .263/.364/.579 line with four home runs and two stolen bases.
Carson Williams is hitting .263 so far in August with a .943 OPS & 4 HR
He’s EN FUEGO
— Rays The Roof (@RaysTheRoofTB) August 14, 2025
Is Williams taking the proper steps at Triple-A?
Comparing his numbers to his production at Double-A last summer, it appears Williams has gotten a bit unlucky, at least during the first half of the season. He has generated a .218 ISO, which is six points higher than his mark last season. In addition, his ground-ball rate has only increased by 0.4% (35.6% - 36.0%), and his fly-ball rate decreased by 0.2% (38.1% - 37.9%) despite facing much tougher pitching.
The infielder is pulling the ball more, as shown by its 49.5% pull rate, a six-point jump from last summer.
However, the shortstop still has some glaring concerns in his profile. His strikeout rate this season has jumped up to an ugly 34.4%, which is much higher than the 28.3% he held last season. Despite this jump, he has still drawn walks at a solid 11.6% rate, which is on pace to be the highest mark of his career in the upper minor leagues.
On the defensive side of the game, MLB.com gave him a 70 scouting grade in both fielding and arm, which should provide him plenty of leeway when he does get the call to Tampa if his bat takes some time adjusting. While his power production appears to be legit and he could possess 20+ HR upside at the shortstop position, his hefty strikeout rate could make him tough to trust at times in points leagues.
If he can continue this second-half surge, he could be an intriguing name to acquire before his eventual MLB debut in 2026. For now, Williams is a name to keep a close eye on as he inches toward his MLB debut.
Addison Barger, 3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays
2025 Stats - 97 G, .261/.311/.499, 25 2B, 18 HR, 3 SB
Adidson Barger is enjoying a big breakout season and has played a key role in Toronto's surge in the AL East. Since May 1, Barger has posted an impressive .271/.322/.523 line with an .845 OPS, 25 doubles, and 18 home runs.
After appearing in only 69 games in his debut season in 2024 and holding a modest .601 OPS during that stretch, it appears the former sixth-round pick has taken a significant step forward. But is this production sustainable?
His Baseball Savant page is bright red as he sits significantly above the average mark in several power metrics like average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and bat speed.
His batted ball is very positive, suggesting Brger could be a rising star in the sport. He has hit fastballs at a strong .331 wOBA, which is right in line with the .347 xwOBA under the hood. He should also see some positive regression when facing offspeed pitches, as he has posted a .390 wOBA, which is much lower than the .484 xwOBA.
While he could see some regression in breaking balls (.343 wOBA, .285 xwOBA), his expected results against the other two pitch types will offset this quite nicely.
A key reason why his underlying numbers are so strong is due to his quality of contact. Barger has generated an average 13.0% barrel rate and has only induced weak contact 2.8% of the time. He has generated a low 38.6% ground-ball rate and a high 22.8% Pull-Air rate, which has led him to rack up extra-base hits (13th-most doubles in the AL).
While his profile for points league can be frustrating at times, as he strikes out at a high rate and draws walks below the average rate, his elite bat-to-ball skills make him a strong buy in all dynasty formats. He will be a foundation in the Toronto starting nine for years to come.
He will be a popular breakout candidate in redraft leagues next season. Don't wait to strike a deal to acquire him.
Yes, Addison Barger is legit. Homered for the 4th consecutive game tonight!
Since the start of May:
108 PA
.299 / 6 HR / 17 RBI / 1 SB
24 K : 10 BBBatted ball metrics all look phenomenal, he is a stud🔥
pic.twitter.com/AcrG7LckxE— Andrew DeCeglie (@Andrew_FBB) June 4, 2025
Dylan Beavers, OF, Baltimore Orioles
2025 Stats - 92 G, .300/.418/.517, 14 2B, 18 HR, 22 SB
The final player we will look at his a rising star in the Baltimore system. While Heston Kjerstad, Jackson Holliday, Samuel Basallo, and Coby Mayo have stolen most of the headlines in the system over the past two seasons, the outfielder has quietly put together strong performances in the minor leagues and is now on the verge of his MLB debut.
After spending most of the 2024 season at Double-A (outside of a brief six-game taste of Triple-A), Beavers has taken an immense step forward through his first full look at the top pitching in the minor leagues. At Double-A, Beavers generated a low .237/.399/.407 line with only 15 home runs. While he did swipe an impressive 31 bags, seeing that he has been unable to find better contact skills and power at Triple-A is a very positive sign.
A look under the hood paints a very nice picture for the current No. 5-ranked prospect in the Baltimore system.
In 2025, Beavers has posted a .218 ISO with a 153 wRC+, which are both on pace to be the highest marks of his minor league career. He has also generated an elite .417 wOBA, which is on pace to be the highest mark of his time spent in the upper minor leagues.
When comparing his production at Double-A last season, Beavers has also shown a much stronger eye at the plate. This season, he is striking out at a 17.8% clip and walking at a 16.4% rate, which are both improved compared to the 22.6% K rate and 13.2% BB rate he posted at Double-A.
In terms of batted-ball metrics, Beavers has lowered his infield fly-ball rate by an impressive 10 points this season and has only increased his ground-ball rate by 2.9% despite facing much tougher pitching.
Seeing him flash the highest power upside he ever had in his minor league career, walking at the highest rate, and striking out at the lowest are significant signs that suggest Beavers could make an impact in the major leagues. While he may be tough to acquire at the moment, given his dominance at Triple-A this season, his price could soar even higher as he adjusts to major league pitching.
Dylan Beavers has been fantastic in Triple-A for the Orioles. OPS north of 1.000 over his last 40 games with more walks than strikeouts. Homered twice last night.
Toned down the leg kick, overall moves are much more efficient and compact but still explosive through the zone. pic.twitter.com/ydzhE5ML0X
— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) July 24, 2025
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