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Should you draft Jayden Higgins or Jaylin Noel in 2025 dynasty fantasy football rookie drafts? John Johnson breaks down the landing spots, production projections, and fantasy football outlooks for Higgins and Noel.
The Houston Texans drafted wide receiver Jayden Higgins in the second round, with the 34th overall pick, and wide receiver Jaylin Noel in the third round, with the 79th overall pick. It was a bit of a surprise seeing the two receivers, both from Iowa State, go to the same team.
And immediately, for dynasty fantasy football managers, the question of which player to draft became relevant. Draft capital will play a part in this, and already, their ADPs are pretty solid reflectors of this, but value is king.
Projecting how these two will stack up over the next few seasons, what roles they could have with their new team, and evaluating their film and talents from their college days should shed some light on this situation, so let's dive in!
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The Landing Spot
Rather than break down two landing spots, we only have to go through one, because the same team drafted both players. They'll both be catching passes from C.J. Stroud. I'm not sure how much I like that, because while Stroud is accurate, his play mostly falls off a cliff when he's pressured.
He was pressured a lot last season because his team's offensive line regressed pretty hard. This is not great news for any of the team's receivers. But a change in offensive coordinator, a few reinforcements on the OL, and a much better crop of WRs could help quite a bit.
CJ Stroud EPA/dropback splits through Week 2 (via TruMedia):
Clean: .50 (2nd)
Under Pressure: -.81 (32nd)The OL is bad. Run game ranks dead last in yards before contact, and he's under pressure 42% of dropbacks. But he's managing clean pockets very well. pic.twitter.com/YLFxRU4u7o
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) September 18, 2023
The primary focus of new Texans offensive coordinator Nick Caley's challenges will be figuring out how to manage this and how to scheme up plays with easier options for Stroud to go to when he's pressured. Speaking of other receivers, the room is very crowded now.
It would have been nice if Higgins and Noel didn't have to compete with Nico Collins and Christian Kirk for playing time and targets. But that will be the reality in 2025. Longer-term, Collins should stick around, but these three should become the team's primary WRs.
Jayden Higgins Fantasy Football Outlook
Many respected fantasy football analysts, such as Matt Harmon, have indicated that Higgins isn't exactly well-suited for a prototypical "X" wide receiver role. So they view the Texans as a good landing spot for the rookie, as Collins will maintain his "X" role from last season.
Higgins will likely get plenty of playing time in Year 1, and he should move between the slot and "Z" positions. While his film is excellent, his skill set overlaps pretty heavily with that of Collins, and he was one of my pro comps for Higgins, as was the case for other fantasy analysts.
Jayden Higgins is 6’4, 220lbs and moving like this…
This angle shows his INSANE movement ability 🤯 pic.twitter.com/dfd6JKivUC
— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) January 30, 2025
Since Collins isn't going anywhere, and we know Higgins is highly talented, it will become more of a matter of how many targets he earns per game over the next few years. His biggest weakness is his ineffectiveness against press coverage at the moment.
He'll likely face easier coverage matchups than Collins and be an effective red zone weapon, but the competition will hamper his ability to rack up 1,000-yard seasons in Houston. In Year 1, he might need a bit of time to develop, but I at least expect him to finish as a WR3 with a few spike weeks with touchdowns.
Jayden Higgins put up a MONSTER 9.87 RAS, including a 4.47 40 at 6’4, 214lbs with a 39” vertical 🌪️
But how’s the tape? Well…
➖ elite separator
➖ 3% drop rate
➖ 56% contested catch rate
➖ career 3309 yards, 28 TDs
➖ willing blocker1st-rd talent. Comp is Nico Collins 👀 pic.twitter.com/Lbe2lrZHmn
— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) March 4, 2025
He might be best suited for jump balls in the intermediate portions of the field and on quick slant timing routes that could help Stroud push the ball down the field, so there's a bit of PPR upside with those slam-dunk targets, which I like. On deep vertical routes, I don't think he'll thrive.
Additionally, in the red zone and end zone, he could see a decent role that allows him to rack up at least seven touchdowns in his rookie year. Later down the road, he'll solidify the other outside WR role with Collins and flirt with more 1,000-yard seasons.
Jaylin Noel Fantasy Football Outlook
Noel, having to compete for slot snaps with Kirk right away, won't be fun. So in his rookie season, we might see Noel battling a little too much for route participation. But as he develops, his elite athleticism will be too much for Caley to ignore.
Noel is a speed demon. He ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash at the 2025 NFL Combine. Additionally, he jumped 41.5 inches in the vertical jump and bench-pressed 23 reps, the most of any WR. He can play outside and beat all types of coverages, and can haul in very tough contested catches.
Jaylin Noel had a monster combine, including a 4.39 40, 23 reps on bench, and a 41.5” vertical 👀
But how’s the tape? Well…
➖ lightning play speed
➖ legit RAC ability
➖ slippery at the top of routes
➖ some alignment versatility
➖ short area burstEasily a top 50 player. pic.twitter.com/wuc88Vg8G5
— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) March 12, 2025
Once Kirk leaves, though, which could be as soon as after the 2025 season, Noel should thrive, as long as Stroud can get his game together. Kirk is on just a one-year deal, and I'm not sure the Texans expected Noel to fall so far in the 2025 draft. To me, his fall was pretty shocking -- I fully expected him to be a second-round pick.
At that point, Noel and Higgins should split snaps between the slot and outside, with WR Tank Dell trying to work his way back in the rotation as well. However, I'm not sure if Dell will be a significant factor even when he returns. His multi-ligament knee injury was absolutely devastating, and possibly pseudo-career-ending.
This is so filthy from Jaylin Noel.
-Upright body and slow foot pace to trick defender
-Stays jogging before the catch to keep his options open after the catch
-Stops on a dime, twists fast, plants foot and rotates, puts defender in the dirt
-Re-acceleration
Elite film. pic.twitter.com/gBZ7SS3LGH— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025
Noel's talent should demand that he stay on the field pretty often. I think he has a higher ceiling than Higgins does -- he's faster, better after the catch, possibly stronger, and more fluid in his change-of-direction skills than Higgins is. The extra explosiveness helps as well.
Another consideration is that Collins has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career. In his four-season career so far, he's missed a full season's worth of games. Long-term, that will give a huge spike-week upside to Noel (and Higgins as well), who both have managed to stay mostly healthy.
WR - Jaylin Noel - @IowaStateFB
Pre-Draft Meetings:
📝Combine: @Raiders @Commanders @Seahawks @HoustonTexans🛩️Top 30 Visits @Patriots @steelers @Buccaneers @Panthers
🗳️Voted Top WR in @seniorbowl Practice: met with @49ers ,Texans, Patriots and other teams
NFL Combine… pic.twitter.com/yJNYo6thPm
— Dave Heilman NFL (@DynastyDorks) March 29, 2025
I do wish he had landed somewhere better, with less target competition, but we'll probably get a glimpse of what that could have been like in the games Collins misses. The Texans' WR1 has an extensive injury history and could re-aggravate any number of his ailments from the past.
Verdict
Value, value, value. That's all that matters. But considering I stated that I believe Noel has a higher ceiling than Higgins, it should be obvious who my choice is here. Higgins is regularly being drafted at the end of the first round to the beginning of the second round, while Noel is a very late second-rounder.
So drafting Noel seems like the better idea to me. In crowded WR rooms, it often helps to draft the cheaper player as well, especially if he's similarly talented.
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