Hitter Fantasy Baseball Breakouts - Risers to Watch and Waiver Wire Outlooks (Week 13)

June 21, 2025

Jarod's hitter fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers, and risers to watch for Week 13 of 2025. His list includes waiver wire outlooks and underachieving hitters so far.

Welcome back to my Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters article for Week 13 of the 2025 MLB season. The focus of this article is to highlight players who could be on the verge of a breakout, citing current active hitting streaks along with recent leaders in batting average and isolated power (ISO). You will also find expected batting average (xwOBA) underachievers and overachievers for the first time this season!

In this week's edition, we'll dive into players like Gunnar Henderson, J.P. Crawford, and Ben Rice. You'll not only find out who is hot at the plate, but also which hitters deserve better results based on their expected stats, or who might be on the verge of a cold spell.

Last week, Brooks Lee and Nolan Jones were a couple of good callouts who kept on hitting (or began to hit in Jones' case). So, let's take a closer look at our breakout watch to help your fantasy baseball teams heading into Week 13. You might find a potential waiver wire target or some worthy DFS plays!

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Hit Streak Leaders

Data through 6/18

Brooks Lee (17* games)

Brooks Lee was right here in last week's article, and here he is again, still hitting. He's still striking out a lot, as was mentioned last week, but it hasn't stopped him from collecting hits, even belting a pair of home runs over the last handful of games.

Brooks Lee’s hitting streak is up to 14 games.
His 6th home run of the season just tied it.
Clutch, consistent, and making it look easy.
Solid defence at three positions.
Plays like he’s been here for years.
This is what a breakout looks like.#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/zKRmv3ozq2

— Talkin' Twins (@TalkinTwins) June 14, 2025

As of last week, the former eighth-overall draft pick was slashing .256/.295/.372 with a .294 wOBA and 88 wRC+; a week later, it stands at .269/.304/.403 with a .309 wOBA and 99 wRC+.

Also, as of last week, the 24-year-old was available in nearly all leagues; that has climbed to only 15 percent rostership, so the left-handed slugger is still widely available. Combined with his eligibility at 2B, 3B, and SS, there's surely more fantasy managers out there who could use him.

(*Update: Lee went 1-for-5 on Thursday, extending his streak to 18 games)

Gunnar Henderson (12* games)

Gunnar Henderson (along with most Orioles hitters) got off to a slow start this year, batting .254 through the end of May. During that time, the 23-year-old registered a 94.1 average exit velocity (113.3 max EV), an 8.5 percent barrel rate, and a 26.9 percent strikeout rate (8.2 percent walk rate).

Since June 1, the former second-round draft pick is hitting .373, hitting safely in 14 of 15 games he's started this month and currently riding a 12-game hit streak.

Unfortunately, of his 22 hits in June, only four have gone for extra bases (three 2B, one HR), and he's only on pace for 20 home runs after blasting 37 of them last year. While that is surely disappointing for managers who spent a top-10 pick on the left-handed slugger, he's on pace to steal a few more bases than the 21 he swiped in 2024.

It would be nice to provide you with a rosy power outlook based on how well he's currently hitting, however, the 2024 All-Star is registering an 87.4 percent average EV (105.1 max EV) and 4.3 percent barrel rate so far in June, which both come in well below where he was at earlier this year.

Notably, his bat speed has increased from 75.4 mph through the end of May to 76.1 mph since June 1, and he's lowered his strikeout rate from 26.9 percent to 18.5 percent. So, that could point to more contact that might start turning into more extra-base hits.

Either way, he's hot right now, and while the former Rookie of the Year is not available on waiver wires, DFS players could include him in their builds more going forward, specifically when the O's are facing a righty (.209/.242/.275 vs. LHP compared to .320/.392/.533 vs. RHP).

(*Update: Henderson went 1-for-2 on Thursday, extending his streak to 13 games)

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

Data through 6/18, minimum 13 at-bats

Ronald Acuna Jr. has been hitting the cover off the ball since his return from the IL, a welcome sign for fantasy managers and baseball fans in general. Mike Yastrzemski is hitting well again, too, as are J.P. Crawford, Javier Baez, and Brandon Lowe -- all hitters we've outlined in this article at some point this season -- but we'll discuss someone else in this section.

Dane Myers (.529 BA)

Dane Myers was yet another player featured in this article earlier this year, but unfortunately, it seemed like just as he got rolling and became a popular waiver add, the 29-year-old suffered an oblique injury that sidelined him for almost three weeks.

Before the injury, the right-handed hitter was slashing .337/.375/.482 with three home runs and seven steals in 29 games. He was slow out of the gate upon his return from the IL, however, in his last 11 games, Myers has gone 15-for-37 (.405) with three doubles and a home run.

The reason I singled him out instead of the others? The six-foot outfielder hasn't swiped a base during that stretch and only one since returning from the IL, a stretch of 17 games. There isn't a long track record in the majors to go off of here, but he did steal 21 bases in 2022 in the minors and 20 more in 2023, so he can run.

It feels like fantasy managers could be buying low here, getting a hot hitter with stolen base upside. Myers is available in most Yahoo! leagues for the taking, and is probably rosterable in deep 12-team and NL-only formats.

(Update: Myers went 1-for-4 with a double on Thursday and scored the lone run for the Marlins)

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

Data through 6/18, minimum 13 at-bats

Mickey Moniak and Michael Toglia top this list, and while the appeal of playing in the high elevation is there, both of these streaks feel tenuous, as Moniak is a career .190 hitter against LHP, and Toglia was already demoted once this year.

Javier Baez (.611 ISO)

Baez is another player who was outlined in this article earlier this season, as he had gone on a hot stretch of hitting. Well, he's back, and possibly had been dropped in many leagues after cooling from mid-to-late May.

The 32-year-old is hitting .340 in June, and over the last five games, he's even hotter, going 9-for-18 with two doubles and three home runs, along with four RBI and seven runs scored.

JAVY BAEZ DOES IT AGAIN!

His 2nd HR of the night travels 410 FT at 102.2 MPH!pic.twitter.com/VffoVhtwpk

— Inside The Diamond (@InsideTheDiamnd) June 18, 2025

Known to be a free-swinger, the two-time All-Star owns a 2:3 K:BB over the last five games and is striking out at a 22.1 percent rate in 2025, which is on par with the league average (22.0 percent).

The former Silver Slugger award winner has authored a .289 batting average with a .798 OPS, .347 wOBA, and 126 wRC+ thus far, and is eligible at 3B, SS, and OF to boot, yet is rostered in just 35 percent of leagues.

Even if you're not interested in picking him up in season-long leagues, fire him up in DFS when facing lefties. He's destroying LHP to the tune of a .377/.406/.541 slash line compared to .253/.291/.447 against RHP.

(Update: Baez went 2-for-4 in Game 1 of the team's doubleheader on Thursday, DNP in Game 2)

Most Steals Last Seven Days

Data through 6/18

Normally, we have a handful of players with at least three steals over the last week, so this week's list doesn't look all that impressive, and the top two guys are not available on waiver wires; however, that's not so with the third player on the list.

J.P. Crawford (two SBs)

As mentioned in an earlier section, Crawford is hitting well over the last week, going 8-for-16 (.500), including one double, one home run, five RBI, four runs scored, and an impressive 2:7 K:BB. Of course, he's also stolen two bases during that time.

Dad power 😤

On his first #FathersDay since becoming a dad, J.P. Crawford launches a grand slam! pic.twitter.com/Oa0zD7HhwU

— MLB (@MLB) June 15, 2025

It may not sound like much, but he was also caught stealing once, so he nearly had three. As it stands, the 30-year-old has five on the season, and his previous career high is six, so he should easily go past that number by the end of the year.

Even if his bat goes cold, the veteran owns a 99th percentile 16.8 percent walk rate, so he should have no problem continuing to get on base, which in turn should provide plenty of opportunities to steal bases.

Seattle's shortstop is slashing .294/.416/.408  for the season and is available in over 70 percent of leagues for the taking.

xwOBA Underachiever

Data through 6/18

At the beginning of the season, this section examined hitters due for a bounceback in batting average, followed by an analysis of hitters with significant discrepancies in xSLG. This week, I'll take a look at hitters with some of the biggest differences in wOBA and xwOBA.

There is a big name right at the top of the list, and that is bad news for pitchers over the rest of the season. There are also a couple of other names at the bottom who are having solid seasons, but more could be in store in the weeks ahead.

Ben Rice (.336 vs. .401)

Ben Rice was slashing .250/.337/.522 with 12 home runs, a .370 wOBA, and 141 wRC+ through June 4; however, since then, his bat has gone cold, hitting .114 (4-for-35) with zero extra-base hits, leaving him with a .336 wOBA and 116 wRC+ for the year.

But during this downturn, Rice still has good exit velocities, including one that registered at 110.3 mph off the bat. BABIP since June 5 is .138, which is well below normal for any player, so it seems he's also been a victim of some bad luck, acknowledging that it's a small sample size.

You won't find too many cases of a hitter being less lucky than Ben Rice has been over the last three weeks.

Since May 29th:
- 56 PA
- .180 AVG (.298 xBA)
- .230 wOBA (.358 xwOBA)
- .200 BABIP pic.twitter.com/pvpFfZtwso

— Jon Anderson (@JonPgh) June 19, 2025

The Yankees clearly like what he's been doing at the plate, as, even though Giancarlo Stanton has returned from the IL recently, they've stated that the 26-year-old will start at catcher more often, in addition to getting days at DH and first base.

The left-handed slugger is not yet eligible at catcher on Yahoo!, but a few more starts there and he will be. He's also available in 65 percent of leagues, so look for signs he's about to go on a run, maybe after he goes yard again, and scoop him up for a hot-hitting stretch.

xwOBA Overachiever

Data through 6/18

Jeremy Pena (.372 vs. .337)

Earlier this season, Pena was popping up as someone due for a rebound, and then from 4/21 - 5/15 -- a stretch of 22 games -- he went 35-for-90 (.389). After cooling for a week, the 27-year-old has gotten hot again, going 36-for-95 (.379) over 23 games from 5/24 - 6/18.

So, not only has Pena rebounded, but it seems maybe he overcorrected to the other extreme. The former ALCS and World Series MVP has had productive seasons already in his young career, and it will still be a productive season even with some regression, but beware, regression could be coming.

Pena's BABIP is at the other end of the spectrum compared to the aforementioned Rice, coming in at an unsustainable .458 during the most recent hot stretch, and .361 on the year compared to a career BABIP of .316.

Some regression may already be setting in, as prior to Wednesday's 3-for-6 day at the plate, Pena had gone 0-for-14 in the previous four games.

Nevertheless, a .321/.377/.474 slash line, including nine home runs to go along with 15 stolen bases, the 6-foot-1 slugger has already paid a handsome return on investment based on his fantasy draft-day price tag.

(Update: Pena went 2-for-5 on Thursday)

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