Hitter Fantasy Baseball Breakouts - Risers to Watch and Waiver Wire Outlooks (Week 12)

Jarod's hitter fantasy baseball breakouts, sleepers, and risers to watch for Week 12 of 2025. His list includes waiver wire outlooks and underachieving hitters so far.

Welcome back to my Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitters article for Week 12 of the 2025 MLB season. The focus of this article is to highlight players who could be on the verge of a breakout, citing current active hitting streaks along with recent leaders in batting average and isolated power (ISO). You will also find expected batting average (xSLG) underachievers and overachievers.

In this week's edition, we'll dive into players like Brooks Lee, Alejandro Kirk, and Ceddanne Rafaela. You'll not only find out who is hot at the plate, but also which hitters deserve better results based on their expected stats, or who might be on the verge of a cold spell.

Last week, Marcus Semien and Max Muncy were a couple of good callouts who kept on hitting. So, let's take a closer look at our breakout watch to help your fantasy baseball teams heading into Week 12. You might find a potential waiver wire target or some worthy DFS plays!

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Hit Streak Leaders

Data through 6/11

Brooks Lee (11 games)

It's not the most impressive hit streak we've covered in this article, but it is the longest current hit streak nonetheless. Over this stretch of 11 games, Lee has gone 15-for-45 (.333), which includes two doubles, a home run, six RBI, six runs scored, and his only stolen base of the season.

The last four home runs hit by Brooks Lee have come with #MNTwins trailing. They went onto win three of those four games, including their game this afternoon. pic.twitter.com/gjtlLI6fWj

— Twins Dingers (@TwinsDingers) June 8, 2025

One concerning thing about this streak, though, is that he's drawn just one walk compared to 11 strikeouts; however, the 24-year-old has countered that with a better-than-average chase rate, a solid 82.1 percent contact rate, and a 97.1 percent zone contact rate.

With some of these decent peripherals, the streak may have some legs, but with a 2.9 percent barrel rate and a 35.3 percent hard-hit rate during this time, it will likely continue to be in the form of singles rather than extra-base hits.

The hot stretch has only lifted the switch-hitter's season-long slash line to .256/.295/.372 with a .294 wOBA and 88 wRC+. Still, while he's hitting there's fantasy value, especially given his positional versatility (2B/3B/SS). The former eighth-overall draft pick is still available in most leagues.

(Update: Lee went 1-for-4 with a single and an RBI on Thursday, extending his streak to 12 games)

Highest Batting Average Last Seven Days

Data through 6/11, minimum 13 at-bats

Alejandro Kirk (.519 BA)

Alejandro Kirk has been hot over the past week, going 14-for-27 (.519), which includes a pair of doubles and two home runs, but he's been hitting the ball well for much longer than that.

The diminutive backstop has hit safely in 15 of the last 16 games in which he started, going 26-for-59 (.441) over that stretch and pushing his season-long slash line to .325/.367/.440 with a .352 wOBA and 129 wRC+.

Alejandro Kirk's 69.6% hard-hit% over the last 30 days is #1 in Major League Baseball#LightsUpLetsGo
pic.twitter.com/Ef3U7q5Kmu

— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) June 11, 2025

The right-handed slugger will have a hard time keeping it going this weekend as the Blue Jays face the trio of Ranger Suarez, Cristopher Sanchez, and Zack Wheeler, but he does have four hits off the latter two in his career, including two doubles.

Heriberto Hernandez (.500 BA)

Heriberto Hernandez debuted on May 30, and after going 2-for-12 (.167) over his first five games, the 25-year-old has gone 8-for-12 (.667) over his last four, including two doubles and a home run.

As a career .260 hitter in the minors, it's hard to envision the right-handed hitter keeping up this pace for much longer, but he did hit 23 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A last year, so there is definitely some pop in his bat.

The Dominican had nine additional home runs this season before his call-up; however, it came with a 35.0 percent strikeout rate.

We'll see how much longer he can keep this up, but for managers in NL-only leagues looking for a hot bat, Hernandez is available in nearly every league.

Highest ISO Last Seven Days

Data through 6/11, minimum 13 at-bats

Jo Adell (.632 ISO)

We've seen this movie before. Jo Adell's bat gets hot, he smacks a bunch of home runs and looks like the former first-round draft pick everyone thought he would be, then retreats to the Mendoza Line on the back of a poor strikeout rate.

Only time will tell if this time is any different, but the first part of that movie is playing out right now, with four home runs coming over the last week, and seven of his 13 total home runs coming in the last 11 games alone.

🗓️ JO IN JUNE 🗓️

In 10 June games, Jo Adell has 6 HR and 10 RBI with a 1.186 OPS. The six homers are tied for the MLB lead. pic.twitter.com/wz0RztMWN3

— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) June 11, 2025

The 26-year-old is currently pacing for around 30 home runs, and should at least easily surpass his previous career high of 20, which he set last season.

What offers hope that this season could be different is that his strikeout rate is way down (24.6 percent) to almost around league average (~22 percent), his 14.2 percent barrel rate is the best mark of his career, and the 6-foot-2 slugger has a .271 xBA, which is 48 points higher than his actual BA of .223.

Just two steals on the season is a bit disappointing, but with a .334 wOBA and 113 wRC+, he's already provided a heck of a return on investment this season.

If the batting average can close the gap with the xBA while providing solid power, fantasy managers who invest now could be rewarded. Adell is available in around 75 percent of Yahoo! leagues.

Most Steals Last Seven Days

Data through 6/11

Jose Caballero is running wild; it's too bad the six steals came with nine at-bats in seven games. I outlined Jeremy Pena in last week's article, and he's continued to hit and steal bases.

Ceddanne Rafaela (three SBs)

I covered Ceddanne Rafaela in last week's article, but it was for the power numbers he was putting up. I mentioned in the article, "One drawback, though, is that he hasn't stolen a base (or even attempted to) since April 30 after swiping seven in the first month."

Clearly, he read this article, and I planted a seed that got him moving again on the basepaths, as he stole three bases over the last week, now with 10 on the year. The 24-year-old is hitting .365 (19-for-52) since May 28. So long as he's getting on base, look for him to keep racking up additional steals.

The native of Curacao is hitting near or at the bottom of the order most nights, which is not great for DFS. Still, he's putting up serviceable numbers for season-long fantasy and is available in around 40 percent of leagues. The right-handed hitter is also eligible at 2B, SS, and OF on Yahoo!.

xSLG Underachiever

Data through 6/11 

Nolan Jones (.299 vs. .433)

A couple of seasons ago, in 2023, Nolan Jones played a fantastic 106 games with the Rockies, hitting 20 home runs and stealing 20 bases with a .395 wOBA and 137 wRC+.

A .401 BABIP implied he may have been a bit lucky that year, but it seems the pendulum has swung a bit too far in the other direction over the past two seasons, culminating with a .208 BA this season for the Guardians compared to an xBA of .249.

However, it's not just the BA; the SLG is also notable, coming in at .299 compared to a .433 xSLG. The good news is that his contact rate this season is a career-best 79.1 percent, hard-hit rate is at 46.8 percent, which is 4.9 percent higher than it was in '23, and the left-handed hitter still has a solid 8.3 percent barrel rate.

Keep your eyes peeled for a multi-hit game sometime this week, and if he can record one, look out, there should be plenty more where that came from.

xSLG Overachiever

Data through 6/11

TJ Friedl (.440 vs. .339)

TJ Friedl hit 18 home runs in 556 plate appearances back in 2023 despite registering a paltry 3.2 percent barrel rate that season.

TJ Friedl goes yard to extend the Reds lead! pic.twitter.com/1te2JkAHmP

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 9, 2025

So to see him collect 15 or more in 2025 would not be a stretch, and with a career .435 SLG, this season doesn't even look out of the ordinary. Along with his hustle out of the box, the left-handed hitter looks like he'll be a perennial xBA-outperformer as well.

However, with three home runs in his last six games, that is not a pace he can keep up for the remainder of the season, so look for his SLG to regress in the short term, even if some of those home runs turn merely into doubles.

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