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Should you draft Woody Marks or Jarquez Hunter in 2025 dynasty fantasy football rookie drafts? John Johnson breaks down the profiles and fantasy football outlooks for Marks and Hunter.
Houston Texans running back Woody Marks, selected with pick No. 116 overall, and Los Angeles Rams running back Jarquez Hunter, chosen just one spot later at No. 117 overall, were both drafted in the fourth round of the 2025 NFL Draft. In dynasty fantasy football leagues, they're both targets in rookie drafts.
However, it's not always easy to pick the right player. Even players drafted so closely in NFL Drafts, both to offenses that are projected to be solid, can have wildly different careers, and it can become obvious very quickly which is the better player.
While Marks and Hunter might be viewed in the same tier by fantasy football managers, I'll argue today that they're not close. Data-driven approaches are usually my favorite, with evidence supporting my points, so I'll try to do that. Let's dive in!
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Woody Marks Fantasy Football Analysis
It would appear that Marks, currently, will slot in as the team's RB3 immediately, with a chance to compete with much-maligned RB Dameon Pierce for the RB2 job. Whether or not he wins that remains to be seen, but even if he does, there's very little chance he leapfrogs Joe Mixon.
Mixon was the team's clear workhorse in 2024, and though he struggled with injuries and faded late in the year, he handled a huge workload. He averaged just 4.15 yards per carry, but that wasn't entirely his fault. He still looked pretty solid on film.
Joe Mixon going off today 🔥
119 yards
1 TD
5.7 YPC
21 carries— Jordan Pun (@Texans_Thoughts) September 8, 2024
With that out of the way, we should evaluate Marks' long-term prospects. Mixon is signed through the 2025 and 2026 seasons, though it wouldn't be too hard for Houston to let him go after this year. Marks thus likely has, at best, one year of sitting before he could get a shot at starting.
But Marks' pick was befuddling to me. Not only is his film not impressive, but his advanced metrics were simply some of the worst in college football. Marks struggles mightily, especially with getting more than what the defense gives him, which isn't a good thing.
Running Back draft class career production pic.twitter.com/2HPoYrbOvE
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) May 8, 2025
Among all rookie running backs drafted in the 2025 NFL Draft, Marks ranked dead last in yards after contact per attempt (2.67), dead last in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.16), and bottom-7 in rushes of 10 or more yards (just 13.1 percent). The receiving numbers are a bit less revealing for running backs.
So, as a rusher, Marks really doesn't bring much to the table. He was the worst rookie at essentially making the most of his opportunities by generating extra yards after things got tough (i.e., when he was contacted) and didn't do very well getting away from tackle attempts.
A cool thing about Woody Marks is that he's a Day 3 player that was traded for with Day 2 Capitol. https://t.co/y90fHrkJvu pic.twitter.com/pihArctrB1
— Jagger May (@JagSays) May 5, 2025
Marks seemed like a reach at the time, and the advanced stats back it up. On film, he's just a subpar athlete with subpar agility, burst, and strength. He makes some "nice plays" that coincidentally every running back that gets selected makes.
It's easy to laser focus on a player and become a believer in their skill set, and think they'll have a promising NFL career because they just have to, and they're good players. It's hard for me to get on board with this for Marks, though. I don't even know if he beats out Pierce for the RB2 job.
RB Dameon Pierce had a limited workload throughout his college career but I get why people like what he brings to the table.
I view him more as a early Day 3 type, but the appeal of Pierce is on runs like this. Solid vision and burst and looking to maul any would-be tackler. pic.twitter.com/auwPKV1wJd
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) February 24, 2022
It helps to remove the blinders and pull up the college tape of the other running backs in the RB room, like Pierce. Pierce just looked like the better prospect on film, though they weren't that far off, and Pierce fared better in the elusiveness and YAC departments.
In order for me to be excited about Marks, I'd need to see some evidence that he was clearly better than the other backups on the roster and that he could eventually challenge for and hold down an RB1 role in the NFL. I haven't seen that at all, so I'm really not interested in Marks.
When Woody Marks hit USC, he ran wild—1,133 yards, 9 TDs, first 1,000-yard rusher for the Trojans since 2017. 5.7 ypc, All-Big Ten Second Team, and a 146-yard flu-game vs. Nebraska. ABSOLUTE Legend ✌️ pic.twitter.com/XMTz7jLf2e
— Trojan Football ✌️ ᶠᵃⁿ (@TrojanFBx) April 15, 2025
Looking over Marks' tape is an important exercise for many -- a back can look solid on tape, but if you really pay attention and don't see many tackle breaks on strong tackle attempts, that's not a good thing. Sometimes a team's scheming and blocking really help an RB put up good numbers.
The Texans this season are likely to lean more into the pass, having drafted wide receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel in the second and third rounds and having signed WR Christian Kirk in the offseason. Their offense sputtered last season when they bone-headedly insisted on running as much as possible.
I don't see that continuing this year, and with former Los Angeles Rams passing-game coordinator Nick Caley now serving as the Texans offensive coordinator, they should be set to pass at a much higher rate, hurting the fantasy values of all the team's RBs.
Texans, RB Nick Chubb agree to 1-year, $2.5M deal that can be worth up to $5M. (via @Rapsheet) pic.twitter.com/Wwf3mJvgZ0
— NFL (@NFL) June 9, 2025
In more recent news, and in new that lessens Marks' chance of doing much at all in 2024 even further, the Texans signed RB Nick Chubb, formerly of the Cleveland Browns, to a 1-year deal. Marks could spend the season as the team's RB4, and the RB3 if he's lucky.
Chubb was a shell of his former self last season, but another year of recovery from his injuries should help him regain plenty of the explosiveness he used to possess. Teams sometimes draft players as depth pieces. That might just be what Marks was selected to be. Avoid!
Jarquez Hunter Fantasy Football Analysis
Hunter is a player I view much differently from Marks. He was a machine at forcing missed tackles, put up monster efficiency numbers against the SEC, gained quite a few yards after contact, and was a significantly better athlete than Marks.
In fact, if Hunter hadn't made the mistake of being 5-foot-9 and 204 pounds, it stands to reason that he'd have been drafted much, much higher. But teams know that it's a bit harder for the smaller backs to succeed at the next level, so it shouldn't be much of a surprise that Hunter fell to the fourth.
Jarquez Hunter career numbers (compared to other '25 prospects)
+ YPC: 6.3 (4th among 31 RBs)
+ MTF/Att: 0.31 (T-4th)
+ YACo/Att: 3.96 (4th)
+ Breakaway Run %: 10.2% (2nd)With an 88th percentile 40 and 4 productive years in the SEC, Hunter feels severely underrated at RB23. https://t.co/qwa1s9itHG
— Dataroma (@ffdataroma) April 10, 2025
Delving into Hunter's stats and film essentially gave me the opposite feeling that I got when evaluating Marks. With Marks, I was poring over tape, trying to find impressive, abrupt moves or powerful runs where he did a lot more than what was asked of him and delivered results.
With Hunter, I came away with such a positive impression that I wondered why he wasn't getting more hype. It's difficult to find major flaws in Hunter's film, and he looked very pro-ready, with sound fundamentals. In addition, his explosive-play ability will be a huge boon to a Rams run game that severely lacked in them in 2024.
Sean McVay has a type. But Jarquez Hunter had a lot more burst than Kyren and Corum coming out.
- Reception Share: Best-season mark in college
- Breakout Score: Schedule- and age-adjusted receiving yards per team pass attempt
- Career explosive run rate courtesy of PFF pic.twitter.com/uTTyRufR38— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) April 29, 2025
Hunter always seemed to find a way to rip off big runs, whether it was by using his great vision to find small creases in the blocks to exploit, evading strong tackle attempts, setting up tacklers to fail by making anticipatory lateral moves while running with the ball, and/or accelerating extremely quickly to blow past linebackers.
If a running back (re: Jarquez Hunter) can accelerate rapidly with one or two off balance steps, he can be a nightmare for defenses. Off-balance acceleration is a very under-appreciated skill for running backs. pic.twitter.com/9zfCB4cK83
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) June 3, 2025
I haven't yet written an article about the nuances of off-balance acceleration, but I think it's important to note Hunter's ability here. Forcing missed tackles is great, but how quickly players can recover from stumbles or contact that forces their body into awkward positions is absolutely crucial.
In the same vein, there are simply a ton of players who don't have this ability. When caught off-balance, they tend not to be able to regain their footing quickly, or fall to trip attempts. See: Kaleb Johnson, one of the worst trip-avoiders in college football last season.
Kyren Williams in 2023:
-5.02 YPC
-2 Fumbles
-3.9% 15+ Yd run rate
-0.21 MTF/Att
-2.27 YBCon/Att
-2.75 YACon/AttIn 2024:
-4.11 YPC
-5 Fumbles
-1.9% 15+ Yd run rate (3rd worst in NFL, min 100 Att)
-0.13 MTF/Att
-2.02 YBCon/Att
-2.09 YACon/AttData per @FantasyPtsData
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) May 27, 2025
Due to Rams' current lead running back Kyren Williams' issues with being extremely slow and fumbling the ball constantly, it's easy to see a pathway for Hunter to take over this backfield. It might only take one Williams injury for Hunter to seize the job and run with it.
Williams was horrific at creating explosive plays. He had just two runs of 20 or more yards on a ridiculous 316 rushes in 2024. As I show above, he's not a good enough athlete to create many explosives in the run game without elite run-blocking.
Factor in that Rams head coach Sean McVay is an elite play-caller, and it's obvious that Hunter is the better pick. The upside is league-winning, even if Hunter is currently 3rd on the depth chart. He's better than both Williams and his current backup, Blake Corum. Draft Hunter everywhere.
Conclusion
There isn't much point in drafting Marks. I have my serious doubts that he will ever become a startable player in fantasy football. On the other hand, Hunter could quickly become one of the biggest steals of 2025 rookie drafts, so I suggest you take as much of him as possible.
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