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John's fantasy football analysis and player outlook for Ashton Jeanty. Is Ashton Jeanty worth a first-round draft pick in 2025 fantasy football redraft leagues?
Las Vegas Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty was selected by his new team with the sixth overall pick in this year's NFL Draft. The hype surrounding the Boise State product has reached a fever pitch at this point, and his ADP has soared in all league formats in fantasy football.
Granted that we've never seen him play an NFL snap before, it's worth examining whether it's worth it to draft a rookie this high. It's not as if there isn't precedent for how running backs who are drafted early in Round 1 will produce, but this time it's a bit different.
Jeanty just came off a season rushing for over 2,600 yards, dominating the competition at every turn, nearly breaking Barry Sanders' single-season rushing record and finishing in second place in Heisman Trophy voting. But is he worth picking in Round 1 in redraft fantasy football leagues? Let's dive in.
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Ashton Jeanty Current Offensive Situation
Jeanty joined the Raiders, who have had one of the league's poorer offenses over the past few seasons. However, they completely cleaned house last season, hiring former Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll as their new HC. They also added Chip Kelly as their new offensive coordinator.
Kelly has extensive head-coaching experience with the Oregon Ducks, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, UCLA Bruins, and, most recently, the Ohio State Buckeyes. He's known for his fast-paced, hurry-up offenses that were productive with the Ducks and Eagles. But it's been a while since he's led an NFL offense.
The evolution of Chip Kelly’s offense pic.twitter.com/ga48OMbEUx
— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) May 8, 2025
It's hard to imagine Kelly won't be an upgrade from Luke Getsy and Scott Turner. But we still haven't seen an NFL offense from him in years, so it's hard to project just how good it will be. Of course, Ohio State's offense was pretty good in 2024, so this is a positive thing.
As far as the team personnel, the Raiders got a big upgrade at quarterback. Former Seahawks QB Geno Smith reunited with Carroll in a trade in the offseason, and Smith far surpasses last year's starting QBs, Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O'Connell.
Geno Smith’s arm talent is ELITE. pic.twitter.com/8Rngp5alZy
— J.C. (@RaiderLaker24) May 14, 2025
Breaking down Smith's film and evaluating him independently as much as I could from his offensive line, offensive coordinator, and wide receiver problems last season convinced me that he is a great talent. His career resurrection story is very impressive. He was near the top of the league in some advanced statistical categories.
The whole offense is set to take a step up. On the offensive line side of things, I'm a bit more lukewarm. The OL is pretty much fine. Last year, though, it was below average in both run-blocking and pass-blocking. So, I wouldn't say it's anything to get excited about. Raiders fans would probably agree.
Ashton Jeanty forced 16 missed tackles against Penn State. Here's about 5 of them despite not hitting full speed. Unreal player. pic.twitter.com/GUOpfQFEoK
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) February 21, 2025
Since Jeanty doesn't have a lot of tape against Power 4 teams, his tape against Penn State is very useful to break down. The hope is that even with a mediocre offensive line, if he's given small gaps to run through, he can power through arm tackles and tackle attempts made laterally and continue to grind through yards.
I'm reluctant to take a firm stance due to Jeanty's lack of tape against great defenses. The sample size is very small, but the capabilities seem to be there. However, the NFL is a different level of competition than even the tougher college defenses. But Jeanty should be well-equipped to deal with it.
Geno Smith’s accuracy is ELITE!
When you combine @GenoSmith3’s accuracy with Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers, Jack Bech.
You can see why this Raiders offense has some legit sneaky upside pic.twitter.com/6xkf2U4FxJ
— Raiders Report Mitchell Renz (@MitchellRenz365) May 27, 2025
I personally expect the Raiders to at least have a slightly better than average offense. It's possible they could sneak into the top 10 if their offensive line plays better this season, Smith stays in form, and there aren't a lot of injuries. All in all, not bad.
Add in that Jeanty will likely get a ton of volume, and the lofty projections for his production start to make a bit more sense. But this isn't some elite situation for a running back. It's doubtful that Vegas will finish in the top five of run-blocking units in the NFL, so pumping the brakes just a bit wouldn't be a bad idea.
Ashton Jeanty Projections for 2025
I'm never that keen to project final statistics for players who haven't played a down in the league yet, and especially not for teams that have undergone so much change that we haven't yet seen the results of on the field. Add in potential injuries, and it becomes very difficult to accurately predict things.
However, it's worth considering how much volume he'll have. I'm not sure it will please everyone. Many seem to think that Jeanty will have an absolute mountain of carries in 2025, but I'm not so confident in the Raiders' future ability to run the ball as much as possible and ignore the passing game.
So the Raiders defense gave up the 8th most points per game and the 6th most points per play of any defense in 2024. They brought in Geno Smith, who played great last season. The idea that they can just become an incredibly run heavy team overnight baffles me. pic.twitter.com/Zn9V8K8QEo
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) May 24, 2025
I know this isn't something anyone wants to hear, but with two games against each of the Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Denver Broncos, and contests vs. the Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Commanders, reloaded Jacksonville Jaguars, and Houston Texans, the Raiders could face a very tough slate of offenses.
If their defense isn't able to make a huge turnaround in 2025, they could be forced into a lot of games where Smith has to air it out to give the team a chance to win. Jeanty's rushing volume could suffer as a result. He could make up for it with receptions, but I don't think he's an elite pass-catching back.
Whether Jeanty pays off at his ADP, which is already a tall order considering how inflated it is, should depend on how much receiving work he gets. But on a team with Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, and 2nd round pick Jack Bech, who knows how much volume Jeanty will get.
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) May 31, 2025
The most elite of workhorse running backs generally thrive on teams that have a good enough defense to enable the run game to dominate. It's a crucial factor. For those without workhorse usage to finish in the top five of running backs, they need elite efficiency and touchdown numbers.
And we generally see those consistently only on the NFL's best offenses. For example, Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs, himself a highly touted prospect, didn't have a workhorse role last season, but still finished as the RB2 overall in PPR points per game.
The problem is that I don't anticipate the Raiders offense to be elite, nor do I think they'll have a defense that enables them to run the absolute hell out of the ball. There could be quite a few games in which they're forced to pass heavily, and it would make more sense for them to push the ball down the field than to spam short passes to Jeanty.
The Raiders have the 13th ranked defense in points allowed while also having the 3rd cheapest defensive roster is INSANE magic by Patrick Graham #RaiderNation pic.twitter.com/NTj0T2Ink4
— YEYO🇲🇽 (@ItsYeyo95) November 14, 2023
While it's certainly possible they take a leap, they focused heavily on offensive draft picks this year, and they didn't make any huge free-agent signings. The unit will have its hands full. Thus, while Jeanty will certainly be used heavily, I don't expect him to exceed 300 carries by much, if at all. 16 rushes per game sounds reasonable.
I expect his receiving numbers to disappoint in Year 1 as well. Vegas' offense has quite a few weapons now, especially if tight end Michael Mayer leaps. And Jeanty averaged just under 27 catches per season in college. I'd say he finishes the year right around 300-310 touches, with not a ton of receptions.
Is Ashton Jeanty Worth Taking in Round 1 of Redraft Fantasy Football Leagues?
I'd lean toward no. For starters, it's usually not a great idea to take rookies so early in redraft leagues. The consensus seems to be that Jeanty is a sure thing, but by definition, rookies are usually not. And he needs a sky-high finish to be worth taking over the other players in Round 1.
This conversation is pointless without context. In leagues with normal PPR scoring settings, Jeanty is currently ranked around spot 11, and his ADP is even higher -- he's being drafted, on average, with the eighth overall pick. Not a big fan of that.
Ashton Jeanty at spot 11 still feels too rich for me. At least 15 players I'd rather have, no doubt. pic.twitter.com/eSoUyXRIaa
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) May 31, 2025
I don't think it's worth spending a first-round pick on him when you can just draft a player you know is already elite. Ja'Marr Chase, Bijan Robinson, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Brian Thomas Jr., Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Malik Nabers, Puka Nacua, Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, and Drake London are all players I'd rather draft.
There are yet more, but that at least pushes him out of the first round. Jeanty could have a fantastic season and still not live up to his draft capital. Let's say he finishes the year with 236 carries for 1,094 rushing yards, eight rushing touchdowns, and 47 catches for 414 yards and a score.
Ashton Jeanty finishing the year with 9 total touchdowns, over 1,500 yards from scrimmage, and 47 catches would be a fantastic season for a rookie. The problem is that it would only be good for RB11 last season. pic.twitter.com/chMmHGE3KV
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) May 31, 2025
Those are James Conner numbers, unfortunately. Jeanty has a higher bar to meet than that to justify a first-round selection. So, I won't be doing it. I'll happily take a proven stud veteran with my Round 1 picks in all leagues and wait until the later rounds to take my shots on my favorite rookies.
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