RADIO
Hello, Rotoballers! I hope everyone is doing well and is ready for another exciting year of PGA DFS. Showdown has returned for another season on DraftKings alongside the PGA Tour, and we’re here to help guide you, whether you’re looking to continue your journey from where you left off in 2024 or are new to this particular DFS format.
Due to weather delays and darkness, Round 2 will be completed early tomorrow morning. Several golfers still need to finish their rounds. So far, the morning wave has played slightly easier than the afternoon wave. Nico Echavarria is leading with the best score of the day at 9-under, though he still has two holes left to complete his second round. Scottie Scheffler has matched his course record with an 8-under 62. He is closely followed by Min Woo Lee, Echavarria, and Ryan Gerard, all of whom have yet to finish their second rounds.
Unlike standard golf DFS, which covers the entire tournament, Showdown focuses on each round as an individual event. It's crucial to find players who excel on approach shots, but it’s also important to make roster decisions that provide ownership leverage by selecting riskier players who may not have been performing their best recently but could have a strong bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
The weather forecast for tomorrow is calmer than Thursday and Friday. Afternoon rain from today will soften the course tomorrow, leading to low scores, especially for morning players.
Round 3 Strategy
The key to success in showdowns is to look for ball strikers who can have a standout putting performance. Having two exceptional putting days in a row is quite challenging, so we should focus on golfers who have been consistent with their approach shots and created birdie opportunities but fell short in converting them.
It’s also beneficial to target players who need to improve their position on the leaderboard, as they often push harder on moving day. Additionally, golfers who have shown some positive form in the first two rounds are great candidates to consider.
Keep in mind that ownership levels tend to decrease as the morning's first tee time approaches, so identifying players who are likely to bounce back is crucial for achieving significant wins.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Scottie Scheffler has been outstanding with the flat stick. He gained 2.52 strokes on the greens in Round 1 and 3.71 in Round 2. It's important to note that Scheffler lost 0.49 strokes on approach in Round 1 but gained 0.99 in Round 2. We know what he is capable of with his approach game, and considering his performance on the greens in the first two rounds, I’m betting he can replicate this form in Round 3 tomorrow.
Locked in and leading🔒 pic.twitter.com/v8mQ2vWz5f
— Texas Children’s Houston Open (@TCHouOpen) March 28, 2025
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Min Woo Lee has been playing excellent golf as of late. In Round 1, he lost 0.61 strokes on approach, and in Round 2, he lost 0.20 strokes. However, he gained 4.25 strokes putting in Round 1 and 2.01 strokes in Round 2, and he still has two holes left to play. While we typically prefer to target golfers who have performed well on approach and had a poor day on the greens, Lee has struggled with his approach shots in both rounds but appears to have figured out the greens.
Other Options: Tony Finau, Wyndham Clark
A story of overcoming the odds 💪
At 3 years old, @TexasChildrens patient Laurel was diagnosed with a rare and aggressive soft tissue tumor.
This week, @TonyFinauGolf invited the cancer survivor and high school golfer to the @TCHouOpen for a day she would remember forever ☺️ pic.twitter.com/3IXwwu5hhP
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) March 28, 2025
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Thomas Detry shot a 3-under 67 today, which included four birdies and one bogey. He has only bogeyed two holes in his first two rounds. Additionally, in Round 1, he lost 0.85 strokes on approach but gained 0.64 strokes putting. In Round 2, he improved his game, gaining 0.73 strokes on approach but losing 0.56 strokes putting. Detry is a player worth taking a chance on, as he has shown consistency and can go low with the calmer conditions expected in Round 3.
Other Options: Michael Kim, Keith Mitchell, Sahith Theegala
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Kevin Yu gained 4.79 strokes putting in Round 2. He may have a higher ownership percentage in Round 3, but it's important to note that he gained 1.05 strokes on approach and lost 2.78 strokes putting in Round 1. In Round 2, he gained 0.47 strokes on approach. He is an ideal target because he has shown consistency on approach in both rounds, giving himself with opportunities for birdies. While he was better with his putting in Round 2 compared to Round 1, the most crucial thing is that he created birdie chances in both rounds, which is exactly what we're looking for.
Other Options: Ben Griffin, Jake Knapp, Victor Perez, Rickie Fowler
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Adam Svensson has been solid with his approach game in both rounds. He gained 0.73 strokes on approach in Round 1 and 1.03 strokes in Round 2. This consistency is a strong indicator of what we can hope to expect in Round 3. Although he gained 1.36 strokes putting in Round 1, he lost 0.46 strokes in Round 2. Despite this drop, he's still managed to give himself birdie opportunities, which is exactly what we want to see, especially in the $6K range.
Other Options: Sami Valimaki, Chandler Phillips, Adam Hadwin, Chad Ramey
Introducing your 2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open champion… Stephan Jaeger pic.twitter.com/Ef6F4edVAc
— Texas Children’s Houston Open (@TCHouOpen) March 31, 2024
Guy I'm Playing That You Shouldn't
This will be an every-week addition to my article where I'll pick a golfer who I believe has shown he can go nuclear but has every chance he could dud and should generally be reserved for the largest field GPP tournaments.
Isaiah Salinda gained 2.88 strokes on approach in Round 1 and 0.54 strokes in Round 2. He lost 1.62 strokes putting in Round 1 but still managed to shoot a 1-under 69. However, in Round 2, he only gained 0.11 strokes putting. He didn’t perform as well on approach as he did in Round 1, but I believe he will continue to create birdie opportunities. He’s the type of golfer I’m willing to take a chance on.
This lineup is for demonstration purposes only.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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