5 Comeback Pitchers With Big Upside - Fantasy Baseball Draft Targets (2025)

March 20, 2025

Elliott's 5 comeback fantasy baseball pitchers - draft values, sleepers, targets with big upside for 2025. His SP picks include Jacob deGrom, Shane McClanahan, more.

Hey RotoBallers, it's that time of year again. Fantasy baseball draft season is in high gear, and Opening Day is right around the corder! With everyone dreaming of their breakout picks and top prospects right now, we've got a good opportunity to peek under the hood at some pitchers who struggled with injuries in 2024.

These are guys who missed most or all of last season with injuries that I think could be valuable on draft day. I've identified pitchers from all ranges in the draft; from top-50 players to a guy going after pick 300.

These pitchers will carry risk heading into the season, so there's a little something for everyone depending on your risk tolerance. ADP is taken from the last month of NFBC drafts as of March 18, 2025.

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Robbie Ray, SP, San Francisco Giants

NFBC ADP: 156.45

Ray has made just eight starts over the past two seasons after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2023. He also missed the final six weeks of the season with a strained hamstring, giving an early end to a frustratingly short season for Ray.

It’s been a struggle for Ray to stay on the mound, and it’s been a struggle to perform on the mound as well. Ray made seven starts last season and had a 4.70 ERA and 4.96 FIP in 30.2 innings. Not pretty, especially the 4.40 BB/9 and 1.76 HR/9.

Even with some ugly numbers, there are some indications that Ray could turn things around in 2025 if healthy.

One big positive for Ray was that his strikeouts were still present last season. Ray has made his bones as an elite strikeout pitcher at the major league level, and he had a dominant 12.62 K/9 and 33.3 percent strikeout rate last season, higher than his career marks.

Ray also had an elite 16.2 percent swinging-strike rate and 32.1 percent chase rate last season. Opponents really struggled to hit the slider and curveball last season. Batters hit just .148 off Ray’s slider with an 18.7 percent swinging-strike rate, 81.3 mph average exit velocity, and -13-degree average launch angle.

So, batters swung through the pitch often, and when they did hit it, they drove it weakly into the ground. That’s exactly what we want to see from Ray.

Batters also whiffed at his curveball a ton last season. Again, it was only seven starts, but Ray had an unreal 27.1 percent swinging-strike rate and a 41.8 percent chase rate with his curveball last year. Opponents did hit the pitch well when they made contact though, hitting .316 with a .684 SLG.

There was a large gap between the wOBA (.421) and xwOBA (.327), which suggests that Ray was unlucky with the pitch last season. Indeed, the knuckle curve had a .444 BABIP against despite a weak 85.5 mph average exit velocity.

I would certainly expect more fortuitous outcomes for Ray on his curveball in 2025, especially with a strong San Francisco defense behind him. Ray is going at pick 156 in NFBC drafts as of writing this, making him a fine mid-to-late round value play.

Robbie Ray's 2Ks in the 2nd. pic.twitter.com/fQWDqIhLmt

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 2, 2025

Jesus Luzardo, SP, Philadelphia Phillies

NFBC ADP: 240.88

Luzardo seems to be a forgotten man after injuries derailed his 2024 season in Miami. A top-20 starting pitcher heading into 2024, Luzardo is nearly going outside of the top 250 in NFBC leagues. Talk about a potential value. But why should we trust Luzardo?

He burned a lot of managers last season, and his career 4.29 ERA over 512 innings isn’t all that impressive. Everything went wrong for Luzardo in 2024. He had a 5.00 ERA over 12 starts and a reduced 7.83 K/9 (career 9.83 K/9). His velocity was down 1.2 mph, going from 96.7 in 2023 to 95.2 in 2024.

He had two separate IL stints for two separate injuries, including a nasty lumbar stress fracture. Can he turn it around?

It's not like Luzardo hasn’t shown us promise in the past. Luzardo was dominant between 2022-2023, posting a 3.48 ERA, 10.6 K/9, 20.9 percent K-BB%, and a 3.40 FIP over 279 innings during that stretch. Bad as he was last season, his slider and changeup were still earning whiffs.

Last season, batters hit .200 against Luzardo’s slider with a .347 SLG and 21.8 percent swinging-strike rate. Against the changeup, opponents hit .207 with a .328 SLG and a 22.2 percent swinging-strike rate.

He even had a solid 13.7 percent swinging-strike rate and 31.2 percent chase rate overall, but still had such a diminished strikeout rate. Why? His fastball.

Luzardo’s velocity was down in 2024, but that wasn’t the only problem with his fastball. Luzardo lost over an inch of vertical and horizontal movement with the pitch last season as well. His swinging-strike rate with the pitch was nearly halved, going from 8.4 percent in 2023 to 4.9 percent in 2024.

The good news is that Luzardo’s velocity and movement seem to be creeping back toward 2023 levels, at least in his first two spring starts. If Luzardo can recapture his fastball, he could be the pitcher we knew from 2022-23, which is why his draft cost is just too cheap.

I can not wait to watch Jesús Luzardo pitch. I still don’t think people understand how good he is. pic.twitter.com/3yVZyrWxRo

— Luke Arcaini (@ArcainiLuke) February 19, 2025

Jacob deGrom, SP, Texas Rangers

NFBC ADP: 54.43

Best described as a glass cannon, deGrom has struggled with injuries over the past four seasons and hasn’t pitched more than 92 innings in a season since 2019. The fact that he’s still being drafted around the top 50 is a testament to how talented deGrom is.

He might be the best starting pitcher in baseball when healthy. While deGrom presents a significant risk on draft day and is a familiar name on bust lists this time of year, let’s not forget how good he can be.

His past few seasons may have been marred by injury, but he was sensational when he was on the mound.

Between 2020-2024 deGrom has a 2.10 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 13.9 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 37.3 percent K-BB%, and a 1.80 FIP. It does not get much better than that. That’s a first-round talent, and he’s going at pick 54 in NFBC leagues, basically the same price as Dylan Cease.

Cease projects for a 3.4-3.5 ERA and 10.5 K/9 over 180 innings. Good numbers for sure, but they pale in comparison to what deGrom can do.

But deGrom is never healthy you say? Let’s do a little math. For simplicity's sake, let’s say deGrom reaches 90 innings pitching at his best.

He’s being projected for between 110-150, so 90 is a light estimate. That is 90 innings of a 2.10 ERA and 13.9 K/9, but we need to fill in the rest of the innings that deGrom can’t provide.

If we add 90 innings of a league average ERA (4.08) and strikeout rate (8.6 K/9) from last season and add it to deGrom’s stats we get roughly a 3.00 ERA and 11.2 K/9 over 180 innings. And that’s just with league-average help. If you’re sharp enough to be reading RotoBaller, you’re sharp enough to pick good streamers and pitchers off waivers and beat the league average.

I’m not saying I want 100 percent exposure to deGrom this season, he’s only made nine starts over the last two years. But I do think it’s worth having some exposure to deGrom, especially if he falls as managers shy away from him.

Everywhere you look deGrom is being called a bust, and no one wants to draft him. Zig when others are zagging and take a chance on the old man. He has league-winning potential if he stays healthy. I grabbed him at pick 59 as my SP1 in a competitive 5x5 Roto league last week and I was happy to take the value, especially when the next few pitchers off the board were Michael King and Framber Valdez.

Great pitchers, but they don’t have the upside of deGrom.

Felix Bautista, RP, Baltimore Orioles

NFBC ADP: 92.76

Bautista is another Tommy John casualty, missing all of 2024 recovering from UCL surgery. Before going under the knife, Bautista was considered among the best relievers in baseball and had the numbers to back it up. He only has 126 2/3 career innings, but Bautista has an insane 1.85 ERA, 2.42 FIP, and 14.07 K/9 over that stretch.

Bautista throws incredibly hard--he averaged 99.5 mph with his heater in 2023—and possesses one of the best splitters in the game today. If healthy, Bautista could be a top closer once again.

One of the best splitters might be an understatement for Bautista; he might have the best splitter of all. In 2023 batters hit .120 against the splitter with an .085 xBA, .111 xwOBA, and a bonkers 31.1 percent swinging-strike rate and 39.4 percent chase rate.

The numbers on it were just as good in 2022, and if healthy I see no reason that Bautista can’t recapture past glory with the pitch.

The splitter isn’t the only dominant pitch for Bautista either, his fastball is downright elite. Bautista throws it extremely hard and gets good chase rates and ground-ball rates with the pitch. In 2023, batters hit just .149 off Bautista’s fastball with a .231 SLG and .249 wOBA.

He even had a strong 37.7 percent whiff rate with the pitch that season. Bautista may be a two-pitch pitcher, but that’s all you need from the back end of the bullpen.

Another point in Bautista’s favor is his job security and the team he pitches for. Bautista has little competition for saves in Baltimore’s bullpen, and unless he implodes he should be the closer all season. He also happens to pitch for one of the best teams in baseball, meaning there should be ample save opportunities for Bautista.

His current NFBC ADP sits in the 90s and he’s the No. 8 ranked reliever by RotoBaller experts, which feels too cheap for someone who could be RP1 at year’s end.

Shane McClanahan, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

NFBC ADP: 127.21

Update: Unfortunately, McClanahan exited his spring start on 3/22/25 with an inflamed nerve in the triceps. He should no longer be drafted around pick 130, expect his draft price to tumble. Only take a chance on him later in drafts until we know more about the injury.

McClanahan missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but the hard-throwing lefty has looked healthy and ready to contribute this spring. McClanahan averaged 96.2 mph on the gun in his most recent spring training start and even touched 99 with his heater.

Velocity is going to be key for McClanahan, who relies heavily on his fastball-changeup combo to get strikeouts. Expected to be ready for Opening Day, McClanahan is going rather late in drafts at pick 127 in NFBC leagues.

The two-time All-Star has been brilliant when healthy, and he could be dominant in 2025 once again.

While health has proven a challenge for McClanahan, one thing that has remained true is his talent. Still just 27 years old, McClanahan has some impressive stats under his belt. He has a career 3.02 ERA and 3.93 K/BB ratio in 74 starts.

He also has an excellent 28 percent strikeout rate and 20.9 percent K-BB%. That would’ve put him in the top 10 among qualified starters in those respective categories. His career stats would’ve put him in line with Cole Ragans or Dylan Cease last season, and both of them are going in the top 50 picks.

McClanahan likely won’t match their volume, but he can be excellent over 150 or so innings, which is what the team says he will pitch this season.

McClanahan does a lot of things right on the mound. He’s an exceptional strikeout pitcher with multiple out pitches between his hard fastball, bendy curveball, and downright filthy changeup. In 2023, batters hit just .181 off McClanahan’s changeup with a monster 54.5 percent whiff rate.

At pick 127? Please and thank you. He’s also a solid groundball pitcher with good control, meaning he can help in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts. McClanahan is a prime bounce-back candidate and could pitch 150 elite innings.

Shane McClanahan, 98mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/Wfrr0VEeJu

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 6, 2025

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