Overvalued Closers and Relief Pitchers - Fantasy Baseball Regression Candidates

Andy's overvalued closers and relief pitchers who are potential fantasy baseball busts based on ADP. These regression candidates carry risk at their current ADP.

Several relief pitchers enjoyed career seasons during 2024. However their underlying metrics suggest they could be due for a significant step back in the 2025 season, and may be overvalued based on ADP for fantasy baseball drafts.

In this piece, I will analyze four relief pitchers with concerning underlying metrics despite the strong standard statistics they posted last season. Throughout my analysis, I will reference several metrics, such as xFIP, xERA, and SIERA, as those can be useful tools in indicating who overperformed last season. All ADP referenced in this piece is provided by Yahoo.

While these pitchers could still be effective in 2025, they carry more risk in the upcoming season based on their draft price and ADP. Be sure to follow @RotoBallerMLB and me at @A_SMITH_FS on X for league-winning content all offseason. Let's dive in!

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JoJo Romero, RP, St. Louis Cardinals

If you played in a holds league, JoJo Romero was a valuable asset in 2024. The 28-year-old tallied 30 holds, which were the eighth-most in the sport. Across 59 innings, he held a respectable 3.36 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. He tallied 51 punchouts and held a strong 6.6 percent walk rate.

However, a quick look beyond the surface suggests the southpaw could face significant regression in 2025. According to Baseball Savant, Romero generated a 5.14 xERA and a .272 xBA, which placed him in the eighth and 10th percentile, respectively.

In addition, he also allowed barrels at a high 10.5 percent rate (seventh percentile) and hard hits at a 39.8 percent rate (39th percentile).

Also, his most-used pitch, his sinker, was not nearly as effective in 2024 and could trend downward. During the 2023 season, his sinker generated a solid .266 xBA and a stellar .383 xSLG. However, despite enjoying success according to his standard statistics, his sinker generated a much worse .326 xBA and a .540 xSLG in 2024.

His slider and changeup also generated lower whiff rates compared to 2023. In 2024, his changeup generated a low 29.3 percent whiff rate. However, in 2023, this pitch generated a strong 45.3 percent whiff rate. Seeing his swing-and-miss pitches generate fewer whiffs is not a good sign and suggests he could be in store for significant regression in 2025.

While Romero is still penciled in to be the setup man in St. Louis and has value in deeper holds leagues, do not expect similar ratios this season.

Jason Foley, RP, Detroit Tigers

Jason Foley spent most of the 2024 campaign operating as the ninth-inning option in Detroit. Across 60 innings, Foley tallied 28 saves and held a 3.15 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP. Despite posting a modest 18.4 percent strikeout rate, he was still a valuable fantasy asset, given his role in the Detroit bullpen. However, he has several concerning metrics that may push him out of the closer during the 2025 season.

Foley generated a 4.20 xERA and a .255 xBA, which were both well below the average marks (39th and 28th percentile), according to Baseball Savant.

In addition, Foley generated a weak 4.09 SIERA, suggesting he should face significant regression in 2025. SIERA, or Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average, measures a pitcher's performance but removes factors such as defense and "luck." His SIERA is alarming, likely due to the low number of whiffs and the high hard-hit rate (41.2 percent) he generates, which suggests he may be allowing too much quality contact

In addition, his most-used pitch, his sinker, generated a high .441 xSLG. His second-most used pitch, his slider, also significantly overperformed as it only generated a .145 SLG but was expected to generate a .318 xSLG.

With the Tigers adding Tommy Kahnle to their bullpen in the offseason and the late-season breakout of Tyler Holton, Foley's days as the closer in Detroit may be numbered, especially if these underlying metrics catch up to him.

Holton tallied four saves across his final 19 2/3 innings last season. During this stint, he held a 1.37 ERA with a stellar 0.66 WHIP.

Through five 1/3 innings this spring, Foley has already begun to struggle, posting an 8.44 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP. Given that the Tigers began to give Holton more high-leverage opportunities down the stretch, Foley could even begin the season in a closer-by-committee.

Foley could see his fantasy value plummet with his already low strikeout upside and decreasing save opportunities.

Robert Suarez, RP, San Diego Padres

Robert Suarez enjoyed a breakout season in 2024 as he tallied 36 saves, the fourth-most in the sport. Across a career-high 65 innings, the right-hander posted a 2.77 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP.

Under the hood, he generated a 3.05 xERA and a .219 xBA, suggesting minor regression. However, he generated a high 3.81 xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching) and a 3.53 SIERA, both of which were well above his ERA.

FIP calculates a pitcher's ability to prevent runs independent of their defense as it emphasizes events pitchers have control over, like strikeouts and home runs. xFIP is a slight adjustment to that statistic where home runs are calculated using the sport's HR/FB ratio from that season to reduce statistical noise.

Given that Suarez struggled to keep the ball on the ground (49th percentile in ground ball), his metrics suggest he should be in store for some regression. In addition to not keeping the ball on the ground, Suarez also allowed a hefty 40.4 percent hard-hit rate (35th percentile) and a 7.7 percent barrel rate (49th percentile).

In addition, Suarez has two high-leverage relievers behind him and could easily take the closer role if these metrics catch up to him. Jason Adam is listed as the setup man and posted an elite 1.95 ERA with a 0.86 WHIP. Under the hood, he placed in the 87th percentile in xERA and 90th percentile in xBA last season.

Jeremiah Estrada holds the highest strikeout upside in the bullpen (37.3 percent strikeout rate) and could also earn save opportunities if Suarez were to struggle.

Despite being a relatively safe bet for saves again, fantasy managers should expect some regression in his ratios if they call his name on draft day.

Fantasy managers in deeper formats should consider stashing Adam and Estrada as they could find a path to being a must-start relief pitcher if Suarez falls out of the closer job. At a similar ADP, I would recommend selecting Ryan Walker of the San Francisco Giants, who carries a much higher strikeout upside and could even have a more secure role as the top ninth-inning option.

Ryan Helsley, RP, St. Louis Cardinals

Lastly, the final pitcher who could face regression during the 2025 season is the Cards' closer. Helsley led the sport in saves last season with 49. However, the Cardinals only won 83 games, meaning Helsley tallied a save in just over 59 percent of their victories, which is unsustainable.

In comparison, Raisel Iglesias tallied 34 saves for Atlanta last season, who won 89 games. This means he earned a save in 38 percent of their victories.

Helsley is being drafted (67.1 ADP on Yahoo) as a top option for saves but is pitching on a rebuilding team. It is improbable that Helsley sees that many save opportunities during the season again, given the current state of the Cardinals roster.

In addition, fantasy managers should also expect Helsley's ratios to decline. Last season, the 30-year-old posted a 2.04 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP across 66 1/3 innings. He tallied 79 punchouts but posted a modest 8.6 percent walk rate (40th percentile).

However, Helsley generated a 3.08 SIERA and a 3.35 xFIP, which is higher than the 2.41 FIP he held.

Much of this was credited to his low 37.2 percent ground ball rate. Helsley puts the ball in the air but relies heavily on generating whiffs. His ratios could increase significantly if he fails to miss as many bats.

While he is expected to open the season as the clear closer in St. Louis, fantasy managers should steer clear of his hefty price tag. Instead, they should pivot towards Iglesias at a similar 65 ADP or Andres Munoz a few rounds later at his 83.9 ADP.

🚨 Fade Ryan Helsley at ADP
Helsley led MLB with 49 saves in 2024, but STL only won 83 games—he saved 59% of their wins (unsustainable). Compare that to Raisel Iglesias (34 saves, 38% of ATL’s wins).

With STL rebuilding, save opps will drop. His ERA (2.04) outperformed SIERA…

— Andy Smith (@A_Smith_FS) February 15, 2025

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