Tale of Two Seasons - Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Edition Part III

In Part 3 of his series, Robert Lorge looks at several wide receivers with widely different performances from the first and second half of the 2024 NFL Season. He identifies those players, look at those splits, and pin points their cause to determine which ones are most likely to repeat in 2025.

If you’ve played fantasy football for any time, you’re accustomed to seeing a player’s splits—a comparison between his stats during one period of the season vs another. This is different than a two or three-game sample. We're looking at two samples, typically consisting of six to eight games per split.

Sometimes, splits can be just noise. A cold spell. A hot streak. Other times, they coincide perfectly with a trade, an injury, a coaching change, or maybe, in the case of a rookie, the light bulb just turning on and the player never looking back.

Splits can be fun. Entertaining. Misleading. The trick is finding out the why. Why did this change happen? If we can identify the reason, we can accurately respond to the market’s reaction to any split, good or bad. This is the third part of a four-part series of articles analyzing wide receiver splits. Be sure to check out the other parts if you haven't already. If you want to take advantage of our great premium tools, please use promo code "BOOM" to receive a 10% discount.

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Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens

His splits aren’t quite as drastic as the ones we’ve already in our first and second entries into this four-part series, but they’re significant enough to note. Flowers was an ideal target for most fantasy managers last year.

He was a former first-round pick coming off a strong rookie season, finishing with 77 catches, 858 yards, and five touchdowns in 16 games. He also chipped in 56 rushing yards and a score on the ground.

Being tied to Lamar Jackson certainly didn’t hurt either, and early in the season, Flowers was making good on all of that promise. As you can see in the chart below, he averaged 72.7 yards per game in the first nine weeks of the year, putting him on pace for 1,236 yards. It's just the kind of season fantasy managers were hoping for.

Unlike most entries thus far, Flowers’ splits went the other way. He averaged just 50.6 in the season's final eight games—a pace of just 860 yards. Even if we eliminate Week 18, that rebounds to just 56.1. Still falling short of a 1,000-yard pace, clocking in at 954 yards.

What changed? Just about everything. His target share and his target rate decreased. That led to a decline in the number of targets he saw per game overall.

His average depth of target increased by over two yards. Generally speaking, targets further down the field have a lower catch rate due to increased difficulty. We see that here with Flowers. His catch rate decreased from 68.7% to 57.1%. Deeper targets can also hurt a player’s ability to get yards after the catch (YAC). This is also reflected in Flowers’s splits. His YAC per reception average fell from 6.6 to 5.2.

Flowers was still an effective receiver, averaging 2.07 yards per route run, but this paled compared to what he averaged in the first nine games (2.57). Not surprisingly, all of these decreases reflected his fantasy football bottom line. He went from averaging 12.3 half-PPR PPG to 7.7. That’s like going from Drake London to Keon Coleman!

Flowers’s 2025 value could get murky if Baltimore adds another receiver this offseason, but as it stands, he should be valued as a WR3. Fantasy managers will need to hope for more consistency. While we can explain the splits, we don’t know why they happened, and that can cause some hesitation. He’s a talented player. That much is clear, but we need all the pieces to get put together.

Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs

When Marquise Brown was injured in the preseason, and we learned the injury would keep him out for the entire regular season, the hype around Worthy became very loud. Unfortunately, he did not capitalize on this until late in the season.

When Rashee Rice got hurt, an even more significant opportunity presented itself, but with that came higher expectations. He has undoubtedly become a more significant piece and influential part of the Chiefs’ offense, but what has that looked like, and what does it mean for 2025?

As you can see from the chart above, almost every statistic has steadily increased. This includes the Chiefs' two playoff games but not Week 18 when most starters did not play. The arrow appears to be pointing up.

The Chiefs have made it a bigger priority to get Worthy the ball. His target rate increased from 17% in Weeks 1-10 to 24% in Weeks 11-18. To do that, they’ve changed how they use him and where they target him. In the first 10 weeks of the season, his average target depth was 12.1. In the final nine weeks, that has decreased to 6.8.

This should raise a slight red flag on Worthy’s breakout prospects for 2025. That’s because Rice will be back, and his average target depth for his career is 4.9. The concern is that what Worthy has done well in the second half of this season is the same thing that Rice does exceptionally.

Xavier Worthy's air yards per target by week from Week 14 on...

Week 14: 4.0
Week 15: 8.5
Week 16: 6.1
Week 17: 0.7
Week 18: Ran one route
Divisional: 1.5
AFC Championship: 6.8

He hasn't taken more than 67% of snaps outside in any of these games. I think that KC has found the… https://t.co/Ubq5OgPRNe

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) January 28, 2025

Worthy’s slot utilization also increased in his second split. That’s another cause for slight concern because Rice was almost used exclusively in the slot the year before. The question becomes, who does what when they’re both on the field?

His performance over the final nine weeks should give fantasy managers optimism for 2025, but keeping things in perspective is important. His splits to end the season are encouraging, but part of his performance could be described as "gimmicky."

However, after the early portion of the season, Worthy was on his way to earning "bust" status. He's undoubtedly taken that off the table with his play over the final part of the year.

His swallow depth of target could help explain the rise in his target rate and target share. His 1.84-yard-per-route run is undoubtedly encouraging and provides hope Worthy will continue his strong play next year. His 12.7 half-PPR PPG is on par with a mid-WR2 performance.

I'm willing to bet that Worthy will be overvalued going into 2025. With Rice's return, Worthy's role could change anything, not necessarily for the better.

D.J. Moore, Chicago Bears

Moore's season with Chicago was far from easy. Caleb Williams was one of the most inaccurate passers in the NFL. He held onto the football too long and was incredibly indecisive. Shane Waldron was a massive disappointment before his firing in Week 11.

At that point, Thomas Brown took over play-calling duties after being promoted to offensive coordinator. He would eventually rise to interim head coach after Matt Eberflus was fired. The change in offensive play-callers proved to be a significant boon to Moore's production.

The first thing you should notice in the chart above is the massive change in Moore's average target depth. It was 10.1 the first 10 weeks of the season before being cut in half following the change in offensive play-caller. Not surprisingly, his catch rate exploded. It jumped almost 18 full percentage points. The thing about Moore is that he's proven he can win and be a high-caliber receiver in any role.

In 2020, with the Panthers, he had a 13.2-yard average target depth and only caught 66 passes. He still finished with 1,193 yards. Their offensive coordinator chose to use Moore in a downfield role. The very next year, Moore's average target depth dropped to 10.6. He responded with 93 catches and 1,157 yards. This time, he won on shorter routes.

Due to Williams's indecisiveness and penchant for holding onto the football, Thomas Brown simplified the offense. He incorporated many bubble screens and quick, one-read throws to encourage and almost force Williams to throw the ball on time.

This allowed them to get the ball into Moore's hands early and often. Moore is one of the more dynamic after-the-catch receivers in the league, and this role enabled him to utilize that skillset.

Moore's target, reception, and yard per game averages increased significantly after the coaching change. With the decreased target depth, Moore's target share and target rate also ballooned. While Moore was an essential part of the offense in Waldron's version of the offense, under Thomas Brown, Moore became a focal point, and they made a concerted effort to involve him as much as possible.

Despite his target depth being cut in half, his yard-per-route run average still increased significantly. It went from 1.22 up to 1.87. Ideally, we'd like to see that number over 2.00, but considering the shoddy quarterback play and a wholly nerfed offense, Moore showcased the kind of talent he is. His 13.7 half-PPR PPG average was slightly below what Chris Godwin averaged (14.1) before his ankle injury.

Moore will have a new play-caller in 2025, but this happens to be Ben Johnson, the former offensive coordinator of the Detroit Lions. He's been the most sought-after assistant coach for years now. He was instrumental in getting Jared Goff to play like a near-elite quarterback. His offensive numbers below speak for themselves.

In his three years as playcaller, Ben Johnson's Lions ranked:

5th in play success rate
3rd in plays per gm
3rd in yards per play
2nd in EPA/play
1st in 3-and-out rate
1st in yards per drive
1st in points per drive
1st in points scored

— #AskFFT (@daverichard) January 22, 2025

Even though Moore will once again have a new playcaller, this one is arguably the best he's had in his career. Fantasy managers should be optimistic that he'll be able to get the most out of uber-talented Caleb Williams.

While Rome Odzune may experience a second-year jump and an increased role, veteran Keenan Allen is unlikely to be back in Chicago, lessening some of the target competition that existed in 2024. Fantasy managers should be bullish on Moore heading into 2025.

He was a top-12 receiver in 2023 with Justin Fields under center. Over the second half of the season, Moore performed as a high-end WR2. Buying Moore as a WR2 will likely be a decision fantasy managers won't regret. He's a highly talented receiver who can win in many ways.

Here's something to think about... imagine a more athletic receiver (Moore) in the same role that Ben Johnson had Amon-Ra St. Brown in. I'm in!

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