Hitters Who Were Disappointments and 2025 Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

January 8, 2025

Dan's biggest hitter busts and disappointments for fantasy baseball, who didn't live up to preseason values. He examines their 2025 fantasy baseball outlooks.

We are roughly halfway between the final out of the World Series and the first pitch of 2025's spring training, but for some, it is never too early to start thinking about the next baseball season. Perhaps your sole focus in fantasy sports is baseball, and you treat it as a year-round endeavor. Perhaps, like me, you balance your year out with fantasy football, and now that it is over, it is time to turn your attention back to the national pastime.

With so many free agents left to sign and spring training still months away, a look back at 2024 might be a more useful exercise than trying to make predictions about 2025. This column will take a look at a handful of hitters who failed to live up to their lofty ADPs last season.

There were plenty of players whose numbers fell short of expectations due to significant injuries. While those players had disappointing results, I will focus instead on those players who managed to stay (mostly) healthy and retain a regular role despite poor production. There will be much more preseason fantasy baseball content coming soon to RotoBaller, so bookmark our MLB hub, give @RotoBallerMLB a follow on X, and read on.

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Julio Rodriguez, OF, Seattle Mariners

Leading off the 2024 bust list is Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez. The 2022 American League Rookie of the Year outdid himself in 2023, posting a 30-30 season with a combined 205 runs and RBI in his sophomore campaign. Such incredible production in his first two years as a pro made him a top selection in 2024 fantasy drafts with an ADP of 3.0.

Unfortunately, Rodriguez did not match his past production in 2024 and burned fantasy managers who spent a first-round pick on him. What Rodriguez returned was another 20-20 season, but this time around produced just 76 runs and 68 RBI. True, Rodriguez was sidelined for a few weeks between July and August, but he still managed 613 plate appearances in 143 games.

For the production offered, fantasy managers would have been better off with Jackson Chourio (ADP 116.7) or breakout stars Brenton Doyle and Zach Neto, who went undrafted in most leagues.

None of Rodriguez's underlying stats dipped drastically enough to suggest a developing hole in his skill set. Rather, his dip in production is likely a symptom of being a piece of a team that produced the 10th-fewest runs and second-lowest team batting average in 2024.

Rodriguez currently carries an early ADP of 13.28, placing him around the turn of the first two rounds. If he continues to slide into the second round of drafts, he will be a solid pick based on his potential to return to being a five-category contributor, especially if Seattle can improve its lineup in the offseason.

Matt Olson, 1B, Atlanta Braves

Matt Olson’s massive 2023 campaign set expectations very high for 2024. In 2023, the Braves first baseman mashed 54 home runs, racked up 127 runs and 139 RBI, and ended the season with a .283 batting average, which were all career highs.

It would have been a stretch to expect Olson to repeat those gaudy numbers, but even 80% of that production would have resulted in 40 homers and 100 runs and RBI in 2024.

Such hopes propelled Olson to an ADP of 13.3, putting him near the turn of the first two rounds in most leagues and in the top three first basemen. Unfortunately, a slow start and a midseason swoon tanked his fantasy production.

Olson had three home runs in Atlanta’s first eight games but then went another 26 games without a long ball and hit .163 with a .503 OPS in that span. He had a similar stretch from June 22 to July 26, recording just one home run and four RBI with a .157/.233/.204 slash line in 29 games.

Olson finished 2024 with 29 home runs, 98 RBI, and 78 runs scored. Excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, those were his lowest totals since 2019 and the first time since 2018 that he finished with fewer than 30 home runs. Fantasy managers could have had similar numbers from Christian Walker, who was available 60 picks later.

The truth of the matter is that Olson has been one of the most consistent performers in MLB over the last several seasons. His HR and RBI totals from 2024 were nothing to sneeze at, but considering his draft capital, he left managers wanting more.

The extended cold streaks that suppressed his 2024 numbers were aberrations that shouldn’t repeat. As of this writing, Olson has an early ADP of 35, making him one of the last of the top-tier first basemen off the board and a decent pickup at the end of the third round.

Only two players in MLB have hit 25+ HR and drove in 95+ RBI in each of the last 4 seasons.

Shohei Ohtani
Matt Olson

The consistency and durability of Matt Olson is so underrated.

— Beaneater Buzz (@BeaneaterB) December 16, 2024

Adolis Garcia, OF, Texas Rangers

We are going to slide down to the third round of 2024 drafts to take a look at our third and final big bust of 2024, Adolis Garcia. Garcia flew up draft boards last season on the heels of a 2023 campaign wherein he hit 39 home runs and racked up 108 RBI. In 2024, the Rangers right fielder had an ADP of 35.3, placing him among the first 10 outfielders off the board.

It wasn’t just the one season that convinced fantasy managers Garcia was gold. It was his second consecutive 100-RBI year and his third with at least 27 dingers. Garcia had only nine steals in 2023 but had 41 over the previous two seasons, leaving room for hope that he could rebound in there and offer solid returns in the counting categories.

Garcia did register double-digit steals again in 2024, but just barely, with 11. Aside from the steals, Garcia posted his lowest numbers in fantasy-relevant categories since becoming a regular player in 2021, to the dismay of those who drafted him.

Garcia’s early ADP of 138.66 is reflective of lingering disappointment and a lack of faith that he will return to his peak performance from two seasons ago. 2024 was bleak, but he will return to the heart of the order in a Rangers lineup that is due for positive regression from top to bottom.

As the 33rd outfielder off the board who will cost a 12th-round pick in 12-teamers, Garcia is a nice buy-low candidate, so long as he can get his batting average back up over .240.

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