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Free NFL betting picks for every Week 16 matchup. Expert analysis and predictions for NFL Week 16. Who should you bet in Week 16? Analysis for every game on the slate.
Hello, football fans! As we head into the home stretch of the regular season, many teams are fighting for divisional titles and playoff spots. Week 16 of the NFL season should be an action-packed slate.
We kick things off with a divisional clash between the Chargers and Broncos on Thursday night. The NFL is also making sure you have plenty of holiday action, as the Week 16 slate features a Saturday doubleheader, before featuring a juicy Sunday schedule and wrapping up on Monday Night Football.
From the good to the bad and the ugly, we'll go through every Week 16 game in this article, offering picks, predictions, and analysis for each and every one. Thanks for joining us here at RotoBaller; let's dive into the slate!
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Denver Broncos 23, Los Angeles Chargers 20 (Thursday Night Football)
We kick off Week 16 with a Thursday night matchup between AFC West rivals. This one could have serious playoff ramifications, as both the Broncos and Chargers are jockeying for position and looking to solidify themselves in the AFC draw.
Broncos (9-5) vs. Chargers (8-6) on TNF 🔥#DENvsLAC – Thursday 8:15pm ET on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/UeeZURTQY2— NFL (@NFL) December 18, 2024
The Chargers beat the Broncos back in Week 6, but now face a Denver squad that's won four in a row, while Jim Harbaugh's bunch has lost three of their last four. Justin Herbert and the L.A. offense have struggled to get much going since losing running back J.K. Dobbins to an injury weeks ago, and I don't love their chances of finding success against a rugged Broncos defense that leads the NFL in sacks and is tied (with the Chargers) for allowing the league's fewest points per game.
Houston Texans 17, Kansas City Chiefs 14 (Saturday)
The outlook for this special Saturday matchup revolves around Patrick Mahomes. As of this writing, the Chiefs' superstar appears questionable at best to suit up against Houston due to a high ankle sprain. With KC facing an ultra-quick turnaround for a Christmas Day matchup, I look for Andy Reid to protect his quarterback in Week 16.
Assuming Mahomes sits, Houston's chances of winning this game (obviously) increase dramatically. The Chiefs would have Carson Wentz under center in Mahomes absence and the former Eagles/Colts/Commanders/Rams turnover machine can't be trusted behind a shoddy Chiefs offensive line that's facing a frisky Texans pass rush. It's tough to pick against KC at Arrowhead, but Houston is a quality opponent that can get the job done without Mahomes in the lineup.
Baltimore Ravens 21, Pittsburgh Steelers 17 (Saturday)
A classic AFC North rivalry, the Ravens enter Week 16 looking for revenge against a Steelers squad that beat them just over a month ago. Pittsburgh limps in off being soundly defeated by the Eagles last week and Mike Tomlin's squad has injury concerns surrounding two key players in T.J. Watt and George Pickens.
If either Pickens or Watt misses, it would be a major blow for the 10-4 Steelers. If both are out, it would be catastrophic against a talented and highly motivated Ravens team. Despite Pittsburgh's surprising dominance over this rivalry - the Steelers are 8-1 against Baltimore since 2020 - Baltimore should find just enough offense behind Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry to pull out a close one this time around.
Cincinnati Bengals 28, Cleveland Browns 16
Despite their disappointing 6-8 record, Bengals superstars Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase have played MVP-caliber ball this year. Cincinnati has also received excellent production from running back Chase Brown, who has evolved into a workhorse back in Zack Moss' absence.
Allowing just over 25 points per game in 2024, the Cleveland defense is far from the dominant unit we saw last year. Add in the team's puzzling decision to bench quarterback Jameis Winston in favor of Dorian Thompson-Robinson - a player who averaged less than four yards per pass attempt in eight appearances last season - and we should see the Bengals climb another game closer to .500.
Atlanta Falcons 23, New York Giants 17
Sitting at 7-7 and still in the NFC South hunt, Atlanta made the surprising announcement that they will start rookie Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback in Week 16. This decision signals that their $180 million offseason investment in veteran Kirk Cousins was likely a very expensive mistake.
BREAKING: Falcons name Michael Penix Jr. starting quarterback. pic.twitter.com/PGSnZ4Nxvo
— NFL (@NFL) December 18, 2024
Luckily for Penix and the Falcons, they draw a Giants squad that's been abysmal by nearly every measure in 2024. New York has been playing musical quarterbacks since the departure of Daniel Jones and as of this writing, it's unclear if it will be Tommy DeVito, Drew Lock, or Tim Boyle under center for the G-Men. Let's be honest...it shouldn't matter in this one, as the Falcons and their home crowd should be energized by the insertion of Penix into the starting lineup.
Detroit Lions 35, Chicago Bears 20
The injuries just keep mounting for Dan Campbell and the Detroit Lions. The 12-2 squad lost at home to the Bills last week, but more notably, lost running back David Montgomery, d-lineman Alim McNeill, and cornerback Carlton Davis to serious injuries. These names are added to an already lengthy list of hurt Lions that includes superstar edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson.
Luckily for Detroit, they draw a soft Week 16 landing spot against a Bears team that is in the midst of an eight-game freefall. Some thought the mid-season firing of head coach Matt Eberflus might spark Caleb Williams and the Bears, but the team actually appears to have regressed in recent weeks, as they come into this one after being outscored a combined 68-25 across their last two. Even in their seriously banged-up state, Detroit will take care of business.
Indianapolis Colts 20, Tennessee Titans 16
It looks as though the Titans have pulled the plug on the Will Levis experiment, as the second-year turnover machine was benched last week and Mason Rudolph has been announced as the starter for this week's matchup against the Colts. It's unclear if Rudolph - who completed 21 of 26 passes for 209 yards, two TDs, and a pick in relief of Levis last week - can spark the long-dormant Tennessee offense, but hey, he can't be much worse.
The Colts repeatedly shot themselves in the foot last week in a road loss at Denver, but this Indy squad has been a better team in the friendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium. Even with Anthony Richardson's effectiveness highly debatable, I look for the Colts to be able to do enough to sneak past the Titans at home.
Arizona Cardinals 28, Carolina Panthers 23
One of the NFL's most unpredictable teams, the Arizona Cardinals travel to Carolina in Week 16 still clinging to playoff hopes, and with a slim chance of stealing a divisional title. A Week 15 win over the Patriots brought the Cards to 7-7 and will have them competing full throttle against a Panthers squad that was routed by the Cowboys last week.
While the improved play of Bryce Young has kept Carolina largely competitive in recent weeks, this Panthers squad is far from being a "good" football team. The Panthers' defense has been sieve-like against the run, relinquishing an NFL-worst 173.0 rushing yards per game. James Conner - fresh off a monster 110-rushing yard, two TD performance against New England - should dominate this juicy matchup.
Philadelphia Eagles 27, Washington Commanders 17
It's hard to win every game in the NFL - just ask the Detroit Lions - but the Eagles show no signs of slowing down. Philly dominated the Pittsburgh Steelers last week for their tenth consecutive victory and will look to stay hot while taking care of some divisional business against the Commanders in Week 16.
The Eagles ignited their long-dormant passing attack last week, but I expect the Philadelphia offense to return to pounding the rock with Saquon Barkley and put another "W" on the board against a Washington defensive front that's relinquishing 189.6 rushing yards per game this season.
Los Angeles Rams 27, New York Jets 24
The Rams escaped a Thursday night slugfest against the Niners in Week 15 and now control their own destiny in the NFC West. They'll need to take care of business against a Jets squad that has long been eliminated from playoff contention but has shown some fight in recent weeks.
Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams put forth a throwback performance in New York's win over the Jaguars last week. Rodgers finished with 289 passing yards and three TDs, while Adams posted 198 yards and two scores on nine catches.
Unfortunately, the Jets' once-vaunted defense has rarely proven themselves to be up to the task in 2024, and with a fully healthy receiving duo of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense should find success.
Minnesota Vikings 24, Seattle Seahawks 20
Minnesota continued its stellar 2024 campaign with a dominant Monday night win over Chicago. The Vikings now stand at 12-2, and with Detroit's Week 15 loss, both the NFC North title and No. 1 seed remain very much in play for Kevin O'Connell's upstart squad.
Head Coach Kevin O'Connell was the landslide winner for Coach of the Year in @TomPelissero's recent survey of NFL executives.
📰: https://t.co/UHOS2DZjNh pic.twitter.com/HNOPI1KurX
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) December 19, 2024
The Vikes have now won seven straight and head to Seattle to face a Seahawks squad that was dominated by Green Bay last week and could be without quarterback Geno Smith. Assuming Smith does suit up in Week 16, he'll face creative blitzes from the aggressive Vikings defense behind an offensive line that's shaky at best. Seattle running back Kenneth Walker III also remains a question mark as of this writing and the 'Hawks might just be too banged up to come out on top against a confident Minnesota group.
Buffalo Bills 31, New England Patriots 14
Ok...what can't Josh Allen do? The MVP frontrunner has gone full "Superman Mode" in recent weeks. Allen has thrown for 704 yards and five TDs - as well as ran for five scores - across Buffalo's last two games.
I don't believe the New England defense possesses any kryptonite to slow Allen's MVP march down this week. While rookie quarterback Drake Maye has been a bright spot for the rebuilding Patriots, his supporting cast leaves much to be desired. Traveling to Buffalo to face a superior team, New England poses little threat to the AFC East champion Bills.
Jacksonville Jaguars 20, Las Vegas Raiders 13
This game gets the undisputed title of Week 16's ugliest matchup. Sporting a combined record of 5-23, the Jags and Raiders are simply playing out the string at this point. Both squads have been forced to play without their starting quarterbacks as of late. While Jacksonville's Mac Jones has his faults, he's certainly superior to Las Vegas' Desmond Ridder.
Jones has been "not terrible" over the last three weeks, throwing for a combined 749 yards since Week 15. He's formed a nice rapport with rookie stud and future superstar Brian Thomas Jr., who should have his way with the Raiders' secondary. Offensively, Las Vegas has little chance of getting anything going as long as Ridder is under center, even against the Jags, who are one of the NFL's worst defensive units.
San Francisco 49ers 21, Miami Dolphins 20
An ugly Week 15 loss to the Rams sent the Niners playoff hopes tanking to less than 1%. It's been a miserable, injury-plagued campaign for a San Francisco team that reached last year's Super Bowl and was expected to once again be a serious title contender in 2024.
The Miami Dolphins have struggled through a similarly dreadful season. At one point this year the Dolphins lost six of seven, an ugly stretch that can largely be blamed on Tua Tagovailoa's trip to Injured Reserve. Miami has been better since Tua's return, but it can't be ignored that their most quality win of the season came against the Rams.
Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins hold a record of 0-5 against teams with better-than-.500 records this year. While the Niners aren't ahead in the win-loss column for the season, they will still be too much for Miami to handle this week.
Tampa Bay Bucs 28, Dallas Cowboys 23 (Sunday Night Football)
The previously lifeless Cowboys have shown some fight while winning three of their last four. However, their most recent loss came at the hands of the Cincinnati Bengals, a team with a high-powered passing attack. They draw a similar Week 16 matchup against the Bucs and a Baker Mayfield-led offense that ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards per game.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield talks about what it means to play in Dallas vs. the Cowboys. pic.twitter.com/aS4wxgBB4R
— PewterReport 🏴☠️ (@PewterReport) December 18, 2024
Despite any incremental improvements they've made over the past month, this 'Boys defense is still hemorrhaging points and yards to their opponents. Dallas ranks 29th in the NFL at 27.1 points allowed per game this year. Fighting for the NFC South title, Mayfield and company have scored 26 or more points in four straight. They should feast on a Cowboys secondary that will now be without Trevon Diggs for the remainder of the season.
Green Bay Packers 27, New Orleans Saints 13 (Monday Night Football)
I'm sure football fans wish Week 16 closed out with a more dramatic matchup on Monday Night Football, but it's the Packers and Saints we'll get. At least there will be fantasy points to sweat, as the game itself is a mismatch on paper that shouldn't be close.
Green Bay comes in off a Week 15 destruction of Seattle. The Packers have been running the ball at an elite level with offseason acquisition Josh Jacobs and should control this game from the outset against a Saints run defense that's getting smashed for 134.4 rushing yards per game on average. As if this wasn't enough of a mismatch, New Orleans will likely be without both Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara for this trip to Lambeau Field.
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