Tight End Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers, Studs and Busts

September 1, 2024

Mike Fanelli provides two tight end studs, two sleepers, and two bust candidates who fantasy football players should draft or avoid in 2024 fantasy drafts.

The 2024 NFL regular season is almost here. That means fantasy football players are rushing to wrap up their last few drafts.

Fantasy players can build a league-winning roster using multiple draft strategies. However, they must draft studs, find sleepers, and avoid bust candidates with whichever strategy they use.

Let’s look at two tight-end studs fantasy players should draft, two sleepers they want to target, and two bust candidates to avoid in 2024 fantasy football drafts.

Fantasy Football Tight-End Studs to Draft

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills

I was a big fan of using the great or late tight-end strategy in 2023, using an early pick on Travis Kelce, or waiting until the double-digit rounds to select one. However, fantasy players shouldn’t pass up Kincaid in the fifth round as the fifth tight end off the board this year.

Buffalo lost its top two pass-catchers from last season’s squad, losing Gabe Davis in free agency and trading away Stefon Diggs. The Bills replaced them with Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel. Both wide receivers have had positive moments during training camp. Yet, Kincaid should take over as Josh Allen’s No. 1 target in the passing game.

The former Utah star was the TE11 as a rookie, averaging 7.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, he averaged 6.9 targets and 10.6 fantasy points per game in the seven regular and postseason games that Davis or Dawson Knox missed with an injury.

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys

Fantasy players had to spend an early round pick at the tight-end position last year to secure an every-week starter. However, that isn’t the case with several plug-and-play tight-end options this season. My favorite mid-to-late round target is Ferguson.

The former Wisconsin star was the TE9 in his first year as the starter, averaging 10.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest. More importantly, Ferguson was Dak Prescott’s clear-cut No. 2 weapon in the passing game. He finished second on the team in receptions (71), targets (102), and receiving yards (761) in 2023.

While Ferguson ranked third in receiving touchdowns (five), the former Wisconsin star broke out in the Cowboys’ playoff loss, totaling 10 receptions on 12 targets for 93 receiving yards, three touchdowns, and 32.3 fantasy points. With Michael Gallup retired and Brandin Cooks on the wrong side of 30, don’t be surprised if Ferguson ranks among the league leaders in targets among tight ends.

Jake Ferguson secures his second TD

📺: #GBvsDAL on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/Ut3BRhC2CE pic.twitter.com/48ikm4GJwE

— NFL (@NFL) January 15, 2024

Fantasy Football Tight-End Sleepers to Target

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers

The 2023 season was one to forget for Freiermuth and fantasy players with him on their team. The third-year player was a popular mid-round tight-end draft pick. Unfortunately, he missed five games and struggled when playing. Freiermuth saw his targets (36.1%) and receiving yards per game (43.9%) significantly drop from 2022 to last year.

However, fantasy players should give him another shot after Pittsburgh swapped out Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky for Russell Wilson and Justin Fields in the offseason.

Furthermore, Arthur Smith taking over as the team’s offensive coordinator is excellent news for Freiermuth. The Atlanta Falcons tight ends averaged a 31.7% overall target share and a 29.3% red-zone target share in 2023.

With Diontae Johnson in Carolina, Freiermuth should be the No. 2 option in the passing game and see the volume needed for a breakout season in the final year of his rookie contract. He is one of my favorite tight ends to draft outside the top nine guys.

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots

Fantasy players should look for two things when looking for a sleeper tight end. They either need to finish first or second on their team in targets or be a touchdown producer. Henry has never been a high-volume tight end, totaling more than 50 receptions in a season only once.

Yet, he had been one of the better touchdown producers at the tight-end position during his time in the NFL. Henry ranked 23rd among tight ends in receptions last year, totaling fewer than Jonnu Smith. However, the veteran had the second-most touchdowns (six), ranking only behind Sam LaPorta despite playing on one of the worst passing attacks in the league.

Jones to Henry and the Pats are on the board!

📺: #PHIvsNE on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/G4uoYVOqQn pic.twitter.com/dfCLxTsQEO

— NFL (@NFL) September 10, 2023

Furthermore, he accounted for nearly 40% of the Patriots’ receiving touchdowns in 2023 despite missing three games. The veteran tight end should quickly turn into a red-zone target for Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye, making Henry one of my top last-round draft targets.

Fantasy Football Tight-End Busts to Avoid

David Njoku, Cleveland Browns

Njoku had the best year of his career in 2023. He set career highs in several categories, including receptions (81), targets (123), receiving yards (862), touchdowns (six), and half-point PPR fantasy points per game (10). However, he was the TE13 in the five contests that Deshaun Watson had at least six pass attempts, averaging 6.3 fantasy points per game.

Joe Flacco to David Njoku for the 34-yard touchdown!

📺: #JAXvsCLE on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/pWMED8SAQa pic.twitter.com/lnKzJ3ojBL

— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2023

By comparison, Njoku was the TE1 in the five games with Joe Flacco under center, averaging 15.2 fantasy points per contest, scoring 13.4 or more in all but one.

More importantly, he had a significantly higher targets per route run rate (29% vs. 17%), air-yards share (15.8% vs. 2.4%), yards per route run (2.48 vs. 1.23), and fantasy points per route run (0.49 vs. 0.23) with Flacco under center compared to Watson (per Fantasy Points Data).

Unfortunately, Njoku won’t catch passes from Flacco in 2024 after the veteran quarterback joined the Indianapolis Colts in the offseason. Meanwhile, Jerry Jeudy’s arrival means there is one more receiver for Watson to target over the veteran tight end.

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles

Goedert is still a talented, starting-caliber NFL tight end. However, his days as a top-12 tight end are likely over. The veteran was the TE14, averaging 7.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last season, totaling only 7.6 more fantasy points than Jonnu Smith. His 7.6 fantasy points per game average was the lowest of his career since his rookie season in 2018.

More importantly, Goedert had three receiving touchdowns, making it the third time in the past four years that he had three or fewer scores. Philadelphia’s passing attack flows through A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, leaving Goedert fighting for targets.

The veteran was 11th in target share (17.7%), ranking behind Zach Ertz, and 18th in target per route run rate (20%) behind Chigoziem Okonkwo among tight ends with at least 40 targets last season (per Fantasy Points Data). Unfortunately, Goedert’s target volume could decline even more with Saquon Barkley and Jahan Dotson joining the team.

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