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Which QBs and TEs are potential fantasy football landmines for 2024? Dave Ventresca identifies four players that you should avoid in the early part of fantasy drafts.
Every fantasy football manager knows the importance of avoiding landmines early in your draft. You can’t win your league on draft day, but you sure can lose it with a few awful picks. It’s what makes navigating the early rounds of drafts so crucial to success.
If you’re considering taking a quarterback or tight end early in your draft, then you’d better be certain they have no potential pitfalls. We see late-round options emerge at these positions every year. If you invest in a quarterback or tight end early, and it doesn’t work out, you’re behind the eight ball right out of the gates.
Make sure you follow RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your fantasy football needs. Here are several early-round quarterbacks and tight ends to avoid in your 2024 fantasy football draft.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Josh Allen - QB, Buffalo Bills
Allen finished 2023 as the overall QB1 and scored a career-high 15 rushing touchdowns.
JOSH ALLEN 52-YARD HOUSE CALL
pic.twitter.com/atJTZR1vLi— Barstool Gambling (@stoolgambling) January 15, 2024
The Bills offense has been revamped for 2024. Last year’s starting wide receivers, Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, are gone. The club signed veteran Curtis Samuel in free agency and selected rookie Keon Coleman in April’s draft. While these additions help offset their losses, it’s hard to say this receiving core is better than last year. That’s a concern right off the bat for Allen.
We also have to factor in Buffalo’s new offensive coordinator. Joe Brady took over play-calling duties last year after Ken Dorsey was fired following a Week 10 loss to the Denver Broncos. Here are some of Allen’s splits from before and after Buffalo made the offensive coordinator switch:
With Ken Dorsey:
| Pass Attempts Per Game | 35 |
| Passing Yards Per Game | 260 |
| Passing Touchdowns Per Game | 1.9 |
With Joe Brady:
| Pass Attempts Per Game | 32.7 |
| Passing Yards Per Game | 242.7 |
| Passing Touchdowns Per Game | 1.4 |
Allen averaged fewer pass attempts, passing yards, and passing touchdowns per game under Brady than he did compared to Dorsey. Brady takes over full-time as offensive coordinator this season. He was committed to running the ball more often, and that is another concern for Allen’s passing output.
We must also consider the possibility that Buffalo scales back Allen’s usage in goal-to-go situations. Last year, Buffalo signed running back Damien Harris in free agency, and Buffalo reportedly did so to avoid running their $258 million signal-caller into the ground.
We never got to see how this situation unfolded as Harris suffered an unfortunate career-ending neck injury. Allen subsequently resumed his role as Buffalo’s defacto goal line back.
The team has third-year back James Cook, who is still in the mix. While he hasn’t been a prolific touchdown scorer, there was a recent quote from Dorsey that suggests the team may be willing to use him around the goal line more often.
The very end of this video has a significant quote. “I feel confident with Jimbo all the way down to that if it’s 3rd and 1, we can give him the football to be able to get a yard”
We were once worried about Austin Ekeler not getting goal line work- that can change fast. If Cook… https://t.co/ExfPUim8RG
— Dave Ventresca (@FF_Stallion) July 30, 2024
The team also selected rookie Ray Davis in the 2024 NFL Draft. Buffalo may have done so intending to use him in the Damien Harris role from last season. It makes sense for Buffalo to ease Allen’s rushing workload as he gets older. Those extra hits take a toll on the body and can hurt a quarterback's longevity.
To be clear, it’s highly unlikely that Allen’s play completely drops off a cliff. He has firmly established himself as one of the top quarterbacks in the league. However, there are enough small concerns that we could see Allen return to his 2018-2019 form rather than what we’ve seen since 2020.
While that would still be productive for fantasy football, it would not be good enough to justify his status as the first quarterback taken in FFPC drafts.
C.J. Stroud - QB, Houston Texans
Stroud burst onto the scene as a rookie last year. He finished as the QB10 in fantasy points per game and genuinely looked the part as a franchise quarterback.
The Buckeye connection from C.J. Stroud to Noah Brown goes for a 75-yard touchdown. pic.twitter.com/qQ9w5hNPrH
— Eleven Warriors (@11W) November 5, 2023
His situation further improved when the Texans acquired former Buffalo Bills receiver Stefon Diggs in a trade. He joins Nico Collins and Tank Dell to form arguably the best receiving trio in the league. This sounds great, but it doesn’t change the fact that Stroud offers very little rushing upside.
For him to make a run at the overall QB1, Stroud would have to finish with close to 5,000 passing yards and 40+ passing touchdowns. It’s within the range of outcomes, but it’s not certain the Texans' offense will go in that direction.
The team acquired former Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon to improve the ground game. The addition of Mixon (and signing him to a contract extension) shows the team wants more out of its ground attack and might not prefer a pass-happy approach.
While we should expect improvement from Stroud in Year 2, the reality is that it’s more difficult for him to yield a profit at his ADP than some gamers think.
Sam LaPorta - TE, Detroit Lions
LaPorta is coming off a fantastic rookie season that saw him finish as the TE1 in half and full PPR leagues.
NFL Highlights (Week 5): Sam Laporta catches his second touchdown of the afternoon after the Detroit Lions open up the trick plays against the Carolina Panthers defense.#NFL #CARvsDET #SamLaporta pic.twitter.com/hK6Cuu7Unq
— Justin David Kish • Sports Journalist (@JustinDavidKish) October 8, 2023
As a result, he is now being selected as the TE1 in fantasy football drafts. While that’s understandable, it might not be the best strategic move from a roster construction standpoint. Let’s compare some of LaPorta's 2023 advanced data (Courtesy of Fantasy Points Data Suite) to a few tight ends going after him in drafts.
Sam LaPorta:
| TPRR (targets per route run) | 26% |
| YPRR (yards per route run) | 1.95 |
| Target Share | 19.5% |
| TPRR | 27% |
| YPRR | 2.15 |
| Target Share | 18.7% |
| TPRR | 27% |
| YPRR | 2.11 |
| Target Share | 20.80% |
The above data shows there is little difference between these three players, and it also suggests that Trey McBride and Mark Andrews might be better. Nonetheless, it confirms they all are equally talented and can easily return a TE1 finish if the cards fall right. If that’s the case, why pay a premium on LaPorta when you can find the same player later in drafts?
Overall, fading Laporta has nothing to do with his talent and everything to do with his cost. He is priced at his ceiling, and there are options later in drafts that give you equal production for a better price.
Dalton Kincaid - TE, Buffalo Bills
After losing starting receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason, it appeared that Kincaid’s role would expand in 2024. While many expect that to be the case, it may not necessarily happen. There are quite a few new additions to the receiving room, and it’s unclear how things will shake out.
Buffalo added the aforementioned Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel this offseason. Third-year pro Khalil Shakir is in the mix for targets as well.
There’s also a lot of overlap between Kincaid, Shakir, and Samuel in terms of usage/where they run their routes. All three players ran over 59% of their routes from the slot in 2023, according to Fantasy Points Data Suite.
The Bills also plan to use rookie Keon Coleman at the X receiver position, but he’s not a strong separator, and such a move may not benefit his skill set. Should the team move Coleman inside in a “big slot” role, that presents even more of an issue for Kincaid.
There’s also the fact that his splits with and without fellow tight end Dawson Knox are concerning.
Data courtesy of Fantasy Points Data Suite
Games with Knox:
| TPRR | 20% |
| YPRR | 1.48 |
| Target Share | 13.3% |
| Air Yards Share | 9.7% |
| PPR Points Per Game | 7.4 |
| Receptions Per Game | 3.8 |
| Receiving Yards Per Game | 35.6 |
Games without Knox:
| TPRR | 23% |
| YPRR | 1.77 |
| Target Share | 19% |
| Air Yards Share | 19% |
| PPR Points Per Game | 13.8 |
| Receptions Per Game | 6.2 |
| Receiving Yards Per Game | 56.2 |
While there’s a path for a Kincaid breakout, it’s a little murkier than some realize. There are better tight ends with fewer question marks available elsewhere in fantasy drafts.
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