Fantasy Football Draft Targets and Avoids - AFC/NFC West

July 8, 2024

Quincy looks at each NFL team in the NFC and AFC West and identifies fantasy football players from each team that managers should be targeting and avoiding in 2024.

The west coast is the best coast and there is a lot of fantasy fun to be had on west coast teams. The NFC West is especially loaded with high-end fantasy options and the AFC West has a few interesting sleepers.

With players in the NFC West such as Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Christian McCaffrey, and DK Metcalf, fantasy managers should be looking at this division for many of their ones and twos at running back and wide receiver. The AFC West boasts players such as Patrick Mahomes and Davante Adams as well.

Let's take a look at some players that could be helpful or harmful to your fantasy team from each team in the NFC and AFC West.

Arizona Cardinals (NFC West)

Target: James Conner

Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner has been a steady contributor throughout his entire career, and certainly during his time in Arizona. In three seasons with the Cardinals, Conner has finished as the RB5, RB19, and RB18.

Conner is headed into his age-30 season and has struggled to stay on the field throughout his career. When Conner does play, he is highly productive. As a Cardinal, Conner has become a key cog in an offense that appears to be improving. In 2023, Conner finished with 1,040 rushing yards and seven touchdowns in 13 games. Conner can also add value through the air and has caught at least 27 passes in each of his three seasons with the Cardinals. While you can likely project that he will miss a couple of games, he should receive a healthy workload.

The Cardinals drafted running back Trey Benson in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft. The addition of Benson may be a blessing for Conner. Benson is a bruising back with great traits to carry a heavy workload. While he won't be the workhorse back on this offense, Benson should help spell Conner and potentially keep him healthy throughout the season.

Possibly the biggest draw to Conner this season is his ADP of RB23. He has beat that ADP in three straight seasons. Barring significant injury, there is no reason why Conner should not be a top-20 running back yet again.

Remembering when James Conner sent Patrick Peterson to the third layer of hell:

pic.twitter.com/O4iyTgANJc

— Donnie Druin (@DonnieDruin) June 28, 2024

Avoid: Marvin Harrison Jr.

How can one avoid the best wide receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson? Simple, if said player is being drafted as a top-10 option at the position as Harrison is, it becomes pretty easy to look elsewhere. This pick has nothing to do with the talent of Harrison and what he can become. Harrison is a second-round pick as the WR9. If Harrison were being drafted as a WR2, then he would not make this list as a player to avoid.

It is difficult to project rookie success in the NFL. Luckily for Harrison, he has an established quarterback and little competition for targets outside of Trey McBride and the running backs. Unluckily for Harrison, the Cardinals' offense is still on an ascension.

Harrison projects to be a top-five to 10 fantasy option one day. The recent success of rookie wide receivers such as Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and Puka Nacua has pushed rookie wide receivers up the fantasy draft board. However, each of those players was drafted (or undrafted) as a gamble play in middle to later rounds. You just never know exactly how things will pan out in a player's rookie season.

With 28 receiving touchdowns and 2.474 yards under his belt over the last two seasons, the college production from Harrison is undeniable. Unfortunately, drafting him at, or potentially above his ceiling in the 2024 fantasy season feels like an incorrect bet.

Los Angeles Rams (NFC West)

Target: Cooper Kupp

Another value at cost, Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp should provide solid value for fantasy teams this fall. Kupp is another player who has suffered from the injury bug throughout his career. When Kupp is on the field, there is no denying his talent and demonstrated ability to produce. Kupp has only played two full seasons in his career (2019 and 2021) and he finished as a top-5 wide receiver in both of them.

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has a special connection with Kupp. With the emergence of second-year player Puka Nacua, Kupp should only have more space to operate.

Kupp was limited to nine games in 2022 due to an ankle injury and 12 games in 2023 due to a training camp hamstring injury. Before his ankle injury in 2022, Kupp picked up right where he left off in his historic 2021 season. He was on his way to a monster season with 812 receiving yards and six touchdowns. In 2023, once Kupp entered to lineup from the IR, he looked like his old self before the hamstring appeared to hamper his ability down the stretch.

It is safe to say that this is not the same old Kupp. The days of the top-five or even top-10 finishes may be behind us. However, Kupp is still a very good NFL player in a good offense. He is currently being drafted as the WR21 which feels like his floor. Kupp often plays out of the slot which should help him age gracefully because of the ease of routes and accessibility for the quarterback.

As long as Stafford is chucking the rock, Kupp should be on your radar in 2024.

Avoid: Kyren Williams

Running back Kyren Williams burst onto the scene in 2023 with Cam Akers falling out of favor with the Rams coaching staff. Williams finished as the RB7 on 1,144 yards and 12 touchdowns in 12 games in 2023. Williams also added three touchdowns and 32 receptions through the air.

Williams is a versatile back who is going to be a significant part of the Rams' offense in 2024. Unfortunately, Williams has only played 22 of a possible 34 games through the first two seasons of his career. Foot and ankle injuries have sidelined Williams for significant amounts of time.

Blake Corum dynasty managers in their league chats giving updates on Kyren Williams’ foot injury. pic.twitter.com/qzWQQc16X2

— TheOGfantasyfootball (@TheOGfantasy) May 23, 2024

The Rams appear to want to make sure Williams does not have to carry a Christian McCaffrey-sized workload. By drafting Blake Corum in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft, the Rams may end up capping Williams' ceiling.

Williams made a living on touchdowns in 2023. If he can stay healthy in 2024, he may very well push for double-digit touchdowns yet again. However, Corum's specialty is scoring touchdowns. The Michigan product scored a ridiculous 58 touchdowns during his four-year career. 45 of those touchdowns came in the last two seasons.

Williams should still lead this backfield and it may not even end up being a full-on committee. However, Corum may eat into enough of Williams' workload to make me wary about Williams' high-end production prospects in 2024.

San Francisco 49ers (NFC West)

Target: Brock Purdy

Let's face it. The most intriguing fantasy target in San Francisco is running back Christian McCaffrey. The inconsistency of George Kittle, the high cost for Deebo Samuel Sr., and the unknown future surrounding Brandon Aiyuk bring into question the reliability of the other 49ers skill players.

Quarterback Brock Purdy is in the perfect draft position. He is not being drafted as a top-five league-winning quarterback. As the current QB10 in fantasy drafts, Purdy is a great bet to fill your quarterback position with a reliable player without paying a premium.

Purdy thrives off of the efficiency of the 49ers offense. As the QB6 in 2023, Purdy threw for two or more touchdowns in nine games. In two of the seven games in which Purdy did not throw multiple touchdown passes, he added a touchdown with his legs.

Purdy is once again in a great position to throw for 30 or more touchdown passes in 2024. He was about as consistent as you could get at the quarterback position. He was not necessarily going to win you your week, but you could count on Purdy to provide steady fantasy points and focus on upside at other positions.

Purdy should once again finish between QB6 and 10. With a full offseason under his belt free from recovering from the UCL tear he suffered during the 2022 NFC Championship Game, Purdy may look even better in 2024.

Brandon Aiyuk kept it 💯 on Brock Purdy:

“The guys can feel his confidence, feel his energy, they can feel the preparation, you can feel it’s real and the talent is real. I can’t say enough about that dude. He’s nice.”

via: @thepivot pic.twitter.com/6DR95coWtI

— Coach Yac 🗣 (@Coach_Yac) June 28, 2024

Avoid: Deebo Samuel

I recently wrote about 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. in my article about players to avoid in the first five rounds of drafts. Samuel is a really good player, but the 49ers' offensive situation is muddy. With Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle in the fold, there are plenty of mouths to feed. Add in Ricky Pearsall, and the fact that the 49ers project to be one of the lower passing volume teams, and there could be trouble for Samuel.

Samuel is being drafted as the WR19 in the third-round range of fantasy drafts. While he is being drafted as a low-end WR2, he is the type of player who could end up as your WR1 if you go running back heavy early.

Samuel finished as the WR3 in 2021 but he has not inspired a whole lot of confidence since then. An injury-riddled WR40 finish in 2022 followed by a WR15 finish in 2023 is nowhere close to what we have seen him accomplish. At this point, it is safe to say that Samuel is a quality fantasy asset, but you need to be ready for inconsistency and the potential for injuries.

Seattle Seahawks (NFC West)

Target: DK Metcalf

Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf is in prime position to elevate fantasy teams in 2024. Metcalf has not reached the heights of his WR7 finish in 2020 in the years since then, but he has actually been a solid player.

Over the last three seasons, Metcalf has finished as the WR14, 16, and 21. His WR7 finish came off the arm of an elite Russell Wilson. From 2021 to 2023, Metcalf was catching passes from Geno Smith and a banged-up Wilson. Smith has turned out to be a quality starting quarterback but he is nowhere near the stud that Wilson was during his MVP-candidate days.

The most intriguing metric about Metcalf is his target rate in the red zone. Over the last three seasons, Metcalf has finished 11th, second, and sixth in total red zone targets. Metcalf profiles as a large touchdown-making machine and the Seahawks know that. Touchdowns do not always remain constant year over year. However, if the targets are there, then there is potential for touchdowns.

Metcalf has already demonstrated that he can score double-digit touchdowns with ease. He is currently being drafted as the WR22 which is behind every fantasy finish since his rookie year. With new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb in town, Metcalf could be in for a monster season.

DK Metcalf pic.twitter.com/fMEZutQjMf

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 23, 2024

Avoid: Tyler Lockett

As a die-hard Seahawks fan, it pains me to say that the good ol' days of wide receiver Tyler Lockett may be behind us. After averaging nine touchdowns per year over the previous five seasons Lockett's touchdown total in 2023 dropped to five. He also failed to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2018.

Lockett's target share remained largely the same in 2023 around 22% but his targets per route run plummeted from 2.07 in 2022 to 1.63 in 2023. You may be quick to point out that the Seahawks offense as a whole took a step back in 2023 which is true. However, DK Metcalf still enjoyed a solid season while Lockett appeared to regress.

Lockett is entering his age-32 season and may have hit an age cliff in 2023. As someone who watches a lot of Seahawks games, this was not the same player we have been accustomed to in past years. Jaxon Smith-Njigba appears ready to take a huge step forward which could relegate Lockett to WR3 status on the Seahawks.

The expected decline of Lockett is reflected in his status as the WR52 in fantasy drafts. While he is cheap to acquire in drafts, he is not necessarily a player you will want on your roster in 2024.

Denver Broncos (AFC West)

Target: Jaleel McLaughlin

Sean Payton loves him a good running back committee and that is probably what we are going to get with Jaleel McLaughlin and Javonte Williams. Samajae Perine is still in the fold as well, but McLaughlin was the most effective back in this backfield in 2023 and likely earned himself more opportunity.

The undrafted young back displayed speed and burst that Perine and Williams simply could not match in 2023. In Williams' defense, he was coming off of a torn ACL, LCL, and posterolateral corner. Williams could and should be better in 2024 but McLaughlin's role will likely grow.

McLaughlin finished with 570 scrimmage yards and three total touchdowns on 112 opportunities in 2023. He finished the season averaging 5.4 yards per carry. If McLaughlin's opportunities rise to the 150-200 range, then he is a player you will want on your fantasy team.

By watching McLaughlin, you can tell that he is a big play waiting to happen. This is an offense that can really only go up in 2024. With 12th overall pick Bo Nix operating in the short passing game, McLaughlin should see his fair share of dump-offs and a handful of carries. He should finish the season as a fine flex option.

Avoid: Courtland Sutton

10 touchdowns, WR35. Yes, Courtland Sutton scored 10 receiving touchdowns and finished as the WR35. That came with an established veteran at quarterback. With Bo Nix on his way in, things should not get better for Sutton.

Sutton and Russell Wilson had magical endzone chemistry in 2023. However, Sutton's catch rate over the last two seasons combined is an abysmal 61.8%. Sutton is a quality NFL wide receiver but he plays a role as a deep threat and has not exactly been in good offenses over the past several years.

Sutton has finished as a top-20 wide receiver once in his career and that came in 2019 when he finished as the WR19. Since then, he has not finished higher than 35th.

It is safe to say that Sutton will not amass double-digit receiving touchdowns in 2024. Nix's college experience should allow him to transition to the NFL more easily than many young quarterbacks, but he does not project to make Sutton better than he has been for most of his career. In fact, Nix could make Sutton worse in 2024. Sutton is cheap in drafts but he is better left on the waiver wire.

via GIPHY

Kansas City Chiefs (AFC West)

Target: Patrick Mahomes

It feels strange to have to put Mahomes on a list like this but the stars are aligning for Mahomes to be an actual value in fantasy drafts in 2024.

Fantasy managers are still feeling the sting of Mahomes' poor 2023 showing. He finished as the QB8, but he did not have the other-worldly weeks that he has come to be defined by, nor did he live up to anyone's expectations. Mahomes is still being drafted as the QB3, but he is being drafted closer to the fourth round whereas he has cost a second-round pick in recent years.

Since he took over as the starter in 2018, Mahomes has only finished outside of the top-five quarterbacks twice. His QB8 finish in 2023 was his lowest in that span and he finished as the QB7 in 2019 due to an injury-shortened season. Mahomes has been about as consistent a fantasy asset as they come.

Mahomes' down year in 2023 was largely due to a lack of touchdowns. He eclipsed 4,000 passing yards but he only threw 27 touchdowns. Except for his injury-shortened year in 2019, Mahomes had thrown for at least 37 touchdowns in every other season as a starter. What is more, Mahomes did not rush for any touchdowns after rushing for at least two in every other season as a starter.

The Chiefs offense was noticeably lacking in 2023. With the additions of Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown and the ascension of Rashee Rice, the offense should start to look more like the Chiefs of old. If Patrick Mahomes is available at the back of the third or beginning of the fourth round then do not hesitate to pull the trigger.

We prefer how you do it QB1 😂 @PatrickMahomes pic.twitter.com/Nf5hdBuuq5

— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) June 30, 2024

Avoid: Marquise Brown

Wide receiver Marquise Brown has given fantasy managers up-and-down fantasy production throughout his entire career. The former first-round pick only has one 1,000-yard receiving season to his name. He has also only exceeded 107 targets once during his five-year career.

Brown is stepping into one of the most potent offenses in the NFL. The Chiefs will also be much more pass-heavy than the Ravens offenses Brown was a part of early in his career. The Chiefs should also be more efficient than the Cardinals offenses of the last two years.

With Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, and Xavier Worthy all in position for huge roles for this offense, Brown feels like he may be coming in to fill the Marquez Valdes-Scantling role. Valdes-Scantling was a situational deep threat for the Chiefs and he played the role well. He ran a lot of routes but did not receive high target volume as evidenced by his 0.74 yards per route run in 2023.

Brown is a far superior player to Valdes-Scantling when healthy. However, the Chiefs offense has evolved into a role-based offense since the departure of Tyreek Hill in 2022. Brown is currently being drafted as the WR37 ahead of Worthy. Worthy is full of untapped potential but he is the better upside play throughout the season. As such, leave Brown alone in 2024.

Las Vegas Raiders (AFC West)

Target: Zamir White

Running back Zamir White was a fourth-round pick in 2022 who barely saw the field during his rookie season. The Georgia product finally got a chance to shine in 2023 when a quad injury sidelined Josh Jacobs for the final four games of the season.

Before Jacobs went down, White only had 20 carries on the season. From Weeks 15 to 18, White averaged 21 carries per game and 99.25 rushing yards. He only scored one touchdown in that span but was involved in the passing game with 3.25 targets per game.

What may be most impressive is that White averaged 4.7 yards per carry behind the same offensive line and in the same offense where Jacobs averaged 3.5 yards per carry.

White's run came in a small sample size. The Raiders also added former Viking Alexander Mattison to the backfield. However, White should be the starter on a team that wants to run the ball. White is also a big back with a 4.40 40-yard dash speed. He has the body to carry a heavy workload and produce throughout the season.

White is currently being drafted as the RB26. Unless Mattison significantly eats into his workload, White should be a quality fantasy asset in 2024 and has serious potential to finish inside the top 20 running backs.

Avoid: Davante Adams

Wide receiver Davante Adams is an absolute joy to watch on the field. His route running is elite and his run after catch ability is special. Unfortunately, Adams has a quarterback problem. Adams is very talented and did not display signs of significant regression on the field in 2023. When your catchable pass rate is 66.9%, you probably are not the problem.

Davante Adams not exactly receiving the world's most catchable targets pic.twitter.com/8GYZFB1FVE

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 26, 2024

Aidan O'Connell appears to have the inside track to the starting quarterback job in 2024. O'Connell was not a bad player in 2023, but he was nowhere near the top half of quarterbacks in the league. He is not someone who inspires a lot of confidence in Adams' ability to produce consistently for fantasy.

Adams finished the season as the WR10 but the road was about as bumpy as the cobblestones of colonial America. Adams' stretch from Week 5 to Week 9 was especially frustrating for fantasy managers when his highest point total was 12.1 in PPR scoring.

1,144 yards and eight touchdowns is an objectively good season from a wide receiver. Considering who we are talking about, it is a serious step back. Adams finished with his lowest yardage, touchdown, and yards per reception totals since 2019 when he missed four games.

As the WR11 in drafts, I want no part of a wide receiver who will be completely unpredictable from week to week. If he were going a couple of rounds later then Adams would be more intriguing but his ceiling feels tapped with either O'Connell or Gardner Minshew II throwing the ball his way. Adams is probably better left off your team in 2024.

Los Angeles Chargers (AFC West)

Target: Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert is one of the best quarterback targets in fantasy drafts in 2024. Herbert is an afterthought and is currently being drafted as the QB14 in double-digit fantasy rounds. Everyone seems to forget that this kid is about as talented as any quarterback in the league.

So what if head coach Jim Harbaugh wants to run the ball? The 49ers have one of the lowest passing rates in the league and one of the most efficient offenses. Most fantasy managers would have been happy to have QB6 Brock Purdy on their roster in 2023.

The same path exists for Herbert. Herbert's weapons are unproven, but with Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman in town, the Chargers should be able to move the ball. Herbert's volume will not even come close to his historic output, but if the efficiency rises, then Herbert's touchdowns could flow and wind up in the 30s once again.

The most intriguing thing about Herbert is his rushing ability. This is a very good athlete who Harbaugh and Roman will likely use in that department. He will not see the same type of rushing output as Lamar Jackson in Baltimore or Colin Kaepernick in the old 49ers Harbaugh days, but he has a chance to push for the five rushing touchdowns that he scored as a rookie in 2020.

This guy was the QB2 just two seasons ago. Injuries and poor coaching have not allowed him to reach those heights since. Herbert is an excellent pick to be your QB1 in fantasy and an even better pick as a QB2 in superflex and deeper leagues.

Avoid: J.K. Dobbins

Running back J.K. Dobbins has one of the most tragic injury stories in the NFL. After bursting onto the scene with a 6.0 average yards per carry in 2020 Dobbins suffered a torn ACL in 2021 and a torn Achilles tendon in 2023. Dobbins was slow to come back from his torn ACL in 2022 but still averaged an impressive 5.7 yards per carry.

Recovering from a torn ACL is one thing but recovering from a torn Achilles does not spell fun times ahead for Dobbins. Dobbins will likely start the year off slowly behind newly signed Gus Edwards. Even once healthy, there is no telling what version of Dobbins we will get.

Dobbins is hyper-talented, we have just never really gotten to see him perform for extended periods. Given his injury history and projected lack of passing game usage, it will be best to look elsewhere in 2024.

JK Dobbins straight up violating his trainer 😂😭 pic.twitter.com/s6cI8ZN9iQ

— Footballism (@FootbaIIism) June 6, 2024

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