June 9, 2024

Denny Hamlin, who currently sits first in the NASCAR playoff standings, will start 25th in Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350. In his two starts in the NextGen car at this track, Hamlin has been disastrous as he is averaging 33.5 for his finish, -28 in place differential, and -12.33 in DraftKings points. Although these results are concerning, this data is somewhat misleading and does not show how solid he is both at this track and on road courses in general. For example, on this track last year, the 20-year Cup veteran was strong throughout the early portion of the race and looked as if he would be battling Martin Truex for the victory. However, an accident on lap 92 damaged his Toyota Camry beyond repair, ending his day prematurely. While an accident cannot be blamed for his 2022 shortcomings at this track, bad days do happen and cannot be held against a driver, particularly one that had five consecutive top-10 finishes here between 2016-2021. In addition to this strong run of top-10s in wine country, he also has 20 top-10s on road courses throughout his career, which ties him for the fourth most of any full-time driver in the series. Because of his proven ability on this style of track and the fact that he is starting from a position that offers significant place differential upside, Denny Hamlin is a driver you will want to have plenty of exposure to this weekend in DFS. In addition to being someone to target in DFS, the No. 11 is also appealing from the sports betting side. Specifically, as of press time, DraftKings Sportsbook has Hamlin at +130 to finish in the top 10, odds that present tremendous value given how well he has performed on road courses throughout his career and at Sonoma in particular. --Adam Erhardt - RotoBaller
Source: Racing-Reference.info