Bust Potential? Avoid These Fantasy Football Running Backs in 2024

June 7, 2024

Top fantasy football running back bust candidates in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Who are potential busts that fantasy gamers should avoid at the running position?

There is no worse feeling than selecting a bust in your fantasy football draft. We all have done so and know the pain, embarrassment, and shame of selecting one in our drafts.

Sadly, busts are part of the game. While knowing who you should draft is critical, it’s arguably more important to know who to avoid. You don’t win your league on draft day, but you can certainly lose it.

Make sure you keep up to date with all your fantasy football needs by following RotoBaller on X and checking out RotoBaller.com. Here are five potential running back busts to avoid in your 2024 fantasy football drafts.

Rachaad White - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

While White enjoyed a strong 2023 en route to a PPR RB4 finish, he graded poorly across numerous key metrics. Among 49 rushers with at least 100 carries, White finished 42nd in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (MTF/ATT), 49th in Next Gen Stats Rush Yards Over Expectation (RYOE), and 43rd in Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) Rushing Grade. He was flat-out bad and just about any metric will tell you that. However, volume was on his side, and White was able to provide fantasy football results despite his extreme inefficiency.

Tampa Bay’s coaching staff has made it clear that they expect White to improve in certain areas in 2024. The club also selected running back Bucky Irving in the fourth round of April’s draft and spoke highly of the rookie’s impressive burst and decisiveness during mini-camp. White might be on a shorter leash this year. If he continues to struggle, it shouldn’t be surprising if the coaching staff looks elsewhere to improve the ground game.

Alvin Kamara - New Orleans Saints

Kamara enters his age 29 season fully entrenched as the team's starting running back. 2023 was another strong season as he finished as the overall RB12 in PPR leagues and was the RB3 in fantasy points per game (PPG).

Alvin Kamara has been putting on a fantasy football clinic in 2023 🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/W07I89EKKN

— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) October 29, 2023

Despite the strong showing, he seems to be a player in decline. Among rushers with at least 100 carries, Kamara finished 40th out of 49 eligible backs in MTF/ATT and 46th in RYOE. He also posted career lows in rushing yards, yards per reception (Y/R), and yards per target (Y/TGT). Kamara still holds value in PPR leagues thanks to his work as a pass catcher. Another strong fantasy finish is possible, but he is on his last legs. As an older back with a declining skill set, the writing appears to be on the wall for the longtime fantasy stalwart. Fantasy players should tread lightly in 2024 drafts.

Joe Mixon - Houston Texans

Mixon was traded from the Cincinnati Bengals to the Houston Texans in the opening days of NFL free agency. He now plays alongside C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Stefon Diggs. While many think this is great news for Mixon's 2024, we may want to pump the brakes a bit.

Despite seeing many light boxes the last two years with the Bengals, Mixon hasn't been able to take advantage. Per Next Gen Stats, Mixon saw 8+ defenders in the box at the 15th-lowest rate last season. Despite this advantage, he only finished 27th in RYOE and couldn't muster more than 4.0 yards per carry. He didn't fare much better against light boxes in 2022, either. According to Sharp Football, Mixon had the highest percentage of his runs come against light boxes in 2022. Among backs with 100+ carries, he was 39th in yards after contact per carry, 34th in runs of 10+ yards, and 36th in yards per carry.

It's also worth questioning whether Mixon is a good fit for offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik's system.

My concern here is the same as it was with Dameon Pierce.

"He's a good runner, but he might not be a great fit for Slowik's Shanahan-influenced outside zone running scheme."

Man / Gap Concept Runs [2022-2023]

Dameon Pierce: 4.05 YPC
Joe Mixon: 4.45 YPC

Zone Concept Runs… https://t.co/b1XPhuajdJ

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) March 12, 2024

Mixon failed to capitalize when seeing light boxes in Cincinnati playing with Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins. There isn't anything to suggest Mixon will take advantage of a similarly favorable situation in Houston. He also turns 28 this summer. We can't completely rule out his play falling off a cliff. If that happens, given his career 4.1 YPC, we could be looking at a disaster season in the worst-case scenario. It's better to pass and let someone more bullish take Mixon.

D’Andre Swift - Chicago Bears

The Chicago Bears began their offseason by signing Swift to a three-year, $24 million contract. 2023 was a career year for him. He accumulated over 1,200 scrimmage yards and eclipsed the 1,000 rushing yard mark for the first time in his career.

D’ANDRE SWIFT TOUCHDOWN
pic.twitter.com/iCIwgD4UX8

— Barstool Philly (@BarstoolPhilly) December 26, 2023

While Swift’s surface-level stats look good, the underlying metrics paint a different picture. Swift finished only 40th in RYOE. Among running backs with at least 65 carries, Swift finished 36th in Elusive Rating and only ranked 39th in PFF’s Rushing Grade. Looking at this data, it’s unclear that Swift is even the best running back on the Bears roster. Backmate Khalil Herbert graded higher than Swift in every one of the above metrics. Herbert finished 10th in Elusive Rating, 20th in RYOE, and was PFF’s 15th highest-graded rusher. It’s not unreasonable to suggest he could eventually emerge as the preferred back.

There is precedent for a team turning away from a back after signing him to a big contract. Just last year we saw the Carolina Panthers bench starter Miles Sanders in favor of Chuba Hubbard after they inked Sanders to a four-year, $25.4 million deal. If Swift struggles, or injuries plague him, don’t be surprised if Herbert or someone else can wrestle the starting job away.

Kyren Williams - Los Angeles Rams

One of last season’s fantasy MVPs, Williams' value took a hit when the Rams selected Michigan back Blake Corum in the third round of the NFL Draft. Corum was one of the most productive backs in college football and he presents an immediate threat to Williams’ spot atop the depth chart.

.@RamsNFL @UMichFootball @blake_corum joins @Kyrenwilliams23 what a great 1-2 punch behind a vastly improved OL. #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/2bWACCWCCe

— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) April 27, 2024

Williams had an incredible 2023. The Rams had a front-row seat and still felt the need to draft Corum. GM Les Snead has admitted the team overworked Williams last year, and that they see many similarities between the two backs. It was also reported the Rams were looking to trade their third-round pick until they saw Corum falling to them. It’s hard to believe the Rams would draft a back like Corum only to have him sit on the bench.

Williams has also struggled with injuries throughout his career, and he is already missing OTAs this year with a foot injury. McVay has said Williams will be a full go for training camp, but his injury is giving Corum valuable time with the first team. Should Williams ever miss extended action, it will leave the door open for the rookie.

At the very least, we should not expect Williams to maintain his 21.3 PPR points per game (PPG) pace from last year. It’s unlikely that Corum immediately takes over the starting gig, but this situation could morph into a timeshare. At the end of the day, Williams is still a running back with Day 3 draft capital. These rushers are almost always replaced by a more talented back with higher draft capital. It might only be a matter of time until Corum takes over this backfield.

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