Three Fantasy Football Tight Ends You Must Draft in 2024 - Part II

Three fantasy football tight ends every manager must draft. Rob's second entry where he lays out his case for why they will end up outplaying their current ADP in 2024.

The tight-end position has been getting more love this offseason than in years past. There appear to be at least 10-12 solid starters, with a few more names that could pop up this season. It's deeper than it's been in years. Also, the top of the position has fallen a bit. Travis Kelce may still be the cream of the crop, but with his increased age, the incredibly high ceiling he's possessed in recent seasons doesn't seem as realistic anymore. Simply put, the position has gotten way more competitive.

This is the second and final entry into this short series focusing on tight ends that fantasy managers must draft this season. We haven't touched on the big four but have identified a few tight ends with the potential to unseat one of those big four this season. We'll touch on another candidate in this entry. We've also highlighted some later-round tight ends with the upside to surprise this season.

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Editor's Note: Stay on top of your draft prep with RotoBaller’s fantasy football rankings, featuring expert analysis, ADPs, and draft insights for both PPR and non-PPR leagues.

Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars

Engram is currently being drafted as the TE8 in best ball on Underdog and half-PPR redraft on Yahoo! When you look at the seven tight ends ranked above him, it's hard to get Engram too much higher than where he currently sits, but that doesn't mean he should be ignored at his current cost. Engram has the potential and upside to finish inside the top four with the big names of Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, and Mark Andrews. Don't believe it? Look at his statistics from last season below.

• 143 targets (first among tight ends)
• 114 receptions (first)
• 963 yards (third)
• 23.8% target share (second)
• 23.7% target rate (seventh)
• 414 slot snaps (first)
• 97.4% route participation (second)
• 716 air yards (sixth)
• 269 unrealized air yards (eighth)
• Eight deep targets (third)
• Five end-zone targets (12th)
• 16 red-zone targets (12th)
• Four total touchdowns (12th)
• 1.60 yards per route run (ninth)
• 1.56 yards per team pass attempt (fifth)
• 10.4 half-PPR PPG (sixth)
• 10.6 expected half-PPR PPG (third)

His expected half-PPR PPG average just last season was third; quite honestly, there's potential for even that to increase. The Jaguars lost Calvin Ridley in free agency this offseason and drafted Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round of the NFL Draft. Ridley had 136 targets, 76 receptions, 1,016 yards, and eight touchdowns.

Is a rookie receiver going to walk in and duplicate those seasons in Year 1? Most likely not, although it is possible, which makes Thomas another player to buy this offseason. What makes Engram even more interesting is this -- Ridley had 40 red-zone and 25 end-zone targets last season, which led the NFL.

When we look back up at Engram's elite statistics from 2023, there's one specific area he lacked: touchdowns. He had just 10 red-zone targets and just four total touchdowns. What if some of Ridley's usage in the end zone shifts to Engram? What if instead of just five end-zone targets, Engram has 10 or 15? What if Engram finishes with seven touchdowns or eight instead of four? Given his utilization everywhere else, are those questions outrageous? Absolutely not! He had a 23.8% target share, for crying out loud, and 143 total targets.

Evan Engram is coming off a 114-reception/143-target season (2nd most receptions by a TE in NFL HISTORY).

He averaged the same PPG in 1.5 TE-premium as AJ Brown (16.9 PPG).

& the Jags RD1 WR (Brian Thomas Jr.) saw more than 10 targets just once in his 37-game, 3-year collegiate…

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) May 7, 2024

Engram has one of the most fantasy-friendly roles among tight ends, given his elite target share, number of slot snaps, and route participation. He's on the field all the time. He never blocks, and he's routinely targeted. With the loss of Ridley, there's no reason to think that should change this season.

Engram and fantasy managers only need him to outplay his current ADP for his touchdown numbers to come up. Even without the number of red-zone and end-zone targets Ridley left behind, we'd expect that anyway, just due to progression based on his overall utilization metrics. However, given just how much red-zone and end-zone work Ridley did leave behind, progression in the touchdown department seems all but guaranteed.

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys

Ferguson is currently being drafted as the TE10 in half-PPR redraft leagues on Yahoo! and TE11 in best-ball formats on Underdog. Given the moves, or rather lack thereof, that the Cowboys made this offseason, Ferguson is another tight end fantasy managers should be buying.

He finished last season as TE9 with an 8.3 half-PPR PPG average. However, like Engram, Ferguson had the potential for many more touchdowns based on his utilization. Banking on improvement in the touchdown department isn't always the best science, but Engram and Thomas finished as top-10 options the year before with poor touchdown luck.

Expecting some regression to the mean in a positive direction isn't outrageous thinking. Not to mention, when it comes to the tight-end position, touchdowns are a big part of their scoring. Let's look at some of the statistics Ferguson put down last season.

• 102 targets (seventh among all tight ends)
• 16.9% target share (16th)
• 20.0% target rate (17th)
• 275 slot snaps (11th)
• 511 routes run (third)
• 83.2% route participation rate (11th)
• 71 receptions (ninth)
• 761 yards (eighth)
• 520 air yards (16th)
• 1.49 yards per route run (15th)
• 7.5 yards per target (15th)
• 10.7 yards per reception (13th)
• 1.24 yards per team pass attempt (13th)

As you can see, Ferguson isn't exactly blowing away the competition regarding his efficiency. He's a solid player; nothing more, nothing less. However, he has an extremely attractive situation. He received 24 red-zone targets, the third most among tight ends, and the ninth-most end-zone targets, tied for second most. Despite having the seventh-most targets, third-most red-zone targets, and second-most end-zone targets, Ferguson finished tied for seventh with just five touchdowns. Based on his utilization, his expected touchdown total was seven.

Ferguson was Dallas's second-leading target earner, besting Brandin Cooks by 21. He was second in receptions and yards, finishing with 17 more receptions and 104 more yards than Cooks. Cooks is another year older now and will turn 31 in September. He's coming off of back-to-back seasons with fewer than 700 yards. He averaged just 41.1 yards per game last season, well below his 62.7 career average. Last season, Cooks was having lunch here and there with Father Time, but for the 2024 season, Father Time has officially moved in. Dallas's No. 3 receiver is third-year player Jalen Tolbert. He had 268 yards in 2023. Ferguson is all but locked in to be Dak Prescott's No. 2 target-earner in a really big way this season.

Not only that, but we could see Dallas become even more pass-heavy this upcoming season. Last year, it finished with the eighth-most pass attempts, third-most yards, and the most passing touchdowns. It lost Tony Pollard in free agency this offseason and replaced him with Ezekiel Elliott. Rico Dowdle and Zeke will be the team's primary running backs this season. Over the past three seasons, these two players have combined for 2,905 yards on 748 carries, roughly a 3.9 yard-per-carry average. Granted, Zeke accounts for 95% of that, but Dowdle wasn't much better last year, averaging just 4.1 yards per carry. With a backfield deprived of talent in such a big way, the offense may be forced to lean on Prescott and the passing game even more heavily this year than they did last.

Tyler Conklin, New York Jets

Okay, I admit this one is out there, but give me a chance here. Conklin is currently being drafted as the TE24 on Yahoo! and the TE24 on Underdog. He's free. Completely free. Now, get this... over the past two seasons, Conklin has the ninth-most targets, eighth-most receptions, and 10th-most receiving yards among all tight ends.

Sure, his receiving yards per game average drops him to 17th among 37 tight ends with at least 70 targets, but even that is significantly better than his current ADP suggests. Certainly, when he considers who his quarterback has primarily been, the lack of fantasy production begins to make sense. There have been 45 quarterbacks to attempt at least 300 passes since 2022. Here's where Zach Wilson ranks in just a few statistical categories out of those 45:

• 45th Completion Percentage (57.9%)
• 26th in Interception Rate (2.3%)
• 43rd in TD Rate (2.3%)
• 33rd in Yards Per Attempt (6.5)
• 37th in Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (5.9)
• 34th in Yards Per Game (188.5)
• 33rd in On-Target Rate (73.4%)
• 39th in Off-Target Rate (19.4%)
• 44th in Quarterback Rating (75.4)
• 44th in Success Rate (37.0%)
• 41st in Sack Rate (10.16%)
• Since 2022, the Jets have the second-fewest passing touchdowns in the league with 26.
• Since 2022, the Jets have the 10th-fewest passing yards in the league with 7,413.

The Jets will welcome back Aaron Rodgers this season. The difference between Rodgers and what the Jets have trotted out there at quarterback the past two seasons is going to be substantial, and quite honestly, that may not even be doing it enough justice. Rodgers' career completion percentage is 65.3%, 7.4 percentage points higher than Wilson's last two seasons. His 6.2% career touchdown rate is almost triple that of Wilson's. His career yard-per-attempt average is 1.2 yards better. His quarterback rating is 28.2 points higher. I mean, the difference is vast.

Remember where Conklin ranked the past two seasons in targets, receptions, and yards among tight ends? Top 10 in all three categories. Well, he's tied for 41st in touchdowns with three. He's tied with Jimmy Graham. Since 2022, Conklin has the 19th-highest full-PPR PPG average at 7.49 among 37 tight ends with at least 70 targets.

Imagine if he catches a few more touchdowns. What if Rodgers leads to Conklin getting just a few more receptions and yards? That really should be the expectation, which makes it very likely Conklin can outplay his current TE24 ADP. Now, that won't make him a league winner. He's not going to be a top-12 tight end, but could he be a solid TE2? That's in his range of outcomes.

Certainly, the Jets have added increased competition with Mike Williams in free agency and third-round rookie Malachi Corley. However, Williams is coming off a torn ACL and has recently struggled to stay on the field. It's possible, maybe even likely, that Williams isn't ready for the beginning of the season. Corley is a third-round rookie out of Western Kentucky and will transition to a significant increase in talent competition. There's no guarantee either player is ready to produce consistently this season. If either or both falters, Conklin could provide a nice positive return on investment for fantasy managers.

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