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Analysis of five relief pitcher or closer fantasy baseball targets to draft in the mid rounds. Potential 2024 fantasy baseball sleepers and undervalued RP or CL to target in drafts.
Welcome officially to the 2024 fantasy baseball season! Spring training is in full force, and fantasy managers are gearing up for another exciting season in MLB. Once you reach the middle rounds of drafts, everyone is looking to draft players who can provide a great return on value. You can start taking calculated risks on emerging prospects, overlooked veterans, players returning from injury, or even players with some playing time concerns out of the gate. The early rounds are critical, and the late rounds are where you can take your chances on dart-throw sleepers, but the middle rounds can make or break your roster.
Today, we're looking at some middle-round relievers for you to consider drafting in your season-long leagues this season. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and become a priority mid-round draft target? Read on to see our take.
Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Usually only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2024 Draft Kit. Be sure to subscribe today to start reading all of our in-depth 2024 player outlooks and many other premium articles and tools, including Team Sync, the Live Draft Sync assistant, Custom Rankings Service, and so much more -- available exclusively in our 2024 Draft Kit.
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Tanner Scott, Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins closer Tanner Scott had an excellent 2023 season and ended up as the team's closer. The 29-year-old went 9-5 on the season, converting 12 of 16 save opportunities with a 2.31 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 33.9% strikeout rate in 78 innings pitched. Scott's lively fastball and devastating slider have always led to impressive strikeout numbers, but walks have historically been his issue. However, he was able to wrangle them in, posting a career-low 7.8% walk rate compared to a 12.7% career average. He also did an excellent job limiting hard contact for the second consecutive season.
Scott is currently being drafted at about pick 137 overall in March, making him the 15th closer off the board. Perhaps there are questions about job security, but the job seems to be Scott's going into 2024 based on how manager Skip Schumaker handled games to the end of 2023. Scott offers some of the best strikeout upside among closers, which makes his current ADP surprisingly low. If he can produce like he did in 2023 throughout a full season, he will end up being a draft steal.
-- Connelly Doan - RotoBaller
Ryan Helsley, St. Louis Cardinals
After spending the first three years of his career as a strict middle reliever and setup man, St. Louis Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley burst onto the scene with a dominant 2022. Once the calendar turned to May that year, Helsley overtook the struggling Giovanny Gallegos as the closer, firing off 16 1/3 scoreless innings before allowing his first earned run.
The right-hander's All-Star campaign was enough to set him up as St. Louis's favorite for saves entering 2023, but he faced far more adversity. Starting the year with a blown save on Opening Day, Helsley later hit the injured list on June 10 due to a strained right forearm that would ultimately sideline him for nearly three months all the way up until Sep. 1 amid a lost Cardinals season.
After attaining a pristine 1.25 ERA in the season prior, the 29-year-old carted a far inferior 3.24 ERA to the shelf but ended the campaign looking like his 2022 self with a 0.77 ERA and seven saves over his final 11 2/3 frames. All told, Helsley put together a 2.45 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 52:17 K: BB, and 14 saves across 36 2/3 innings of work in 2023.
What version of Helsley shows up in 2024 remains to be seen, but it's not big enough of a question mark to unseat him as a top-12 reliever in fantasy drafts. A bigger question mark for Helsley is perhaps his ability to keep his throwing arm healthy; a stress reaction in his right elbow in August 2021 would end his season prematurely and a right shoulder impingement would cost him over a month of action back during 2019.
The flame-throwing Helsley consistently touches 100 mph on the gun with his fastball, and although he didn't qualify in most Statcast rankings, Helsley's .157 expected batting average and 35.6% strikeout rate were unreal marks. Among the most talented at his position in 2024, Helsley should be treated as a high-risk, high-reward closer, but you're unlikely to need to spend a top-100 pick to land him.
-- Joseph Barbati - RotoBaller
Clay Holmes, New York Yankees
New York Yankees relief pitcher Clay Holmes had an up-and-down season last year but enters 2024 as the clear favorite to close games for the Yankees. Overall, Holmes' final numbers were quite good. The hard-throwing righty converted 24-of-29 save chances, whiffed 71 batters, and pitched to a tidy 2.86 ERA across 63 innings.
The issue for fantasy was the roller coaster ride Holmes took to get to those numbers. He was inconsistent and removed from the closer's role amid a putrid August that saw him allow nine earned runs in 10 1/3 innings (7.84 ERA).
Aside from that stretch, however, Holmes was mostly effective as he allowed no more than four earned runs in any other month and found his form down the stretch, as he pitched to a 0.75 ERA with a .122 batting average against across 12 pristine innings to finish the season.
Holmes certainly has the tools to be a top-flight closer, as his 27.1% K rate and 30.9% called-plus-swinging strike rate helped him average well over a strikeout-per-inning. If he can retain the closer job all season, Holmes should get plenty of save chances and the ability to finish as a top-10 RP in fantasy.
The inconsistency, however, is a concern, and we've seen manager Aaron Boone pull Holmes from the closer role if he starts to struggle. Huge save and strikeout upside makes Holmes an intriguing yet risky pick as the 17th reliever off draft boards, per RotoBaller's relief pitcher rankings.
-- Mike Schwarzenbach - RotoBaller
Evan Phillips, Los Angeles Dodgers
Evan Phillips emerged as the Dodgers closer in 2023, and it's easy to see why. After posting a 1.14 ERA in 2022 (63.0 IP), Phillips had a 2-4 W-L record, 2.05 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 66 Ks, and 24 saves (61 1/3 IP) last year. Entering the season, there were concerns that Phillips would be in a job share or lose the role to Daniel Hudson when he returned from the IL.
Hudson ended up pitching three innings all year and Phillips dominated in the role. His 3.37 xFIP and 3.08 SIERA suggest we will see regression in 2024. But he also had a 2.72 xFIP and 2.34 SIERA in 2022, so that's now two consecutive years in which he's outperformed his underlying numbers.
His excellent strikeout and walk numbers also help. Phillips' 28.2% K% ranked in the 83rd percentile, while his 5.6% BB% ranked in the 88th percentile. His 22.6% K-BB% ranked 23rd among the 162 qualified relievers, and those numbers provide a solid floor. Phillips once again finds himself being drafted outside the top tier of closers. And once again, he is set to reward fantasy managers who draft him.
-- Jamie Steed- RotoBaller
Pete Fairbanks, Tampa Bay Rays
Despite two IL stints last year, Pete Fairbanks still managed to set a career high with 45 1/3 IP. The results were outstanding, with a 2-4 W-L record, 2.58 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 68 Ks, and 25 saves. It should come as no surprise that the strikeouts and saves were both career highs as well. Over the last three seasons, Fairbanks has only totaled 112.0 IP but has a 2.65 ERA and amassed 162 Ks. His ERA isn't lucky either, as Fairbanks had a 2.83 xFIP and 2.82 SIERA last year and a 2.83 xFIP and 2.75 SIERA since 2021.
Fairbanks also seemed to do the impossible and emerge from the Rays bullpen as the leading closer. His 25 saves were more than twice as many as the next reliever (Jason Adam with 12 saves). Following his activation off of the IL for the second time on June 15, Fairbanks accounted for 20 of the 24 saves the Rays bullpen tallied until the end of the season.
There's no reason to believe he won't be the main closer in Tampa Bay for the 2024 season, providing Fairbanks can keep off the IL. He is certain to outperform his ADP and could be a top-five fantasy reliever.
-- Jamie Steed - RotoBaller
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