Predicting 2024 NFL Season Award Winners - MVP, Offensive Rookie of the Year, and more

March 5, 2024

Griffin gives his early predictions for the 2024-25 NFL award winners: MVP, OPOY, DPOY, OROY, and Coach of the Year. Who will rise to claim the top spot in each category?

With the 2023-24 NFL season behind us and the Kansas City Chiefs securing another Super Bowl victory, all eyes are on the upcoming 2024-25 season. Speculation fills the air as teams prepare for the draft, navigate free agency, and ponder potential trades, wondering who will shine on the field in the coming year.

Yet, with the offseason only just beginning, much remains uncertain. Coaching changes have shaken up the league, with eight head-coaching vacancies filled by new hires, and numerous coordinator shifts adding to the mix. 

Amid the speculation and unknowns, anticipation for the upcoming season's awards, including Most Valuable Player, Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year, and Coach of the Year, is already building. Let's make some early bold predictions, highlighting both my top choices and the best value picks for the awards this season.

2024 Most Valuable Player Award

The MVP award has clearly evolved into a quarterback-centric honor, with the past 11 recipients all being quarterbacks. Since 2000, only four winners have emerged from other positions. Another noteworthy trend to consider when placing these bets is the performance of the quarterback's team; in the last seven instances, the winning quarterbacks have led their team to at least a top-two record in the league.

Hence, it's imperative to recognize the outcome typically favors a quarterback from one of the NFL's top teams. In the closing stages of this past season, favorites such as Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy briefly appeared, only for Lamar Jackson to ultimately secure the award. All three of these quarterbacks led teams to a top-two finish in the NFL standings (49ers and Cowboys tied for second).

PICK: Joe Burrow (+900 on DraftKings, +1000 on FanDuel)

My favorite pick to win the MVP award this upcoming season is Joe Burrow. When Burrow is healthy and on the field, he undoubtedly ranks among the top-three quarterbacks in the league. With a 5-1 record against Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in his career, he has shown his ability to compete with the best.

What sets Burrow apart as a strong contender for this accolade is not only his exceptional performance at his position, but also the potential of his team. The Bengals are currently ranked sixth in terms of favorites to win the Super Bowl this coming season and fourth in the AFC. Following a challenging season where Burrow sustained an injury in Week 11 against the Ravens, they are poised for redemption.

A collection of Joe Burrow’s best throws of the season. Still among the elite quarterbacks in the NFL. pic.twitter.com/E1alQiOBw4

— Kendell Hollowell (@KHollowell_) February 27, 2024

The Bengals' window to win appears to be now, given that many of their offensive weapons are in the final years of their contracts. Tee Higgins has just been franchise tagged, Joe Mixon has one year remaining, and while Ja'Marr Chase is likely to remain with the Bengals long-term, he currently has two years left on his contract.

This suggests that the Bengals are in what feels like a Super Bowl or bust scenario, especially considering they were just a win away two years ago. With a roster similar to the previous season, they aim to return to the Super Bowl again and have a strong chance to achieve it.

However, the MVP is only a regular-season award, so the Bengals just need to finish near the top of the standings and Burrow will certainly be in the MVP conversation. Assuming he remains healthy and the Bengals regain their form, Burrow could secure his first NFL MVP title.

Best Value: Jordan Love (+1200 on DraftKings, +1400 on FanDuel)

It pains me to write this as a Bears fan, but once again, the Packers have seemed to discover their next amazing quarterback in Jordan Love. Love's performance was outstanding this past season. In fact, I was strongly considering him as my favorite pick for MVP over Burrow.

However, I do think he's better suited as a value play, considering his youth and the increased defensive attention he'll face in his second full season. Leading the Packers, presumably in a rebuilding phase, to an NFC Divisional Round game in his debut season as a starter speaks volumes about Love's potential.

Moreover, in his first playoff appearance, he displayed remarkable composure against the league's top pass rush, delivering three touchdowns, a 157.2 passer rating, and securing a decisive 48-32 victory over the Dallas Cowboys.

Jordan Love's 2nd half of the season rankings across the league:

- Passing TDs (18) - #1
- TDs (20) - T-#1
- Passing yards (2,238) - #1
- Completions (183) - #3

I think the narratives are over. The #Packers starting QB has proven he can play some serious high level football. pic.twitter.com/7ZQCFlJVB3

— Kyle Malzhan (@KyleMalzhan) January 2, 2024

Love's second half of the season could serve as a preview of what's to come, as he led the league in key stats: total touchdowns (20), passing touchdowns (18), and passing yards (2,238). Additionally, he finished the second half tied for third in completions with 183.

Once Love found his rhythm, he was a very difficult player to plan for defensively. Another exciting aspect concerning Love and the Packers is the potential return of all their wide receivers next season. With the oldest receiver on their roster being 26 years old and many displaying immense potential, this will only aid Love's development as a passer.

These factors lead me to believe that the Packers are in store for another successful season, building upon their achievements from last year. I anticipate them finishing among the top five in the NFL standings, and should that happen, it's likely attributable to Love, positioning him well for his first MVP trophy.

2024 Offensive Player of the Year Award

As the MVP continues to be predominantly awarded to quarterbacks, the Offensive Player of the Year accolade has shifted to become more focused on skill players. In the last five instances, the recipients have either been a running back or wide receiver, with only one quarterback clinching it in the past seven seasons.

While there remains a possibility for a quarterback to secure the award, the odds are slim, evident in the fact that oddsmakers list 11 options for running backs and wide receivers before the first quarterback is mentioned. Additionally, it's worth highlighting that the past five winners have led their respective positions in yards gained. Therefore, it's crucial to target a player whom you anticipate will have ample opportunities to accumulate a substantial amount of yards. 

PICK: CeeDee Lamb (+850 on DraftKings, +900 on FanDuel)

Despite the daunting competition presented by Christian McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill, I strongly believe that CeeDee Lamb stands a good chance of clinching the award this season. With a league-leading 135 receptions and a second-place finish in receiving yards (1,749) last season, Lamb continues to elevate his game each year and has firmly established himself as one of the top receivers in the league.

On top of that, he amassed eight 100-yard games and seven games with at least 11 receptions throughout the season, showcasing his ability to deliver breakout performances consistently. As highlighted above in the award breakdown, it's important to target someone who will get a ton of opportunities and has the potential to lead the league in their position.

Lamb fell just 50 yards short of achieving that feat last season while leading the league in targets (181) and receptions (135). He will remain a focal point of the Cowboys offense moving forward, especially considering head coach Mike McCarthy is back for another season and he often highlighted the importance of getting Lamb the ball.

CeeDee Lamb: The most valuable WR in the NFL last season pic.twitter.com/Ety9F1U8KV

— PFF (@PFF) February 25, 2024

Another aspect to consider when selecting Lamb over the top-two contenders is the likelihood of his success being replicated compared to theirs. That may seem a bit surprising, given the talent of both of those players, but hear me out.

McCaffrey missed only one game (sat out Week 18) this past season, a departure from his previous four seasons where the most he played was 11. While I'm not wishing for CMC to suffer any injuries -- I'm a huge fan of his -- it's simply worth noting his past durability issues, especially considering how extensively he's utilized in the 49ers offense.

As for Hill, he's generally less prone to injuries, so that's not a factor to consider. However, it's worth mentioning that Jaylen Waddle missed five games last season and could have had a more significant impact on their offense, detracting from Hill's stats had he been available. Additionally, Miami boasts a very strong backfield with Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane, and they are likely to have a higher rate of rushing plays compared to the Cowboys. The Cowboys finished tied for first in passing attempts per game with 37.4, while Miami finished 18th with 33.6. It's hard to fade CMC and Hill, but if anyone can surpass them, it's CeeDee Lamb.

Best Value: Puka Nacua (+3000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel)

Puka Nacua's debut NFL season stands as one of the most remarkable performances by a rookie wide receiver in league history. He rewrote the record books, amassing an impressive 105 receptions and 1,486 receiving yards, setting new standards for rookies. Despite it being his first season, he clinched the fourth spot in total receiving yards, trailing only Hill, Lamb, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. He also ended the season tied for sixth in receiving targets with 160.

Huge props to Puka Nacua, from 5th-round pick to one of the greatest rookie WRs in NFL history:

- Broke the rookie receptions record (105)
- Broke the rookie receiving yards record (1,486)
- Broke the rookie receiving yards in a playoff game record (181)
- Eight 100+ receiving… pic.twitter.com/vNHePyWwF3

— NFL (@NFL) January 15, 2024

While some may argue that Nacua's success was partially due to Cooper Kupp's early season absence, the stats tell a different story. Even after Kupp's return, Nacua continued to outshine him in targets (108 to 95), receptions (66 to 59), and yards (985 to 727).

Given Kupp's struggles with hamstring and ankle issues throughout much of the season, it's difficult to assess his performance accurately. However, based on what we've seen, it appears that Nacua could emerge as Matthew Stafford's primary target moving forward.

Even with Kyren Williams stepping up, the Rams' 13th rank in passing attempts per game underscores their commitment to a high-volume passing offense, especially with veteran quarterback Stafford at the helm. This bodes well for Nacua to build on his outstanding debut season, making him a worthwhile bet at the current odds offered by sportsbooks.

Honorable Mention: Breece Hall (+3500 on DraftKings, +4000 on FanDuel)

Telling yall now

2024: I will be a Top RB
I Will be in the Pro Bowl
I Will be an All Pro

And it will continue years after that🤞🏾

— Breece Hall (@BreeceH) January 4, 2024

2024 Defensive Player of the Year Award

Over the last 10 years, the Defensive Player of the Year award has predominantly favored defensive linemen or pass-rushers, with just one exception (Stephon Gilmore). All nine of those winners have recorded double-digit sacks, with six of them finishing within the top two in total sacks on the season, and only one falling outside of the top-10.

Additionally, nine out of the last 10 winners have helped their team reach the playoffs. With all of this in mind, our focus will be on selecting pass-rushers/defensive linemen with a strong chance for finishing in the top 10 for sacks, and possibly even among the top two, while also considering their potential impact on playoff contention, though not as the primary factor. This emphasis is further highlighted by the presence of 12 defensive linemen/pass-rushers listed on FanDuel before the first player of another position is listed.

PICK: Maxx Crosby (+700 on DraftKings, +1000 on FanDuel)

Maxx Crosby has emerged as one of the premier pass-rushers in the league, consistently wreaking havoc on the field while engaging in relentless trash talk aimed at opposing quarterbacks. He embodies the ideal qualities of a dominant pass-rusher and shows no signs of slowing down.

With consecutive seasons of double-digit sack totals -- 12.5 in 2022 and 14.5 in 2023, both ranking in the top 10 -- Crosby's trajectory is clearly trending upward. Additionally, he ranked fourth in total quarterback pressures in the 2023 season with 95. He also recorded three forced fumbles in 2022 and two in 2023.

That being said, it's worth mentioning that the Raiders' playoff hopes remain uncertain, with questions surrounding their roster, particularly at the quarterback position. Nonetheless, with the right head coach in place, coupled with the acquisition of a suitable QB, the Raiders could potentially make their way to the playoffs.

Even in the absence of a playoff run, Crosby's individual achievements will be noteworthy. His durability is particularly impressive, having not missed a single game in his five-year NFL career, totaling 83 consecutive appearances. Despite battling through various injuries, Crosby's resiliency is unmatched, making him a reliable anchor for any team. Should the Raiders attain around eight or nine wins and Crosby maintain his presence as one of the top sack leaders -- potentially leading the league -- his candidacy for DPOY becomes increasingly viable.

Maxx Crosby is a DIFFERENCE MAKER 😤
pic.twitter.com/8pL7Hmtmk1

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) February 23, 2024

Best Value: Aidan Hutchinson (+1200 on DraftKings, +1600 on FanDuel)

Aidan Hutchinson is set to enter his third NFL season, already establishing himself as one of the league's elite pass-rushers. With a combined 21 sacks, four interceptions, four fumble recoveries, and three forced fumbles in his first two years, he's demonstrated his impact across various facets of the game.

Despite facing the most frequent double-teams of any edge-rusher in 2022, he notched 9.5 sacks, ranking 20th in the league. In the past season, he elevated his performance with 11.5 sacks, a tally that ranked 12th in the league, all while continuing to contend with a high percentage of double-team attention.

Hutchinson's dominance extended to the playoffs, where he recorded three sacks in as many games, tying for first among all players. On top of that, he finished second in total quarterback pressures for the 2023 season, with an impressive 101 pressures. Hutchinson's consistent excellence solidifies his status among the league's top pass-rushers, and anticipation is high for a breakout season in the near future.

2023 NFL QB pressure leaders:
1. MParsons 103 (14 sacks)
2. AHutchinson 101 (11.5)
3. NBosa 95 (10.5)
4. MCrosby 92 (14.5)
5. JAllen 90 (17.5)
6. KMack 88 (17)
7. MGarrett 86 (14)
7. TWatt 86 (19)
9. ADonald 84 (8)
10. THendrickson 79 (17.5)

— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) January 8, 2024

The Lions narrowly missed their first Super Bowl appearance by just a field goal. With the majority of their roster set to return, they're poised for another strong season, alleviating any concerns about playoff contention. Hutchinson's improvement over his first two seasons leads me to believe he's on track to finish among the top five in sacks, positioning him favorably for the DPOY award. Coupled with another Lions playoff appearance, the outlook appears promising.

2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year Award

Choosing the recipient of this award poses a slight challenge, given the distribution of past winners: four quarterbacks, three running backs, and three wide receivers over the last 10 years. The key lies in identifying players expected to have a high usage rate right away.

With a strong quarterback draft class, the highest value likely resides there. While uncertainties persist regarding players' draft placements, we can speculate on their potential landing spots and anticipated usage within an offense based on their current draft rankings.

PICK: Caleb Williams (odds currently unavailable)

Caleb Williams currently holds -900 odds on DraftKings to get selected by the Chicago Bears. Barring any significant changes in the coming weeks, it's likely that Williams will become Chicago's next starting quarterback. He's being regarded as potentially the answer to Chicago's longstanding quest for a franchise quarterback, drawing comparisons to three-time Super Bowl winner Patrick Mahomes.

While there are some striking similarities, Williams' transition to the NFL remains untested, making predictions challenging, especially when comparing a player at his stage to the NFL's elite. Nonetheless, Williams possesses a unique talent with a raw natural ability to generate offense off-script.

The Bears find themselves in a promising position for the future. Alongside the first pick, they hold the ninth overall pick, likely to be utilized on another offensive weapon, whether it's an offensive lineman or wide receiver. With the likes of DJ Moore and Cole Kmet already in their offensive arsenal, further additions could greatly enhance their offensive capabilities. Furthermore, they boast the third-highest cap space in the NFL, and with the anticipated trade of Justin Fields, they stand to gain additional picks and potential players.

Given Chicago's prolonged search for a standout quarterback, Williams has the opportunity to carve out a legacy as a Bears legend. Adding to the optimism, the Bears concluded last season with much-improved play, securing wins in five of their last eight games. While Williams may emerge as the favorite once the odds are released, it's with good reason. Everything seems to align well for him to contend for the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award.

Just a sick quote from Caleb Williams regarding Chicago and it's sports icons:

"As the saying goes, the legends live on. That's my goal of playing football -- it's not money, it's not fame.. it's to be immortal. I want to reach that sense of being a legend."

— Dave (@dave_bfr) February 28, 2024

We won't delve too deeply into the best value pick for OROY just yet, as the odds aren’t available. However, I am particularly keen on LSU's wide receiver Malik Nabers to make a strong rookie debut. The Consensus All-American proved to be one of the most explosive players in all of college football, leading the nation with 34 offensive plays of 20-plus yards and 17 of at least 30 yards. His speed and athleticism render him an intriguing prospect, regardless of the team he lands with.

LSU WR Malik Nabers is the most explosive playmaker in the 2024 NFL Draft that should not get out of the top 10

Positives
✅ Elite athlete. No athletic limitations
✅ 1 on 1 nightmare to cover
✅ Fluid mover in his routes
✅ Best YAC receiver in the class
✅ A career forced miss… pic.twitter.com/zbEME1o8mJ

— Bryce Huff’s Agent (@TommyK_NFLDraft) February 9, 2024

2024 Coach of the Year Award

Since 1991, only one coach has won this award without reaching double-digit wins. Nevertheless, this award encompasses more than just win totals. If it solely reflected the best coach, Bill Belichick and Andy Reid would likely have more accolades. While achieving double-digit wins and making the playoffs is significant, the primary consideration should be the team's expectations heading into the season and their ability to surpass them.

PICK: Matt LaFleur (+850 on DraftKings, +1600 on FanDuel)

The Green Bay Packers demonstrated their ability to surpass expectations this past season, reaching the NFC Divisional Round game in what many perceived as a rebuilding year. LaFleur is widely regarded as one of the premier coaches in the league, and he showcased his prowess last season.

Despite a sluggish start, the Packers finished the season strong, winning six of their last eight games, propelled by a remarkable stretch of play from Jordan Love. As mentioned in the MVP section of this article, Love has already proven himself to be an exceptional quarterback and will seek to capitalize on that with his talented, young receiving corps. Additionally, with Jeff Hafley now taking the reins as the new defensive coordinator following the team's middling defensive rankings, positive change could be on the horizon.

Despite being in a challenging NFC North division, the Packers have the necessary components to return to the playoffs and secure double-digit wins. Last season, they finished with a 9-8 record, and there's optimism they can build upon their success. If they manage to secure 11 wins or higher, as I believe they have a solid chance of doing, LaFleur will undoubtedly merit consideration for Coach of the Year, especially given the youthful makeup of their roster.

Best Value: Raheem Morris (+1000 on DraftKings, +1200 on FanDuel)

The Atlanta Falcons, having concluded yet another season with a 7-10 record, opted for a change in leadership due to their sustained mediocrity. They appointed Raheem Morris as their new head coach, marking a return for Morris, who previously served with the team from 2015 to 2020.

Following his tenure with the Falcons, Morris spent the last three seasons with the Los Angeles Rams under the guidance of Sean McVay. With an extensive coaching background spanning 22 years in the NFL, Morris' comeback to Atlanta has sparked enthusiasm among the fan base.

This Falcons roster clearly holds potential. Their defense stands among the league's best, complemented by a wealth of offensive talent in Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. With a new head coach poised to propel them into contention, the team's outlook is very promising.

However, the missing piece to their puzzle lies at quarterback, a fact not glossed over by Morris in a recent press conference where he remarked, "If we had better quarterback play last year in Atlanta, I might not be standing here."

The Falcons are currently the favorite to be Justin Fields' next team. Acquiring Fields could elevate their win total to double digits, positioning Morris as a top contender for Coach of the Year.

Yet, even without Fields, the draft and free agency offer ample opportunities to address the quarterback position. Regardless of the route taken, a change at QB is imminent for the Falcons. Once implemented, their trajectory is set to take a significant turn for the better.

"If we had better quarterback play last year in Atlanta, I might not be standing here." - Raheem Morris.#Falcons pic.twitter.com/y9oSf95qyq

— Maria Martin (@Ria_Martin) February 27, 2024

Honorable Mention: Sean McVay (+1800,  +3000 on FanDuel)

Remember, the NFL landscape can change rapidly, so approach any wagers wisely. With the draft on the horizon, excitement for football talk is back in full swing. Best of luck to everyone as we gear up for another thrilling NFL season, both on the field and in the world of gambling.

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