RADIO
As we prepare to navigate another busy fantasy baseball season of drafting, which is the best season we have all year, we need to contemplate how we will tackle the stickiest wicket in fantasy baseball: saves. How we value relief pitchers has changed throughout the last few seasons. We know that relief pitchers are throwing more innings than starting pitchers annually. We have to look at several factors when we plan our draft strategy for finding this sometimes elusive statistic.
In years past, you may have been able to draft two closers and set and forget it each week. However, that is becoming more difficult today with the musical chairs we see in closing roles all season. Jeff Zimmerman pointed out that 40% of Opening Day closers earned 60% of all the saves earned in 2023. We need to do a better job finding these guys.
Let's take a look at some things we should be adding to our mindset as we prepare for draft season. One thing I espouse and hold dear to my heart: we should always be learning and growing when it comes to how we construct our fantasy teams, and that includes looking at how we add high-leverage relievers to our squads. We know we would like to target closers on winning teams, but are we willing to pay the high second or third-round price tag and miss out on the key offensive targets we would surrender in that scenario?
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Using Relief Pitcher "Stuff" as a Starting Point
I like to look at things like the chart below to see how a closer's pure "stuff" ranks up against other arms as an opening exercise in this activity. Emmanuel Clase led the way with 44 saves in 2023. The gray bars represent the league average; the shaded pink shows where Clase falls, and it's an impressive arsenal.
Know Your League Format and Scoring System
The first, and perhaps most obvious caveat, is to know your league format and scoring system. You would be surprised how many people do not look at this or worse yet, assume that they know the scoring system. Several times a season, a friend will reach out to me and ask for an opinion on an addition to their team, and I will ask them first, what is the scoring system? League size? This is of vital importance as you build or add to your roster.
Are you in a pure 5x5 league? Are you in a league that counts saves + holds? Or one that uses holds as a category on its own? They do exist. A recent informal poll I conducted on X showed that 46% of leagues count only saves, 33% have a saves + holds category, and 21% have saves and holds as a separate category.
This informs how you build the roster. If the category is just saves, you can try and roster the amount you think you will need in the draft. If you feel confident finding saves through the waiver wire or your FAAB process, just know that strategy can be fraught with peril. A strategy to use there would be to try and target the "next" guy up should a closer be struggling. As an example, say Kyle Finnegan struggles with walks and you think the Nationals might make a change in the top spot. A week before they make that change, you roster Hunter Harvey.
Stay ahead of your peers in this category by following the trials and tribulations of bullpens. There are several excellent resources on X to find this information. I strongly suggest doing this the old-fashioned way: read box scores every morning and see how managers are handling their late-inning guys. What they do tells you more than what they say in their press conferences. However, that info can be helpful as well when they tout a guy who is moving up in their pecking order. Pay attention when you can.
League context matters. Do you know your league mates? Do you have some inkling of how they value relief pitchers? Some league-mates might place a higher value on closers than you do, or vice versa. Do you have access to historical information on their draft predilections? This is all helpful information as you plan your strategy.
There is No Such Thing as a "Sure" Thing
Some fantasy players will value the idea of locking up a "sure" thing even though we know there is no such thing as a sure thing. Here, I think of guys like Josh Hader, Edwin Diaz, and Emmanuel Clase. But caveat emptor: finding saves can be a volatile exercise as the year-to-year reliability is low. Even the top saves guys can lose their job due to ineffectiveness or injury. For example, Diaz injured his knee in the World Baseball Classic and missed the entire season. Could Clase's MLB-leading 12 blown saves in 2023 be a precursor that something is amiss with him?
Ryan Pressly may have lost his job with the acquisition of Hader this week by the Houston Astros. Carlos Estevez's grip on the Los Angeles Angels' closer job loosened with the signing of Robert Stephenson. My point is, we just don't know, despite our best efforts to get this knowledge.
We saw 12 pitchers earn more than 30 saves in 2023. 23 pitchers had at least 20 saves. A total of 38 pitchers had at least 10 saves. Finally, 53 pitchers had at least five saves, and a whopping 214 pitchers had at least one save. Major league teams are spreading the wealth and recognizing that they may use their closer earlier in the game to get outs.
Fellow RotoBaller writer Eric Cross pointed out recently that there are four relievers with a 33+ K%, a sub 3.00 ERA, and 140 innings pitched over the last three seasons. Those are Josh Hader with a .245 ERA and 39.8 K%, Devin Williams with a 1.97 ERA and 38.7 K%, Paul Sewald with a 2.95 ERA and 33.9 K% and Raisel Iglesias with a 2.59 ERA and 33.2 K%. While we know inherently there are never any sure bets, these are as close to locks as we can get. And all will have a shiny price tag in drafts this spring. Look at Hader's Statcast data; this is a guy that is at the top of his game:
You need fewer saves to be competitive in the category in most leagues today. However, unless you punt the category, you are going to need to bank about 70 saves to finish in the middle of the pack. For example, when we look at NFBC Draft Champions leagues in 2023, you needed 74 saves to be in the 80th percentile, and 82 saves for the 90th percentile.
You're going to need some combination of relievers to get to this number. You might feel that getting two potential 30+ saves guys will get you there. In doing that, you should know that you may need to augment via your league's free-agent acquisition process. Or, you might take a late-round flyer on a middle reliever who could get save opportunities should a change happen on their team.
Closers and Bullpen Draft Strategies
Try to draft one closer early that you project for 30+ saves. I would recommend in most leagues (especially 15-teamers) that you get a closer in the first seven or eight rounds. Then you can build around that with picks later in the draft, targeting lower-tier closers or high-leverage arms that could find themselves ascending to a closer role should injury or ineffectiveness plague their team's top option.
For example, let's say you roster Pete Fairbanks as a closer, but in doing so, it is best to be aware of his injury history. In that case, selecting Jason Adam later in the draft offers you an opportunity to get the Rays' saves without pause should something happen to Fairbanks.
Mining in the middle relief corps for breakout closer candidates will help you with ratios and strikeouts at the very least. Being aware of the next guy up is crucial so that you can add them through your league's free agent acquisition process.
For example, in a recent mock draft 12-team league I participated in at Fantrax, I snagged David Bednar in the ninth round and followed up with Craig Kimbrel in the 13th round. I hope to get 60 saves between them, maybe a smidge more, and then draft a guy at the end who might have the skills to close without having the job.
To that end, I drafted Matt Brash with my last pick in the hope of finding 10-15 saves there with a bunch of strikeouts and great ratio help. The aforementioned Adam is a great example here. Other relief pitchers you might earmark in this position: Brash and Hunter Harvey are other examples; Brash is behind an injury-prone Andres Munoz and Harvey is behind Kyle Finnegan in Washington. This is what Brash did last year and you can see why he may be valuable this year. Huge strikeout rate, lowered walk rate, and limited hard contact:
You can also look for high-leverage guys on perceived playoff teams: Jeff Hoffman in Philadelphia, Griffin Jax in Minnesota, and Bryan Abreu in Houston. These are guys who will get some save opportunities, rack up 20+ holds, and help in other categories like strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. Protect those precious ratios at all cost!
I would also strongly recommend looking at relief pitchers with a solid K-BB rate while looking at high strikeout rates. It's not rocket science, but the best pitchers to roster are those who miss the most bats.
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