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Week 4 likely isn't supplying you with a huge add to chase but that doesn't mean we can't move some chess pieces forward. FYI, we've added three tiers of bids to reflect how conservative or desperate you/your league might be. As always, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).
As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free-agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player, but we've now added different categories of bids to reflect team-need situations.
The bye weeks have begun! We're missing the Browns, Bucs, Chargers, and Seahawks off the rip so let's pad out our depth. Here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 5.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU) - 47% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-7%
Count me among those who doubted C.J. Stroud and a beat-up offensive line against Pittsburgh’s front seven. Efficiency is for suckers, as Stroud completed only 16 of his 30 pass attempts for 306 yards and two scores. He chipped in four rushes for 16 yards and now has at least three rushes in each game thus far.
Sam Howell (QB, WSH) - 18% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Sam Howell rebounded from his four-INT game by nearly beating the NFC Champion Eagles. He stood tall against Philly’s pressure with 29-of-41 passing and zero turnovers. The youngster also had 40 ground yards on six carries after just five combined rush attempts in his first three games. Tap into the rushing talent! Now, Howell gets a porous Bears defense that only has a short week to recover from blowing a huge lead to Denver.
Can’t help but notice how Sam Howell has magically fixed his problem with holding the ball too long after FOUR WEEKS. Not 10, not 17, FOUR!! This kid has to be the most coachable quarterback I’ve ever seen in a Redskins/WFT/Commanders uniform👀#HTTC
pic.twitter.com/ZINO9MHhjA— SPIETH SZN (@TheLukismMoment) October 2, 2023
Joshua Dobbs (QB, ARI) - 5% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Joshua Dobbs and the Cardinals couldn’t hang with San Francisco (few can) but we still got 265-2-0 through the air and 12 carries for 48 rushing yards. He’s finding a groove despite some frightful matchups and now he gets a home date against the Bengals. Cincinnati just got rolled by Tennessee and if Dobbs can make it four straight games with more than 40 rushing yards then streamers are in business.
What Joshua Dobbs is doing with this Cardinals offense in terrifying matchups might be one of the most impressive things of the 2023 season so far.
vs DAL: 120 rating, 85.5 QBR
at SF: 102.2 rating, 80.9 QBRNow fifth in NFL in designed rush attempts for QBs at 17%.
No INTs.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) October 2, 2023
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
Jaleel McLaughlin (RB, DEN) - 3% rostered
FAAB Bid: 4-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-10%
Desperation Bid: 10-15%
Jaleel McLaughlin stepped up with Denver trailing and Javonte Williams out with a hip flexor injury, totaling 104 yards and a touchdown on 10 touches. Samaje Perine had 35 yards on eight touches and remains the big-bodied back with an edge near the goal line, but McLaughlin’s explosiveness can’t be ignored.
However, the Broncos go from facing a horrid Bears D to taking on the Jets, and Williams’ hip injury doesn’t sound serious. Denver should be cautious with Williams but a three-man committee tempers the fun.
Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB, MIA) - 27% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-7%
Desperation Bid: 7-10%
Jeff Wilson Jr. should join a 2023 Miami backfield that has led a wild scoring bonanza through four weeks. It’s easy to forget that JWJ remains on the right side of 30 and just posted a 176-860-5 rushing line with 22-185-1 receiving in ‘22. De'Von Achane has taken the NFL by storm in Weeks 3-4 while Raheem Mostert has seven TDs already, but would you rather Miami’s No. 3 RB than a mediocre offense’s No. 2? I’d think so.
FYI: On his weekly WSVN-Fox 7 segment, Drew Rosenhaus said RB Jeff Wilson Jr. is healthy and ready to return off IR (pending team deciding to do so; he's eligible) and center Connor Williams "should be back in the near future, whether it's next week or the week after that." https://t.co/dozAG8bXQr
— Barry Jackson (@flasportsbuzz) October 2, 2023
Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR) - 25% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-7%
Desperation Bid: 7-10%
With Miles Sanders likely limited by a groin injury, Chuba Hubbard stepped up to lead Carolina RBs in playing time and performance. It was Sanders pressing in the first half, but he only gained 19 yards on 13 carries (3-13-0 receiving). Hubbard played more after halftime and wound up with 14-41-0 on the ground and 12 more yards on two catches.
I’m not here to say those numbers are inspiring, but perhaps Sanders’ condition won’t improve and Hubbard is the 1A going against Detroit. (And Minnesota has now held Rachaad White, Joshua Kelley, and Sanders to just 70 yards on 41 carries! Don’t ask about the D'Andre Swift line.)
Tyjae Spears (RB, TEN) - 24% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-7%
Desperation Bid: 7-10%
Vintage Derrick Henry appeared in Tennessee’s Week 4 victory (22-122-1 rushing) with a jump-pass TD to boot. But Tyjae Spears continues to delight in limited windows. This time he turned eight touches into 58 total yards and is averaging over six yards per carry with 10 catches over four games. Would he become a weekly 25-touch beast if Henry were to go down? It seems unlikely with his frame and knee history, but we can’t rule it out.
Keaton Mitchell (RB, BAL) - 17% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-10%
Keaton Mitchell was a preseason darling before a shoulder injury derailed any modest hype. Baltimore’s backfield has since absorbed the loss of J.K. Dobbins while patching in the likes of Melvin Gordon III from the practice squad. Mitchell is a longshot to make an impact and several have compared this to the Ty'Son Williams hype train. But those with an empty IR slot available would be wise to utilize it until a more pressing stash arises.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
Jameson Williams (WR, DET) - 32% rostered
FAAB Bid: 8-12%
Aggressive Bid: 12-16%
Desperation Bid: 16-25%
Jameson Williams’ gambling suspension was reduced to four games and suddenly he’s eligible to play. We’ve yet to see a 100% Jameson hit the NFL after being limited due to injuries last year, but this was 2022’s 12th overall pick! The Lions love to pound the rock and have a more capable defense but Williams can turn any catch into a long TD. His field-stretching abilities should blossom with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta occupying the midfield.
#Lions head coach Dan Campbell says Jameson Williams, who returns from suspension today, just needs to keep polishing the little things.
Said they’ll work him back in gradually and wouldn’t expect to see him playing 60 snaps on Sunday. pic.twitter.com/zP6KJj6i4W
— Nolan Bianchi (@nolanbianchi) October 2, 2023
Michael Wilson (WR, ARI) - 2% rostered
FAAB Bid: 5-7%
Aggressive Bid: 7-10%
Desperation Bid: 10-15%
Michael Wilson scored both of Arizona’s touchdowns in Week 4 as he brought in all seven targets for 76 yards. He’d lost some momentum early on but had 86 yards on two catches in Week 3 and was schemed above Rondale Moore and Zach Pascal as Arizona’s No. 2 WR.
The Cardinals still had Moore run 40 routes to Wilson’s 35, but Moore only got two targets and looks more like a sporadic gadget player in this iteration of the offense. Wilson, Marquise Brown, and Zach Ertz should help balance the offensive approach with James Conner’s workhorse role against the Bengals in Week 5.
Tyler Boyd (WR, CIN) - 37% rostered
FAAB Bid: 5-7%
Aggressive Bid: 7-10%
Desperation Bid: 10-15%
Tee Higgins is dealing with a fractured rib (yet isn’t ruling himself out for Week 5), which puts Tyler Boyd into the spotlight as a true starter. Usually limited to PPR flex fringes as Cincy’s slot man, Boyd elevating into two-wide sets maximizes his routes run.
It helps that Cincinnati appears destined for a negative gamescript with a shaky defense and Joe Burrow at less than 100%. But Burrow’s lesser form simultaneously drags down the outcome spectrum and Higgins might not miss much time, if any at all. It’s not an exciting bid.
Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, DEN) - 39% rostered
FAAB Bid: 5-7%
Aggressive Bid: 7-10%
Desperation Bid: 10-15%
Marvin Mims Jr. did indeed see a few more snaps in Week 4, sharing the number of snaps (17) and routes run (12) with Brandon Johnson, per PFF. Denver needed its receivers in their comeback bid against Chicago, with Mims supplying 47 yards on two catches. He now has 242 yards and a TD on just nine receptions (plus the return TD).
We hope to see Mims surpass Johnson in Week 5, but he’ll be running against a tough Jets defense that may smother Russell Wilson. And then Denver has two games against KC over their next three weeks, which will require plenty of firepower! Let’s see if his playing time keeps trending up, but stashing can get tricky as bye weeks commence.
Trey Palmer (WR, TB) - 0% rostered
Deven Thompkins (WR, TB) - 0% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-8%
Mike Evans was forced out of Week 4’s game with a hamstring injury and we now endure Tampa’s bye. Trey Palmer’s usage on the outside following Evans’ exit has us leaning his way for a speculative add, but his 2-6-1 receiving line pales against Deven Thompkins’ 4-45-1 with an 11-yard rush on top.
Realistically, the Bucs would be in a bad way without Evans against Detroit’s active defense in Week 6. It’s no coincidence that Chris Godwin essentially doubled his previous season-high mark with 114 yards without Evans. Tampa was fortunate that an injured Derek Carr couldn’t push the ball and would lean on their defense as much as possible.
We’ll also note that Ke'Shawn Vaughn was the No. 2 RB ahead of Sean Tucker, who was active but saw zero touches. Vaughn still only got 16 rushing yards on nine carries against a frightful New Orleans line. Chances could emerge for someone or the Bucs may bring in a free agent over their bye with Rachaad White averaging 3.3 YPC (ugh).
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Zach Ertz (TE, ARI) - 26% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-10%
Zach Ertz has two games with double-digit targets (and three with more than eight) and we’d all be drooling at this if he didn’t drop a garbage-time TD. Alas, the 6-53-0 line will have to do for now. Arizona might have more control over the game script against Cincinnati in Week 5.
Week 4 TE Fantasy Usage is nuts
1 Zach Ertz (14.9 exp half PPR) 🚨
2 Tyler Higbee (14.9)🚨
3 Cole Kmet (12.4)🚨
4 Jake Ferguson (11.9)🚨
5 Mark Andrews (8.3)
6 Travis Kelce (8.3)
7 Tyler Conklin (8.1)🚨
8 Evan Engram (7.8)
9 AnDrew Ogletree (7.7)🚨🚨🚨
10 Jonnu Smith (7.6)🚨— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) October 2, 2023
Gerald Everett (TE, LAC) - 34% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-8%
Gerald Everett had a meager Week 4 (2-9-0) ahead of LAC’s bye but could see an uptick if Donald Parham Jr. did indeed suffer a wrist fracture. The Chargers should take their bye to reassess their approach in the wake of injuries.
Austin Ekeler should be back but Justin Herbert may still be affected by a finger fracture on his non-throwing hand. The bye gives LAC a chance to integrate Everett and Joshua Palmer more while scheming Quentin Johnston’s ramp-up.
Logan Thomas (TE, WAS) - 6% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-8%
Logan Thomas had a relatively quiet Week 4, catching all three targets for 41 yards in his return from a concussion. It’s a far cry from the eight targets he saw in Week 1 but there aren’t any slam-dunk adds at TE. Washington isn’t shy about utilizing TEs and faces a Bears team that has let Luke Musgrave and Cade Otton each surpass 40 yards already.
Jonnu Smith (TE, ATL) - 0% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-3%
Desperation Bid: 3-5%
Atlanta’s passing offense remains terrible but Jonnu Smith has something cooking here. One week after seeing eight targets, Smith turned six looks into six catches for 95 yards in London. Don’t forget that he and Arthur Smith go back to the Titans when the 28-year-old set career highs with a 41-448-8 line in 2020.
The floor is zero with Desmond Ridder but he’s averaging five catches over the last three games and Atlanta will have to keep up with C.J. Stroud and the upstart Texans offense in Week 5.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
Washington Commanders Defense (vs. CHI) - 25% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-5%
Desperation Bid: 6-8%
Washington has surrendered 33+ points in three consecutive games, but two came against Buffalo and Philadelphia. No shame in that! Their Week 2 effort against Denver allowed points but housed seven sacks and two turnovers.
Despite the formidable offensive line, they just got to Jalen Hurts for a trio of sacks. Regardless, they now face a flailing Chicago squad before favorable games against the Falcons and Giants. None of those O-lines match up well against Montez Sweat, Chase Young, and the boys.
Detroit Lions Defense (vs. CAR) - 10% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-6%
After just one sack in their first two games (KC, SEA), Detroit has crushed Atlanta and Green Bay for a combined 12 sacks. Aidan Hutchinson is a game-breaker while Bryce Young hasn’t proven he can push the ball downfield yet. He’s yet to throw for more than 205 yards in a game for the 0-4 Panthers, making them a solid target.
Green Bay Defense (at LV) - 26% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-6%
I don’t love taking Green Bay on the road but Las Vegas is in serious trouble. Jimmy Garoppolo has to clear the concussion protocol, Davante Adams hurt his shoulder in Week 4, and Josh Jacobs is ice cold. Adams being compromised at all severely hinders Vegas and should force risky plays to lesser options.
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