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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Tuesday, August 29, 2023. Use Dan Palyo's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sports books.
I didn't get to tout my K prop picks publicly anywhere yesterday other than to some Discord and Twitter groups, but it was another clean sweep on the evening thanks to Cristian Javier (under), Kyle Harrison (way over), and Grayson Rodriguez. I'm ready to go on the record today with some more picks and maybe we will mix some hitters in today just so they don't feel excluded.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Tuesday, August 29, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Tarik Skubal OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-165 DraftKings)
We start out with a juiced prop as Tarik Skubal's chance to get six strikeouts has already seen some movement and now sits at -165. I am okay with eating the juice on this one because of how bad of a funk the Yankees are in right now at the plate. Did you see what Reese Olson did to them last night? Yikes!
Reese Olson's 7th, 8th, 9th & 10th Ks.
Thru 4. 😯 pic.twitter.com/Pv48qIqrM6
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 28, 2023
Now Skubal is a lefty and their K% vs. LHP isn't as bad over the last month. Still, this lineup is very strikeout heavy and Skubal has the type of plus stuff we are looking for in a strikeout pitcher. You would think that lining up nine RHH against Skubal might be a bad thing, but Skubal's splits this year against righties are actually much better in terms of strikeouts (32%) compared to lefties (just 9%). There's always some home run risk and a chance that the bad version of Skubal shows up, but I like his chances here and his recent success (seven strikeouts in two straight starts) gives me some optimism.
Brandon Williamson OVER 5.5 strikeouts (+110 DraftKings)
Here's a guy that I haven't wagered on much this season. Brandon Williamson really didn't pitch well for most of his rookie campaign until recently. I had been staying away from him despite the fact that he occasionally flirted with some good K numbers. But over the last month, he's really been significantly better in run prevention and more consistent in terms of his strikeout production.
The Giants are a team to target for strikeouts as they are whiffing 26% of the time against LHP over the last month. Williamson also gets them on the road in a much better ballpark. If you check the game log, you'll see that he's gone for six or more strikeouts in five straight starts. However, we are still getting plus odds on him despite his recent stretch of solid outings.
Charlie Morton OVER 7.5 strikeouts (+105 DraftKings)
The ageless wonder is on some kind of strikeout tear of late, whiffing 21 hitters over his last two starts spanning 13 frames. Charlie Morton might be in Coors Field tonight, but I am still bullish on his strikeout abilities against a very K-heavy lineup from Colorado against RHP.
Charlie Morton, K'ing the Side in the 2nd. pic.twitter.com/2onWmZp8gJ
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 23, 2023
Morton has only faced the Rockies once this season and he had eight strikeouts in that matchup against them at home back in June. When you pair his recent form with the Rockies' recent strikeout trends, this sets up nicely for a potential high strikeout outing and I love that we are getting plus odds here as well.
Walks Parlay: Tyler Anderson OVER 1.5 BB (-145) + George Kirby UNDER 1.5 BB (-290) = +126 DraftKings
Tyler Anderson has walked two or more hitters now in four straight and faces a fairly patient Phillies team today. George Kirby continues to exhibit incredible control as he hasn't walked a batter in four straight starts! When Kirby's prop drops to under 0.5 at plus money, I will be betting it there, too, as he's facing a very impatient Oakland lineup.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Yordan Alvarez OVER 1.5 total bases (-120 DraftKings)
Yordan Alvarez mashed another dinger last night and gets a tasty matchup tonight against Brayan Bello, who has very sharp splits and has struggled against lefties.
Yordan Alvarez knows how to hit those soul crushing bombs pic.twitter.com/QQiSx9nv0y
— Barstool Baseball (@StoolBaseball) August 29, 2023
Bello is mainly sinker-changeup to lefties and I am not sure there is a better "crusher of changeups" from the left side of the plate than Alvarez. He's had a .516 ISO against that pitch going back to the start of last season. It's a good park for lefties in Boston and I think we get a double or home run (or even just multiple hits) from Yordan tonight.
Julio Rodriguez OVER 1.5 total bases (+110 DraftKings)
Yeah, I know I shouldn't be chasing the streak that Julio Rodriguez is on, but good lord is this guy HOT. He went 4-5 last night with another home run for his third straight game with a long ball. The man is just locked in right now so I am willing to overlook that he's better against righties than lefties (LHP Ken Waldichuk is on the hill for Oakland). Even if he doesn't get it done against Waldichuk, he should get a few at-bats against this battered and bruised Oakland bullpen that has been the worst in baseball all season long.
We are getting the hottest hitter in baseball at plus odds. I know it feels like cheating, but come on! It's time to keep riding Julio tonight and possibly as long as we can. This dude has been incredible.
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