Commander Clash – Antonio Gibson vs. Brian Robinson for Fantasy Football

Hayden Epinette takes a look at the ADPs for Washington Commanders running backs Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson and evaluates who could be more valuable for 2023 fantasy football.

Washington Commanders running back Antonio Gibson had a strong start to his NFL career after being drafted in 2020. In each of his first two seasons, Gibson posted at least 1,000 scrimmage yards and 10 total touchdowns. However, his usage and production both dropped off significantly last season, as he posted career lows in rushing attempts, rushing yards, yards per carry, and total touchdowns despite playing 15 games.

The primary cause for that decline was the competition rookie tailback Brian Robinson provided. Robinson missed the beginning of the season as he recovered from being shot in the leg as the victim of a carjacking attempt. Nevertheless, he still produced five games of 20 or more rushing attempts and six top-30 PPR weekly finishes at his position. Robinson's presence definitely reduced Gibson's role from his 2021 duties.

Now, fantasy managers are wondering how the workload will be balanced between Gibson and Robinson in 2023. Will Gibson's decline continue, or will he regain his pedestal from Robinson? Which player is more valuable in fantasy leagues relative to their cost in drafts? This article will take a deeper dive into the Washington backfield and give fantasy managers the information they need to approach these two players correctly.

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Brian Robinson's Rookie Season

Brian Robinson missed the first four weeks of his rookie campaign as his bullet wound healed, but he returned in Week 5 after a remarkably rapid recovery period. He had just nine carries in his debut, his second-lowest figure of the season, but in the following week he toted the ball 17 times. That set the tone for his volume over the remainder of the year; Robinson had at least 15 carries in eight of his 12 appearances.

By Week 10, Robinson had emerged as a consistent producer on the ground. In each of his seven outings from then onward, Robinson gained at least 57 rushing yards, and in five of them, he tallied 86 or more rushing yards. He did post just one 100-yard game though despite that consistency; Robinson earned 105 yards on 18 carries against the Atlanta Falcons in a 13-19 loss in Week 12, adding two catches for 20 yards and a receiving TD as well.

Despite the moderate success, there were a lot of warning signs in Robinson's first professional season as well. Although Robinson is a bigger back at 6'2" and 224 pounds, he had just 25 red zone touches and only two rushing touchdowns. Part of the reason for that was the overall ineffectiveness of the Washington offense; only 29.4 percent of the Commanders' drives ended in an offensive score, fifth-worst in the league. Still, a lack of touchdowns prevented Robinson from being more valuable to fantasy managers.

Also concerning was Robinson's absence in the passing game. The rookie ran just 5.7 routes per game, and his 18.7 percent route participation rate ranked 70th among running backs. With merely nine catches for 60 yards in 12 games, Robinson was one of only two players with 200+ carries yet fewer than 15 targets. He will need to become more involved in the air to be a well-rounded running back.

Finally, Robinson's efficiency was subpar throughout the year, especially in his first seven outings. It took Robinson until Week 12 to exceed 4.0 yards per carry in a single game, a feat he repeated just two more times after that. His 3.8 true yards per carry ranked 56th among RBs, and his 4.0 yards per touch was only 53rd. While he did face an average of 6.8 defenders in the box on his attempts, the 10th-most in the league, these numbers are still not good enough.

So, while Robinson did some impressive things as a rookie, he still has quite a bit of room to improve. With that said, he is only one half of the equation in this Commanders backfield. How did Antonio Gibson fare last season, and how did Robinson's presence impact his performance? In the next section, we will look further into Gibson's 2022 body of work and how it changed depending on Robinson's availability.

Robinson's Effect on Antonio Gibson

Antonio Gibson looked great in his first two years in the NFL. In his rookie year in 2020, Gibson rushed for 795 yards on 170 attempts (4.7 yards per carry), scored 11 TDs on the ground, and caught 36 passes for 247 yards. In the subsequent season, Gibson gained 1,037 yards on the ground on 258 carries (4.0 yards per carry), caught 42 passes for 294 yards, and scored 10 total touchdowns. He looked to be breaking out as a fantasy star.

Unfortunately for Gibson, Washington opted to draft Robinson in the third round of last year's draft. In the first four weeks of 2022, sans Robinson, Gibson posted 14, 14, 12, and 13 carries. In the 11 games he went on to share with Robinson, Gibson only reached the 12-carry mark twice. The difference between his average carries without Robinson active (13.3 attempts) and his average with Robinson active (8.7 attempts) was statistically significant.

Gibson was also ineffective on the ground in the opportunities he did have. His 3.6 true yards per carry failed to reach Robinson's mediocre number, and his 2.7 percent breakaway run rate was by far a career low. He also scored just three rushing touchdowns, continuing his downward trend each season.

On the other hand, Gibson was still quite potent as a receiving threat. His 46 receptions, 58 targets, and 353 receiving yards were all career highs. Moreover, his 7.7 yards per reception, 12.0 percent target share, 213 routes run, and 42.0 percent route participation were all personal bests as well. Although Gibson struggled as a runner, his receiving prowess ensured he remained fantasy relevant, particularly in PPR leagues.

Thus, Washington drafting Robinson hurt Gibson's rushing production, but so did Gibson's own regression in efficiency. This was partially offset by his improvement as a receiver. Could the departure of another running back this offseason further augment Gibson's receiving value? Below, we will analyze how the loss of J.D. McKissic could affect this backfield.

The Subtraction of J.D. McKissic

Last season, the Commanders had a third running back option: J.D. McKissic. McKissic was used mostly as a receiving threat out of the backfield, but he sustained a neck injury in Week 8 versus the Colts and was later placed on Injured Reserve for the remainder of the season. He was released earlier this offseason after failing a physical, meaning Gibson and Robinson will face less competition this year than in 2022.

Logically, McKissic's exit would benefit Gibson the most, as Gibson's role as a receiver overlaps more with McKissic's skillset. In the seven games Gibson played last season while McKissic was injured, he averaged 17.1 routes run per game, compared to 11.6 when McKissic was healthy. Additionally, Gibson had just one game with over a 40 percent route participation rate before McKissic's injury, whereas he had just one with under 40 percent after McKissic went down.

Robinson may also benefit from McKissic being gone too, though. In the four games Robinson played with McKissic also active, he averaged 13.5 carries per game. After McKissic got hurt, Robinson averaged 18.9 attempts. However, it is important to note that this trend may have been influenced by Robinson being eased into the offense as he returned from his own non-football injury. Still, the rise in usage for both backs is something to keep in mind.

Final Answer – Antonio Gibson or Brian Robinson?

Gibson and Robinson have had very similar ADPs dating back to May. Robinson has been going as the RB33 and Gibson has followed right behind his teammate at RB34. With both players having efficiency concerns and clear, but split, workloads, this is the proper spot in the draft for these players to be taken.

It's easy to see the appeal of taking each of these players at their current price.  For Gibson, the removal of McKissic from the backfield should allow him to do more of what he does best, and the idea that his per-touch effectiveness could bounce back is not too far-fetched.

However, the positives for Robinson are more compelling. His lackluster yards per carry average last year improved as the season went on; from Week 12 through Week 15, Robinson averaged 5.7 yards per carry. He should also get more action near the goal line to boost his touchdown numbers, and he will likely have a big edge over Gibson when it comes to rushing attempts. Without such a dramatic disruption at the beginning of his season, Robinson should have a smoother campaign overall.

With that in mind, and with Gibson's gradual decline year-over-year raising red flags, Robinson is the better bet in fantasy drafts given that the two players have very similar prices. Neither player would be a bad pick, though; Gibson simply appears to have a bigger risk of busting.

Some running backs going near Robinson and Gibson in drafts right now are Alvin Kamara, A.J. Dillon, Khalil Herbert, and Jamaal Williams. In general, both of the Commanders' options are more intriguing than these running backs, but they are mostly in the same tier for fantasy managers.

The one exception is Kamara, who is having his draft value affected by the potential of him being suspended at the beginning of the season. Kamara is a very talented running back though who also gets massive amounts of action in the passing attack, and when he plays he is much more valuable than any of the other names mentioned here. He would be a good draft choice at his current price.

The next best option in that group is Dillon. He is a very durable player who is a big goal-line threat due to his size (247 pounds), and his upside if Aaron Jones gets injured is massive. Still, Robinson is the better pick, mainly because, unlike Dillon, he is the clear number-one rushing option for his team.

In summary, both Robinson and Gibson are viable options as a low-end RB3, but Robinson is slightly more alluring. There is more reason to believe in his improvement than in Gibson's, but Gibson will also have an expanded receiving role with J.D. McKissic gone. Any fantasy managers who are able to snatch up Kamara instead of either of these two should go for him, though.

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