Eric Cross' Dynasty Notes - Fantasy Baseball News and Outlooks for Gunnar Henderson, Leody Taveras, Nolan Jones, Matt Mervis

June 17, 2023

Eric Cross' fantasy baseball dynasty news and notes analysis for Week 12 (2023). Notable prospects and risers/fallers for longer-term fantasy baseball dynasty leagues.

In the dynasty world, news and notes articles take on a whole new meaning. Not only are we discussing short-term value with these players, but we need to look long-term as well. A good dynasty manager is like Crazy Eyes from the movie Mr. Deeds. You have to have one eye on the present and one eye on the future. "I wasn't talking to you, Deeds. I was talking to that squirrel over there. [points at a goat]."

So that's what I'm going to do each week with this Dynasty News and Notes article here on RotoBaller. I'll be going around the league, discussing all the notable storylines and players both from a short-term and long-term perspective. Let's get to it.

In this week's report, I'll be discussing a resurgent former top prospect, two recent breakout hitters, pitching promotions, and much more!

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Fantasy Baseball Dynasty News and Notes

Gunner Henderson Heating Up

Entering the 2023 season, there was plenty of hype surrounding Gunnar Henderson, and rightfully so. Baltimore's top prospect had put himself in the discussion (with Corbin Carroll) for the top dog of fantasy prospects and impressed down the stretch with Baltimore last season. However, after an 0/3 game on May 12th, Henderson was slashing only .170/.341/.310 with three home runs and a 29.4% strikeout rate in 126 plate appearances. And even though it was only six weeks of underperformance, the questions started rolling in about whether or not Henderson was legit and if he could turn it around or not.

Those questions have been mostly answered over the last month. In 96 plate appearances since May 13th, Gunnar has slashed .319/.354/.626 with five doubles, seven home runs, and a trio of steals. It's almost like young players are susceptible to adjustment periods or something. HOW DARE THEY! However, with that said, Henderson's walk rate is only 5.2% over this stretch and he's still striking out 29.2 of the time.

Overall, I'm not terribly worried about the strikeout rate. Henderson ran a 26.4% strikeout rate in Triple-A last season and for his minor league career as a whole. In the majors this season, he's whiffing 29.4% of the time but only chasing at a 23.4% clip. He'll probably always be in that 25-30% range, which is an area we can live with given his power/speed blend. That blend was on full display last season as Henderson was one of only four hitters (min 50 BBE) to record a hard-hit rate above 50% with a 90th percentile or better sprint speed. And when you added in a 12% walk rate threshold, the list dropped to just Henderson.

One area of concern though is his impact against left-handed pitching. Henderson is hitting just .196 in 56 plate appearances against southpaws this season with zero extra-base hits. It's a small sample size, but definitely something to monitor moving forward.

Even through the ups and downs of this season, Henderson is still running a 13.5% barrel rate, 91.1 mph AVG EV, and 50% hard-hit rate, and the 78.2% zone contact rate, while below-average, isn't terrible. Even if he's more of a .260ish hitter, Henderson can still become a borderline top-25 overall player and I would still invest as such in dynasty leagues.

Are Leody Taveras and Nolan Jones For Real

Over the last month or so, two of the hottest hitters and best fantasy assets have been Nolan Jones and Leody Taveras. Both have been fairly highly-ranked prospects at one point or another, but have had their ups and downs over the last couple of seasons, especially in the Majors. Should we be buying into either's recent performance?

Let's start with Jones. In 72 plate appearances with Colorado since being recalled from Triple-A, Jones has four home runs and four steals with a stellar .333/.389/.591 slash line. This after mashing in Triple-A to the tune of a .356/.481/.711 slash line and 12 home runs in 39 games.

One area that I'm definitely buying into with Jones right now is the power. He's always been a plus or better raw power bat and that raw power finally translated into games more consistently when Jones stopped being so passive at the plate. Through 42 batted ball events this season, Jones has recorded an exceptional 16.7% barrel rate, along with a 91.5 mph AVG EV and 42.9% hard-hit rate. Over a full season, there's no doubt in my mind that Jones could be a 30-homer bat in Coors Field and could even add double-digit steals annually as well.

However, all of that hinges on the hit tool, which is where I have some questions. Even with the impressive surface stats, Jones is still striking out 33.3% of the time along with a 73.8% zone contact rate, 72.4% overall contact rate, and a 31.7% whiff rate. On top of that, Jones is running a lofty and unsustainable .474 BABIP right now. Moving forward, Jones is more of a sell than a buy for me, but at the same time, I do believe he can become a solid fantasy asset. Just not this solid.

As for Leody Taveras, he's now up to a .298/.357/.471 slash line in 211 plate appearances with six home runs and seven steals. That's right around a 20/20 pace. And when you look under the hood, I was more impressed than I anticipated I'd be. Taveras has always been one of the fastest players on the field and that remains the case this season with a 95th percentile sprint speed. But his gains at the plate are what I want to focus on.

To start, Taveras is having his best all-around quality of contact season yet with a 6.5% barrel rate, 90.9 mph AVG EV, and 45.8% hard-hit rate. All three of those would be career-best marks if the season ended today. Taveras had hinted at some sneaky pop during his time in the minor leagues, so it's certainly encouraging to see these power gains so far this season.

Another encouraging area is Taveras' improved plate discipline metrics, as outlined below.

Taveras has improved across the board this season and these all can be considered tangible changes. Better plate discipline and improved quality of contact can go along way in this game we love, and these improvements have me buying into Taveras right now in dynasty leagues. There's 15/25 upside here if these gains can stick, and it still feels like Taveras' perceived value hasn't quite caught up, making him an ideal player to target via trade.

Dynasty Quick Hits

An unfortunate blow was handed to Kansas City and fantasy managers this week as Vinnie Pasquantino will need to undergo surgery to repair a torn labrum in his shoulder. Pasquantino will miss the remainder of the 2023 season and possibly some of the 2024 season as well. While this is far from ideal, this might open up a nice buy-low window on Pasquantino in dynasty leagues, especially if the team that is rostering him in your league is a contending team. If that's the case, I'd be opening a dialogue with that manager to try and pry Vinnie P away from them for a piece that could help them more this season. Long-term, Vinnie P is still a top-50 player in my eyes.

Another first base domino to fall this week, but in a different way, was Matt Mervis. With the Cubs needing to clear a roster spot to activate Cody Bellinger, Mervis was optioned back down to Triple-A Iowa. The move shouldn't be too surprising given Mervis' uninspiring .167/.242/.289 slash line in 99 plate appearances with the Cubs this season. So at this point, we need to ask ourselves if Mervis was simply overrated or if we should be buying low.

The answer might be a bit of both, but I'm mostly in the buy low camp right now. Mervis' quality of contact metrics were elite with a 13.8% barrel rate and 50% hard-hit rate, but he struck out 32.3% of the time with a 33.3% whiff rate and 76.7% zone contact rate. Maybe he's more of a .250 hitter long-term than .270-.280, but the power is legit and worth buying in on in dynasty leagues with the hope that he can make strides with his contact and plate discipline metrics.

While Mervis was sent down to Triple-A, it was a net zero in the prospect world over the last 24 hours as the Dodgers called up Emmet Sheehan to start in their weekend series against San Francisco. Sheehan has dominated minor league hitters all season and is now inside my top-10 overall pitching prospects. In 53.1 innings for Double-A Tulsa, Sheehan recorded a stellar 1.86 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and a 41.7% strikeout rate.

Sheehan can miss bats at an elite rate (duh) thanks to his dynamic three pitch mix, featuring a mid to upper-90s fastball, changeup, and slider. Long-term, I believe Sheehan has SP2 upside if everything clicks and he's worth a look in all fantasy leagues right now where he's available. In dynasty leagues, the price tag has risen a ton this season, so trading for him right now would likely prove difficult.

Actually, it was a net positive in the prospect world as the Texas Rangers promoted Owen White the other day as well. White pitched two innings in relief on Tuesday, allowing four hits and three runs. While the performance in the minors this season hasn't blown anyone away, White remains a decent value target as a pitching prospect that has always been undervalued given the other names in the system. In a deeper dynasty league, I'd be fine with making an offer for him as White projects as a solid mid-rotation arm in my eyes.

Recently, someone on my Patreon discord asked me if Bryson Stott was legit. It's a great question given Stott's current level of production. In 290 plate appearances, Stott is hitting .301 with seven home runs and 10 steals. Included in that is a .354/.413/.583 slash line in the month of June so far. However, I'm not keen on buying in right now. Stott's plate discipline is the one area that impresses right now with a 16.8% strikeout rate, 88.2% zone contact rate, and a 13.7% whiff rate. But after that, the profile becomes far less intriguing.

Stott's quality of contact metrics are well below average (4.1% barrel rate, 87.7 mph AVG EV), he doesn't walk much (5.6%), and he's outperforming his expected metrics by a solid margin. While I do believe Stott can provide some low-end value moving forward, I'd be looking to sell high right now if you can.

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