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We have a getaway day here, with only six games on the docket. I will do my best to provide the full props as usual, but I will not go overboard on a day like today. I recommend you all do the same. There are only two pitcher props on my card at the time of writing this. That said, there is still money to be made, so let's pick some winners.
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I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Thursday, May 18, 2023, in this article. I will continue to hone in on K props first, as they are the most lucrative, and we will follow that with some total base props. Let's look at some of the best MLB player props worth wagering on for today's games without further ado! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Taj Bradley OVER 4.5 strikeouts (+110 FanDuel Sportsbook)
The theme of today's article will be about young arms with strikeout stuff. Today's slate is led by two young pitchers making their debut season in the big leagues. Taj Bradley gets the call back up to the big leagues after he made a significant splash on the scene in his first three starts earlier this season. Bradley had a 2.35 SIERA, 38.3% K, 3.3% BB, and 11.5% SwStr in those starts. It's a tiny sample size, but those numbers are elite.
His opponent, the New York Mets, is a tough strikeout matchup. They own a 19.8% K and a 103 wRC+. We are not attacking this based on the Mets but on Bradley himself (another article theme). Bradley struck out eight, nine, and six batters in his three starts earlier this season. He has struggled over his last three starts in the minor leagues, but I am banking on Bradley returning to his early season form. This is his chance to hang around the big league scene for a while, and I know he also knows that.
Eury Perez OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-122 FanDuel Sportsbook)
For some reason, the books decided to open Perez at 4.5 strikeouts again after we smashed it last week in his debut. In his big league debut, Perez had a 35.0% K and a 17.0% SwStr. The SwStr is elite, and although that high of a number will certainly regress, he has shown elite strikeout numbers at every level of the minor leagues he's pitched at. This season in Double-A, before his call-up, he had a 35.9% K. He's never been below 31% K at any level of the minor leagues. The strikeout stuff is there.
The matchup against the Nationals is not a good one for strikeouts. The Nationals own a 20.1% K against right-hand pitching. They are not a scary offense, as they have a 78 wRC+. I expect Perez to be able to get outs and pitch deep into this game. In his six starts in Double-A this season, Perez did not strike out less than five in any start. The matchup isn't elite, but the stuff is. I'm banking on Perez to get to at least five strikeouts here.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Ryan Mountcastle OVER 1.5 total bases (-115 DraftKings SportsBook)
Ryan Mountcastle will face Tyler Anderson this afternoon in Camden Yards. Anderson has struggled so far in 2023. He has a 5.78 SIERA, 14.4% K, 10.9% BB. He has a 1.43 HR/9, mainly because he is getting hit at a 40.2% hard hit and a 40.0% FB. Nothing Anderson is doing at the moment is even average.
Anderson's struggles get even worst against right-hand batters. He has a .239 ISO, .377 wOBA, 39.6% hard hit, and a 42.1% FB against the split. This is where we can take advantage of the matchup with Ryan Mountcastle. He is a lefty masher, which is an elite spot for him. Mountcastle has a .416 wOBA, .351 ISO, and a 52.1% hard hit. I will also bet on his home run prop if you want to tail that.
Anthony Rizzo OVER 1.5 total bases (+145 DraftKings SportsBook)
Anthony Rizzo has been on a tear over his last ten games. As you see in Thunder Dan's tweet below, he attacked him when facing Alek Manoah earlier this week. We will be going right back to the well as he gets another matchup against a right-hand pitcher in Jose Berrios, who struggles against his handiness. Berrios in 2023 has .364 wOBA, .222 ISO, and a 33.8% hard hit against left-hand batters. We talked about his last ten games, but Rizzo has a .366 wOBA, .235 ISO, and a 46.2% hard hit this season. This is another perfect matchup for him here, and the number at +145 is highly lucrative.
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