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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Tuesday, May 16, 2023. Use Dan Palyo's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sports books.
Usually, I have to wait all week to join all of you for some more MLB prop action as I cover the weekends for my prop picks team, but I am getting called into action early this week to cover for my good buddy John today. That means I can remind you of just how awesome our cover boy Mitch Keller was on Sunday as he easily eclipsed six strikeouts against Baltimore and finished with a career-high 13 Ks over 7 strong innings. Let's see if we can't have some more good fortune on some pitching props today and I will have a few hitting props as well.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Tuesday, May 16, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck today!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Clayton Kershaw OVER 7.5 strikeouts (-105 DraftKings)
The future Hall-of-Fame Southpaw is in the midst of an impressive stretch right now. It's been a few years since we have seen Kershaw be this dominant in terms of strikeouts, but he has collected 39 of them over his last 31 innings pitched.
After dominating the Brew Crew in his last start, he gets another awesome matchup for Ks today as he faces the Minnesota Twins at home. Minnesota is striking out 27% of the time against lefties this year and they've managed just a 76 wRC+ as well. Kershaw needs 8 Ks tonight to pay off, so he will need to be efficient and pitch pretty deep into this one, so it's a good sign that he's gone 6+ innings in all but one start this year and that he's been allowed to run that pitch count up into the 90-100 pitch range often.
Clayton Kershaw, 92mph Fastball and 88mph Slider, Overlay pic.twitter.com/siAihNch9p
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 10, 2023
He has 8 or more strikeouts now in four of his last five starts. The combination of his current form, this matchup, and the fact he's pitching at home gives me some confidence that we get a vintage Kershaw outing tonight.
Kevin Gausman OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-120 DraftKings)
The only pitcher going today with a higher strikeout rate than Kershaw (29%) is Gausman, who has a sparkling 34% strikeout rate and an incredibly low walk rate of only 3%. Gausman has been simply awesome in six of his eight starts this year, but we should acknowledge that when he's bad (the other two starts) he can be really bad, too.
I'm not going to get too hung up on those two blow-up starts, I think pretty highly of Gausman and his stuff. It's true the Yankees are trending back up in the right direction offensively, but Gausman is so good when he's working ahead of hitters and his splitter can be devasting to righties and lefties alike.
We just need seven from Kevin - and that's something he has done in all but two starts. He whiffed 11 Yankees in his first start against them back in April, too. I like betting on the big dogs tonight to do their thing, so I am adding Gausman to the card to go with Kershaw, and let's hope we see two dominating outings tonight.
Seth Lugo OVER 4.5 strikeouts (-165 DraftKings)
Okay, let's go after some low-hanging fruit here with the third pick. Lugo is not a big-time strikeout pitcher by any means. In fact, his 21.7% strikeout rate is right around the league average. But he's facing a KC team that is whiffing over 25% of the time against righties. And Michael Wacha - YES, that dude - got 11 Royals swinging last night!
Lugo has five or more strikeouts in all but one start this year. Sometimes he ends up with five right on the nose, so we might sweat that last K, but he usually finds a way to get there. The odds are not ideal, but this is a nice parlay piece if you want to play him with another low-K guy who has some juiced-up odds (like Josiah Gray over 4.5, for example).
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Jose Ramirez OVER 1.5 total bases (+110 DraftKings)
J-Ram had himself a nice series against the Angels over the weekend, going 5-10 with three doubles. We haven't seen the home runs from him yet this season, but in my mind, he still remains one of the most consistent hitters in baseball and it's not likely going to be long before he's hitting over .300 again.
He matches up with Lance Lynn today, who has struggled quite a bit this season with a 7.51 ERA. He's not that bad and I am sure he will improve on that number this year, but he's still getting barreled up by opposing hitters over 10% of the time and has some very poor splits against LHH. Ramirez is a switch-hitter who will hit lefty against Lynn today and he happens to have some great BvP in his career in this matchup as well. J-Ram is 10-32 against Lynn with four home runs and two doubles. And he's only struck out four times, too. I love these odds as a double today or a two-hit game for J-Ram is something that he does with regularity.
Nolan Arenado OVER 1.5 total bases (-105 DraftKings)
After a relatively slow start, Arenado is officially RED-HOT as he has homered in four straight games and has a six-game hitting streak. He has multiple hits in three of those contests as well. Today he and this surging St. Louis offense will face veteran Wade Miley. And while I respect what Miley has done to make himself a serviceable pitcher late in his career, I still think he's going to be overmatched today against these Cardinal righties.
Nolan Arenado homers for a FOURTH straight game! 😳 pic.twitter.com/sAQSbTm1r3
— MLB (@MLB) May 16, 2023
Arenado's teammate Paul Goldschmidt is hitting .500 against Miley in his career with a couple of home runs, while Nolan is hitting .360 against Miley in a slightly larger sample size. You could bet either of these guys (or both) today against Miley as both players have been elite against left-handed pitching in their careers. With Miley pitching to contact a lot in this stage of his career, there's a good chance that these powerful RHHs make some quality contact today. Like Lynn, Miley owns a 10% barrel rate this year and he's also coming off his worst outing of the season as he gave up 7 runs to the Dodgers his last time out.
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